حباب انتظارات عقلایی قیمت مسکن در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

چکیده

 از آنجا که بخش مسکن ارتباط  زیادی با سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی دارد نوسان‌های قیمت این  دارایی می‌تواند هزینه‌های گزافی درپی داشته باشد؛ هم‌چنین تشخیص این‌که افزایش قیمت‌ها ریشه در شرایط بنیادی اقتصاد دارد و یا تنها ناشی از حباب است، می‌تواند منجر به اتخاذ تصمیمات و سیاست‌های متفاوتی بشود؛ بنابراین موضوع کشف حباب‌های قیمتی مسکن می‌تواند به‌عنوان یک  سیستم هشداردهندۀ اولیه جهت جلوگیری از پیامدهای ناگوار اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. مطالعۀ حاضر، فرضیۀ وجود حباب در بازار مسکن ایران در طول سال‌های  (98-1385)را با استفاده از مدل بلانچارد و واتسون مورد آزمون قرار می‌دهد. براساس تئوری، احتمال وقوع بازدهی منفی قیمت سهام در شرایط وجود حباب، کاهش می‌یابد؛ همچنین تابع مخاطره ازطریق رگرسیون لجستیک برآورد شده است و یافته‌های حاصل از آن وجود حباب در بازار مسکن در دورۀ زمانی مورد بررسی را در استان‌های ایران تأیید می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Rational Expectation House Price Bubbles in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Somayeh Parsa 1
  • Nazar Dahmardeh 2
  • Marziyeh Esfandiari 3
1 Ph.D candidate, Department of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Economics,University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Since the housing sector has an intricate relationship with other sectors of the economy, fluctuations in the price can be costly. Also, rising prices are either rooted in the underlying conditions of the economy or simply caused by the bubble, leading to different policies. Therefore, house price bubble can be considered as an early warning system to prevent adverse economic consequences. The present paper applies the theory of rational expectation bubble in the Iranian housing market during the years 2006-2020 using the Blanchard and Watson model. The theory implies that negative returns on house prices are less likely to occur if the bubbles exist. The risk assessment is, however, estimated by linear logistic function. The existence of bubble in housing market is confirmed based on 30 provinces.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Price Bubble
  • Housing Market
  • Hazard Function
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