مصرف انرژی، مصرف الکتریسته و توسعه انسانی در ایران (رویکرد آزمون باند)

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

چکیده

بیشتر مطالعات انجام شده در خصوص ارتباط بین مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی، از شاخص­های تولید ناخالص ملی، تولید ناخالص داخلی و یا از تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه برای اندازه­گیری رشد اقتصادی استفاده کرده­اند که قادر به توضیح در مورد افزایش توسعه اقتصادی و توسعه انسانی نیستند. این مطالعه با استفاده از روش خودتوضیح با وفقه­های گسترده و آزمون باند به بررسی رابطه بین مصرف سرانه انرژی، مصرف سرانه الکتریسته و توسعه انسانی به­عنوان شاخص رفاه ایران برای دوره­ی زمانی 1350 تا 1390 می­پردازد. نتایج مطالعه نشان می­دهد که در کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت مصرف سرانه انرژی روی شاخص توسعه انسانی تأثیر منفی و معناداری دارد؛ اما مصرف سرانه الکتریسته تأثیر مثبت و معناداری روی شاخص توسعه انسانی در کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت دارد. نتایج نشان می­دهند که ضریب تأثیرگذاری مصرف انرژی سرانه الکتریسته در حدود دو برابر ضریب مصرف انرژی در بلندمدت است. همچنین بررسی رابطه علّی نشـان می­دهد که در بلند­مدت علّیت دوطرفه میان مصرف انرژی و توسعه انسانی و علّیت دوطرفه میان مصرف انرژی الکتریسته و شاخص توسعه انسانی وجود دارد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Energy consumption, Electricity consumption and Human Development in Iran: A Bounds Test Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad hassan fotros 1
  • esmaeel torkamani 2
چکیده [English]

Studies on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth have mostly used per capita gross domestic product or GDP to measure economic growth. Such an approach cannot explain the increase in economic development and human development. This paper uses ARDL method and Bound tests to examine the relationship between per capita energy consumption, per capita electricity consumption and human development as a proxy of human well-being for period 1971 to 2011 in Iran. Results indicate that per capita consumption of energy in the short-term and in the long-term have a negative impact on the human development index. Per capita electricity consumption has a significant positive impact on human development in the short-term and in the long-term. Results also show that in the long-term, the impact of per capita electricity consumption is about two times the impact of energy consumption. Results of causality tests show a two-way causality relationship between energy consumption and human development and, a two-way causality relationship between electricity consumption and human development in the long-term.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Consumption
  • Electricity consumption
  • Human Development Index
  • Bounds test

سن، آمارتیا (1381)؛ توسعه به مثابه آزادی، ترجمه وحید محمودی، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران.

فطرس، محمد حسن و ترکمنی، اسماعیل (1391)؛ توسعه انسانی تعدیل شده و پایداری رشد اقتصادی؛ مقایسه تطبیقی کشورهای توسعه یافته و درحال توسعه، فصلنامه پژوهش­های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، سال دوم، شماره7: 92-59.

نوفرستی، محمد (1391)؛ ریشه واحد و همجمعی در اقتصاد سنجی، تهران، موسسه­ی خدمات فرهنگی رسا، چاپ چهارم.

Alam, I. and Quazi, R. (2003); Determinant of Capital Flight:  An Econometric Case Study of Bangladesh; International Review of Applied Economics, Vol.17, 85-103.

Banerji, A., Dolado, J., Galbraith, J.W.  & D.F. Hendry (1993); Co-Integration Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of non-Stationary Data. Oxford University Press.

Banerji, A., Dolado, J., Mestre, R (1998); Error- correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework; Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.19, 267-283

Dias Rubens A, Mattos Cristiano R, Balestieri José AP (2006); The limits of human development and the use of energy and natural resources; Energy Policy, Vol.34, 1026-1031.

Ediger, SE. and Tathdil, H. (2007); Energy as an indicator of human indicator development: a statistical approach; Energy Policy, Vol.35, 2969-2977.

Ferguson, R.Wilkinson, W and R. Hill (2000); Electricity use and economic development; Energy policy, Vol. 28, 923- 934

Jumbe, B.L Charls (2004); Cointegration and Causality between Electricity consumption and economic growth Empirical Evidence from Malawi; Energy Economic, Vol. 26, 61-68.

Kanagawa, M. and Nakata,T. (2008); Assessment of access to electricity and the socio-economic impacts in rural areas of developing countries; Energy Policy, Vol. 36, 2016-2029.

Kraft, J. Kraft, A. (1978); On the relationship between energy and GNP; Journal of Energy Development, Vol. 3, 401- 403

Martınez Daniel M, and Ebenhack Ben W (2008); Understanding the role of energy consumption in human development through the use of saturation phenomena;  Energy Policy,Vol. 36,1430-1435.

Mazur, Allan (2011); Does increasing energy or electricity consumption improve quality of life in industrial nations?; Energy Policy, Vol. 39, 2568-2572.

Nadia S, Ouedraogo ( 2013); Energy consumption and Human Development: Evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model; Energy, Vol. 63, 28-41

Narayan, P.K. and Prasad A. (2008); Electricity consumption-real GDP causality nexus: evidence from a Bootstrapped causality test for 30 OECD countries; Energy Policy, Vol. 36, 910-918.

Narayan, P.K. and Narayan, S. (2005); Estimating Income and Price Elasticity of  Imports  for  Fiji  in  a  cointegration  Framework;  Economic  Modeling,  Vol. 22, 423-438

Narayan, P.K. and Smyth, R. (2009); Multivariate Granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries;  Energy Policy, Vol. 37, 229-236

Niu, S. Jia, Y. Wang, W. He R, Hu L, Liu Y. (2013); Electricity consumption and human development level: a comparative analysis based on panel data for 50 countries; International Journal of Electric Power & Energy System, Vol. 53, 338-  347

Ozturk, Ilhan (2010); A literature review on energy-growth nexus; Energy Policy, Vol. 38, 340-349.

Ozturk I, and Acaravci, A. (2011); Electricity consumption and real GDP causality nexus: evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach for 11 MENA countries;  Applied Energy, Vol. 88, 2885-2892.

Pasternak, Alan D. (2000); Global energy futures and human development: a framework for analysis; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, October, US Department of Energy report UCRL-ID-14077327.

Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & R.J. Smith. (2001); Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship; Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.16, 289-326.

Pesaran, M. H. and Y. Shin (1999); An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach to Cointtegration Analysis; Chapter 11, Cambridge University, Cambridge.

Pirlogea, Corina (2012); The human development relies on energy. Panel data evidence; Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, 496-501

Wu QS, Clulow V, Maslyuk S. (2010); Energy consumption inequality and human development; Presented at the 17th International conference on management science & engineering, Melbourne, Australia, November, 1398-1409.