اثر سیاست‌های اعتباری بر نابرابری درآمد در ایران: رهیافت رگرسیون پانل کوانتایل تعمیم‌یافته

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشکدۀ امور اقتصادی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام‌نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های ارزیابی هر سیاست اقتصادی، بررسی آثار توزیعی آن می‌باشد؛ به‌همین جهت دولت‌ها تلاش دارند، قبل از اجرای سیاست، از توزیع مجدد درآمد و تأثیرات احتمالی چنین سیاست‌هایی به‌صورت کمی و ملموس آگاهی داشته باشند؛ از این‌رو در مطالعۀ حاضر و برای نخستین‌‌بار در اقتصاد ایران با داده‌های فصلی و روش کوانتایل تعمیم‌یافته به بررسی اثرات توزیعی سیاست‌های اعتباری بر نابرابری درآمدی در استان‌های کشور پرداخته شد. بر این‌اساس نتایج نشان‌داد که در کوانتایل ابتدایی (کوانتایل 0.05) اعطای اعتبارات به بخش بازرگانی و خدمات اثر مثبت و معنادار بر نابرابری درآمد و همچنین اعتبارات بخش کشاورزی، مسکن و صنعت و معدن اثر منفی و معنادار بر نابرابری درآمد استان‌ها داشته‌اند. در کوانتایل میانه (کوانتایل 0.5) اعطای اعتبارات به بخش‌های کشاورزی و بازرگانی دارای اثر منفی و اعطای تسهیلات به بخش مسکن، خدمات و صنعت و معدن اثر مثبت بر نابرابری درآمد بوده است. همچنین در کوانتایل بالایی (کوانتایل 0.95)، تسهیلات اعطایی به بخش‌های کشاورزی، بازرگانی و صنعت و معدن اثر منفی و همچنین اعتبارات بخش‌های مسکن و خدمات اثر مثبت بر نابرابری در استان‌های ایران داشته است. درخصوص اثر سرمایۀ انسانی و رشد اقتصادی بر نابرابری درآمد نیز نتایج نشان‌داد که در استان‌های کشور افزایش رشد اقتصادی و سرمایۀ انسانی به‌دلیل ایجاد فرصت‌های بیشتر برای افزایش درآمد، موجب کاهش نابرابری درآمد شده است. براساس نتایج تحقیق، در تمامی کوانتایل‌ها، افزایش اثر تورم و موجودی سرمایۀ موجب نابرابری بیشتر درآمد در استان‌ها شده است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Credit Policies on Income Inequality in Iran: Generalized Quantile Panel Regression Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri 1
  • Amirali Farhang 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Research Institute of Economic Affairs, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the most important indicators for evaluating any economic policy is to examine its distributive effects, so governments try to be aware of the redistribution of revenue and the possible effects of such policies in a quantitative and tangible manner before implementing the policy. Therefore, in the present study, for the first time in the Iranian economy, with quarterly data and generalized quantum method, the distributive effects of credit policies on income inequality in the provinces of the country were investigated. Based on this, the results showed that in the primary quantile (0.05), credit to the trade and services sector had a positive and significant effect on income inequality and also credits to agriculture, housing, industry and mining had a negative and significant effect on income inequality in the provinces. In the Middle Quantile (Quantile 0.5), lending to the agricultural and commercial sectors had a negative effect, and lending to the housing, services, industry, and mining sectors had a positive effect on income inequality. Also in the upper quantum (Quantile 0.95), facilities granted to the agricultural, commercial, industrial and mining sectors had a negative effect, as well as loans to the housing and services sectors had a positive effect on inequality in the provinces of Iran. Regarding the effect of human capital and economic growth on income inequality, the results showed that in the provinces of the country, increasing economic growth and human capital due to creating more opportunities to increase income, has reduced income inequality. According to the research results, in all quantiles, the increase in the effect of inflation and capital stock has caused more income inequality in the provinces.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Income Distribution
  • Credit Policies
  • Generalized Quantile

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فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 12، شماره 45
فروردین 1402
صفحه 177-202

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