تجزیه و تحلیل اثرات اقتصاد سایه بر درآمد سرانه: با و بدون درنظر گرفتن مسأله درونزایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اراک، اراک، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اراک، اراک، ایران.

چکیده

براساس ادبیات نظری، رویکردهای گوناگون و گاه متباینی دربارۀ نحوۀ اثرگذاری اقتصاد سایه‌ای بر درآمد سرانه وجود دارد؛ بنابراین، نظر به اهمیت موضوع برای سیاست‌گذاری‌های اقتصادی، این مطالعه تأثیرات اقتصاد سایه‌ای بر درآمد سرانه بازۀ زمانی ۲۰۰۵ تا 2017میلادی را با استفاده از روش داده‌های تابلویی و روش حداقل مربعات دو مرحله‌ای پانلی (G2SLS) در دو گروه از کشورهای درحال توسعه و توسعه‌یافته مورد سنجش قرار داده است. براساس نتایج برآورد با رویکرد دادهای تابلویی در هردو گروه کشورها، حجم اقتصاد سایۀ تأثیر منفی بر درآمد سرانه داشت. همچنین، تأثیرات اقتصاد سایه بر درآمد سرانه در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته به‌مراتب از کشورهای درحال توسعه بیشتر بود که در تناقض با مبانی نظری به‌نظر آمد. نتایج حاصل از تخمین مدل با فرض درونزایی اقتصاد سایه،  این تأثیرات برای کشورهای درحال توسعه منفی و معنی‌دار شد؛ اما برای کشورهای توسعه‌یافته تأثیرات از معنی‌داری لازم برخوردار نبود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the Effects of Shadow Economy on Per Capita Income: Considering and Non-Considering the Problem of Endogeneity

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somaie Najafian 1
  • Mohammd Hassan Fotros 2
  • Gholamali Haji 3
1 Ph.D. Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, Arak Branch, Arak, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Economics, School of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management, Islamic Azad University, Arak Branch, Arak, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Based on the theoretical literature, there are different and sometimes conflicting approaches about the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income. Considering the importance of this issue for economic policy, this study examines the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income for the period of 2005- 2017 using a panel generalized two stage estimator (PG2SLS) in two groups of developing and developed countries. Based on the results obtained in both groups, the size of the shadow economy has a negative effect on the per capita income. Also, the effects of the shadow economy on per capita income in developed countries are much higher than in developing countries, which is somewhat countrary to the theoretical framework. Stimating the model with the assumption of endogeneity of the shadow economy, for developing countries these effects have become negative and significant, but for developed countries these effects do not have the necessary significance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Shadow Economy
  • Per Capita Income
  • Developed Countries
  • Developing Countries
  • Panel Generalized Two-stage Least Squares
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