ارزیابی آثار کلان اقتصادی تأمین مخارج دولت در چارچوب بانک‌داری ذخیرۀ کامل: رهیافت DSGE

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش بررسی آثار مخارج دولت بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد ایران در شرایط بانک‌داری ذخیرۀ کامل است. برای دستیابی به این هدف، یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی کینزین‌های جدید با درنظر گرفتن سیستم بانک‌داری ذخیرۀ کامل (FRB) و با لحاظ واقعیت‌های اقتصاد ایران طراحی و سپس به بررسی آثار تکانه تحت دو سناریو تأمین مالی -با و بدون ایجاد پول- پرداخته شده است. پس از تعیین مقادیر ورودی الگو و برآورد پارامترها با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی اقتصاد ایران طی دورۀ 1399-1370 به روش تخمین بیزین نتایج حاصل از شبیه‌سازی متغیرهای مدل‌، بیان‌گر اعتبار مدل‌ در توصیف نوسانات اقتصاد ایران است. بررسی پویایی‌های الگو بیانگر آن است که واکنش متغیرهای مهم اقتصاد کلان مانند: تولید، تورم، مصرف و حجم‌پول به تکانۀ مخارج دولت تحت دو سناریو بسیار مشابه هستند؛ به‌طورکلی، خلق پول در سیستم بانکی با ذخایر کامل منجر به کاهش بدهی‌ دولت می‌شود. اثربخشی سیاست پولی افزایش می‌یابد، زیرا با افزایش سپرده‌ها، ذخایر بانک مرکزی به همان میزان افزایش می‌یابد یا به‌عبارت دیگر پشتوانۀ صددرصد سپرده‌ها اتفاق می‌افتد که این خود منجر به کاهش عرضۀ پول بدون پشتوانه می‌شود. همچنین نتایج نظری و تجربی مؤید آن است که تحت بانک‌داری ذخیرۀ صددرصدی پولی‌سازی کسری بودجۀ دولت، علاوه‌بر کاهش چشمگیر بدهی‌های دولت منجر به کاهش بیشتر تورم، افزایش مصرف و رونق تولید می‌شود؛ به‌عبارت دیگر، FRB ظرفیت بیشتری برای سیاست‌‌ مالی ایجاد می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Government Expenditure in the Full-Reserve Banking: DSGE Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farideh Khodadadi 1
  • Hossein Samsami 2
  • Hoesein Tavakolian 3
1 PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is the investigating of the government spending effects on the important macroeconomic variables in the Iranian economy in terms of full reserve banking. To achieve this goal, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the new Keynesians is designed by considering the full reserve banking system (FRB) and in view of the Iranian economy realities and then examines the effects of the impulse under two financing scenarios -with and without money creation. After the determining of  the model input values and estimating the parameters by using quarterly data of Iran’s economy during the period of 1991-2020 by the Bayesian estimation method, the results of the model variables simulation indicate the validation of the model in describing the fluctuations of the Iran’s economy. Examining the dynamics of the model shows that the response of the important macroeconomic variables such as production, inflation, consumption and money supply to the impulse of government spending are very similar under the two scenarios. in general, money creation under full reserve banking system causes the reducing of the government debt. The effectivity of the monetary policy increases because by increasing of the deposits, the reserves of the central bank increase by the same amount, or in other words, one hundred present reserves for deposits occurs, which in turn leads to a decrease in money without support or Money supply. Theoretical and empirical results also confirm that under one hundred present reserves banking, monetization of the government budget deficit, in addition to a significant reduction in the government debt, leads to a further reduction in the inflation, increasing of the consumption and the boom in the production. In other words, the FRB generate more capacity for fiscal policy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Full Reserve Banking
  • Fractional Reserve Banking
  • Money Creation
  • Budget Deficit
  • Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

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فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 12، شماره 45
فروردین 1402
صفحه 9-45

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