رابطۀ پیچیدگی اقتصادی و انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن در ایران با استفاده از الگوی غیرخطی NARDL

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه بزرگمهر قائنات، قائنات ایران

چکیده

طی دهه‌های گذشته، تهدیدهای فزایندۀ گرمایش زمین در ارتباط با تغییرات آب‌وهوایی توجه به گازهای گلخانه‌ای، به‌ویژه دی‌اکسیدکربن را به‌عنوان عامل اصلی گرمایش زمین به خود جلب کرده است. تأثیرات نامطلوب تغییرات آب‌وهوایی نه‌تنها به محیط‌زیست، بلکه به همۀ بخش‌های جامعه و اقتصاد در سراسر جهان آسیب می‌رساند. پیشرفت‌های تکنولوژیکی یکی از عوامل مهمی است که می‌تواند مقدار عناصر آلاینده نسبت به‌میزان تولید اقتصادی در کشورها را کاهش دهد. شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی از شاخص‌هایی است که سطح دانش و مهارت‌های موردنیاز در تولید را نشان می‌دهد و معیاری برای توسعۀ اقتصادی است. در این مطالعه ارتباط غیرخطی میان شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی و انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن با بهره‌گیری از الگوی غیرخطی خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های توزیعی در بازۀ زمانی 1398-1350 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج حاصل از الگو حاکی از آن است که با افزایش پیچیدگی اقتصادی، انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن 2% کاهش می‌یابد و با کاهش پیچیدگی اقتصادی، انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن 12%  و 1% در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت افزایش می‌یابد. قابل ذکر است که با توجه به پایین بودن میزان پیچیدگی اقتصادی در ایران، این شاخص ضریب کوچک‌تری را نسبت به سایر متغیرها دارد؛ هم‌چنین اثر تکانه‌های مثبت و منفی تولید ناخالص داخلی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن در بلندمدت در ایران متقارن است، درحالی‌که اثر تکانه‌های مثبت و منفی پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن نامتقارن است. قابل ذکر است اثر تکانۀ منفی پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر انتشار دی‌اکسیدکربن بیش از اثر تکانۀ مثبت پیچیدگی اقتصادی است.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Relationship between Economic Complexity and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran Using NARDL Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Lalkhezri
  • Malihe Ashena
Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat, Qaenat, Iran
چکیده [English]

The undesirable impacts of climate change affect not only the environment, but all sectors of the society and the economy around the world. Technological advances are one of the factors that can reduce pollutants emissions relative to the amount of economic production. The index of economic complexity is one of the indicators that show the level of knowledge and skills required in the production of goods and is a measure of economic development. In this study, the nonlinear relationship between economic complexity index and carbon dioxide emissions has been investigated using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model during 1971-2018. The results of the model indicate that by an increase in economic complexity, carbon dioxide emissions decrease about 2 percent, and by a decrease in economic complexity, carbon dioxide emissions increase about 12 and 1 percent in the long and short term, respectively. It is noteworthy that due to the low level of economic complexity in Iran, this index has a smaller coefficient than other variables. Also, the results show that the effect of positive and negative shocks of GDP on carbon dioxide emissions in the long term in Iran is symmetric, while the effect of positive and negative shocks of economic complexity on carbon dioxide emissions is asymmetric. It should be noted, the effect of the negative shocks of economic complexity on carbon dioxide emissions is greater than the positive shocks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Complexity
  • energy intensity
  • Pollution Emissions
  • Iran
  • Asymmetric Effects
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