شوک نفت، سیاست پولی و اثر وثیقه‌ای در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته دکتری دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس، تهران، ایران

4 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ‌ایران

10.22084/aes.2020.22151.3111

چکیده

بحران مالی سال 2007، نقش دارایی‌های سرمایه‌ای در بروز نوسانات اقتصادی و ادوار تجاری را به‌خوبی نشان داد. دارایی‌های سرمایه‌ای با دارا بودن یک نقش دوگانه به‌عنوان عامل تولید و استفاده از آن به‌عنوان وثیقه برای دریافت وام از سیستم بانکی، از دو کانال مجزا بر بخش حقیقی اقتصاد اثرگذار بوده و منجر به تشدید نوسانات محصول و ادوار تجاری می‌گردد. شواهد تجربی اقتصاد ایران حاکی از این است که قیمت دارایی‌های سرمایه‌ای به علل مختلف در طول زمان در حال افزایش و نوسان بوده که از مهم‌ترین آن‌ها می‌توان به نقش درآمدهای نفتی و شوک‌های مربوطه اشاره کرد. بر همین‌اساس، درخصوص کانال اثر وثیقه‌ای این انتظار وجود دارد که با ایجاد یک شوک نفتی مثبت و افزایش درآمدهای نفتی، مخارج دولت و به‌تبع آن افزایش نقدینگی، قیمت دارایی‌های سرمایه‌ای بخش خصوصی، به‌عنوان یک وثیقه قابل‌قبول برای سیستم بانکی، افزایش یافته و همین مسئله منجر به افزایش میزان تسهیلات دریافتی بخش خصوصی، حجم سرمایه‌گذاری و به‌تبع آن تولید ناخالص داخلی گردد. به همین‌منظور این مطالعه با استفاده از داده‌های مربوط به دوره‌ی 96-1345 اقتصاد ایران و الگوی خودتوضیح برداری ساختاری (SVAR) به بررسی این مهم پرداخته است. نتایج حاصل از مدل، اثر وثیقه‌ای را برای دوره‌های کوتاه‌مدت تأیید می‌نماید؛ بنابراین درصورتی‌که سیاست‌گذار به‌دنبال تثبیت محصول در کوتاه‌مدت باشد، آنگاه لازم است که در قبال شوک‌های نفتی از سیاست ضد ادواری مناسب برای نحوه پرداخت تسهیلات به بخش خصوصی استفاده نماید تا از این‌طریق بتوان با کنترل حجم سرمایه‌گذاری بخش خصوصی به هدف موردنظر دست یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Oil Shock, Monetary Policy and Collateral Effect in Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Tahvili 1
  • Bahram Sahabi 2
  • Kazem Yavari 3
  • Nader Mehregan 4
1 Graduated PhD student in Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associated Professor, Department of Economical Science, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Economical Science, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The 2007 financial crisis clearly demonstrate the role of capital assets in the emergence of economic fluctuations and business cycles. Physical assets with a dual role as a factor in production and use as collateral to obtain loans from the banking system in two separate channels affect the real sector of the economy and lead to intensification of product fluctuations and business cycles. Emprical evidence of Iran’s economy indicates that the price of capital assets has been rising and fluctuating over time for various reasons, the most important of which are the role of oil revenues and related shocks. Accordingly, with regard to the collateral effect channel, there is an expectation that by creating a positive oil shock and increasing oil revenues, government spending and, consequently, liquidity, the price of private equity assets, as a acceptable collateral for the banking system, will increase. This issue will lead to an increase in the amount of loans received by the private sector, the volume of investment and output. For this purpose, this study has examined this important issue using data related to the period of 1966- 2017 of the Iranian economy and the model of structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). The results of the model confirm the effect of collateral in short periods. Therefore, it is suggested that if the policymaker seeks to stabilize the product in the short term, then it is necessary to adopt an appropriate countercyclical policy on how to pay loans to the private sector in order to control the volume of private sector investment and stabilize the output.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Physical Asset
  • Collateral Effect
  • Oil shock
  • Private investment
  • business cycle
  • Iran’s economy
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