نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
In this study, we aim to investigate and forecast the consequences of exchange rate increase on major macroeconomic variables of Iran during 1976-2014. For this purpose, we used a short scale structural macro-econometric model which has been estimated by the new co-integration approach. The results show that the negative effects of a graduate increase in exchange rate is less than the same effects in a sudden increase in exchange rate. In the first scenario (sudden increase in exchange rate), inflation rate, economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %21.6, %4.7 and %8.6 respectively in the first year after shock. In the second Scenario (graduate increase in exchange rate), inflation rate, economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %17.2, %4.99 and %7.4 respectively in the first year after shock.
کلیدواژهها English
