مصرف انرژی، مصرف الکتریسته و توسعه انسانی در ایران (رویکرد آزمون باند)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

چکیده

بیشتر مطالعات انجام شده در خصوص ارتباط بین مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی، از شاخص­های تولید ناخالص ملی، تولید ناخالص داخلی و یا از تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه برای اندازه­گیری رشد اقتصادی استفاده کرده­اند که قادر به توضیح در مورد افزایش توسعه اقتصادی و توسعه انسانی نیستند. این مطالعه با استفاده از روش خودتوضیح با وفقه­های گسترده و آزمون باند به بررسی رابطه بین مصرف سرانه انرژی، مصرف سرانه الکتریسته و توسعه انسانی به­عنوان شاخص رفاه ایران برای دوره­ی زمانی 1350 تا 1390 می­پردازد. نتایج مطالعه نشان می­دهد که در کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت مصرف سرانه انرژی روی شاخص توسعه انسانی تأثیر منفی و معناداری دارد؛ اما مصرف سرانه الکتریسته تأثیر مثبت و معناداری روی شاخص توسعه انسانی در کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت دارد. نتایج نشان می­دهند که ضریب تأثیرگذاری مصرف انرژی سرانه الکتریسته در حدود دو برابر ضریب مصرف انرژی در بلندمدت است. همچنین بررسی رابطه علّی نشـان می­دهد که در بلند­مدت علّیت دوطرفه میان مصرف انرژی و توسعه انسانی و علّیت دوطرفه میان مصرف انرژی الکتریسته و شاخص توسعه انسانی وجود دارد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Energy consumption, Electricity consumption and Human Development in Iran: A Bounds Test Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad hassan fotros 1
  • esmaeel torkamani 2
چکیده [English]

Studies on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth have mostly used per capita gross domestic product or GDP to measure economic growth. Such an approach cannot explain the increase in economic development and human development. This paper uses ARDL method and Bound tests to examine the relationship between per capita energy consumption, per capita electricity consumption and human development as a proxy of human well-being for period 1971 to 2011 in Iran. Results indicate that per capita consumption of energy in the short-term and in the long-term have a negative impact on the human development index. Per capita electricity consumption has a significant positive impact on human development in the short-term and in the long-term. Results also show that in the long-term, the impact of per capita electricity consumption is about two times the impact of energy consumption. Results of causality tests show a two-way causality relationship between energy consumption and human development and, a two-way causality relationship between electricity consumption and human development in the long-term.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Consumption
  • Electricity consumption
  • Human Development Index
  • Bounds test
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