Effect of credit easing Policy on recovery of Iran's economy: Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model approach

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

3 استاد پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

10.22084/aes.2021.23735.3250

چکیده

Using the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper examines the effects of credit easing policy on macroeconomic variables with an emphasis on production. For this purpose, a model has been applied including 5 sectors of household, enterprise, bank, government and central bank. Considering the dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy in the Iranian economy, the integrated constraint of the government and the central bank has been used. The model has been estimated using Bayesian method and quarterly time series data during the period 1991 to 2017. The results of Impulse Response Function show that the implementation of this policy has increased consumption, investment, government spending and ultimately production, which indicates the effectiveness of this unconventional monetary policy to get the economy out of recession. Also, in response to the positive impulse of the central bank's credit line to banks and the negative impulse of legal reserves, bank facilities have increased, which is in line with theoretical expectations. The impact of the negative impulse of interbank market rate has also led to an increase in production credits.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of credit easing Policy on recovery of Iran's economy: Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • hadiseh mohsani 1
  • mohammad nabi shahiki tash 2
  • mosayeb pahlavani 2
  • hosein mirjalili 3
1 usb
2 Director of Industrial Economics Department
3 Institute of Humanities and Cultural Studies
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Using the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper examines the effects of credit easing policy on macroeconomic variables with an emphasis on production. For this purpose, a model has been applied including 5 sectors of household, enterprise, bank, government and central bank. Considering the dominance of fiscal policy over monetary policy in the Iranian economy, the integrated constraint of the government and the central bank has been used. The model has been estimated using Bayesian method and quarterly time series data during the period 1991 to 2017. The results of Impulse Response Function show that the implementation of this policy has increased consumption, investment, government spending and ultimately production, which indicates the effectiveness of this unconventional monetary policy to get the economy out of recession. Also, in response to the positive impulse of the central bank's credit line to banks and the negative impulse of legal reserves, bank facilities have increased, which is in line with theoretical expectations. The impact of the negative impulse of interbank market rate has also led to an increase in production credits.
Keywords: recession ، credit easing، DSGE Model, Credit line, Bayesian method.
JEL: E58,E42.
1. Introduction
From the mid-2000s to 2019, the Iranian economy has faced several movements towards recession during the years 2007-2008, 2009-2010, 2014-2015 and 2018-2019. Comparison of GDP components in different economic activities shows that the negative growth of the agricultural sector and the decline in oil production and exports caused a significant reduction in GDP growth in 2007-2008. The significant and unprecedented decrease in GDP growth in the years 2010-2011 was due to exchange rate fluctuations and increased international sanctions. The economic growth in Iran in 2012, including oil, has been reported at -8.6%. In 2014, a positive economic growth was experienced and a rate of 2.3% was recorded for GDP, including oil. Economic growth in 1394 decreased again to -0.1% and marked the third economic recession during the years 2006 to 2015. In 2019, after two periods of positive GDP growth, the GDP was reported as -6.9%( Figure 1).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • recession ، credit easing، DSGE Model
  • Credit line
  • Bayesian method