بررسی امکان تشکیل اتحادیه پولی مشترک بین کشورهای عضو و ناظر سازمان همکاری شانگهای با استفاده از رهیافت خود رگرسیون برداری جهانی GVAR

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه مازندران

10.22084/aes.2019.18137.2797

چکیده

ایجاد اتحادیه پولی مشترک می‌تواند منافع اقتصادی قابل‌توجهی را از طریق کاهش هزینه‌های دادوستد، حذف ریسک‌های نرخ ارز و به‌تبع آن رشد تجارت به بار آورد. در این مطالعه به‌منظور بررسی امکان تشکیل اتحادیه پولی مشترک بین کشورهای عضو و ناظر سازمان همکاری شانگهای، اثر شوک‌های خارجی و داخلی بخش عرضه و تقاضا روی متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی این کشورها، با استفاده از مدل خود رگرسیون برداری جهانی GVAR و داده فصلی سال‌های 1996 تا 2015 بررسی شده است. نتایج بررسی اثرات شوک‌های خارجی بیانگر این است که به‌جز قرقیزستان، رفتار سایر کشورها به شوک‌های خارجی نسبتاً متقارن است. نتایج بیانگر واکنش آنی نسبتاً متقارن کشورها به سیاست‌های پولی داخلی است، به‌طوری‌که تنها در بخش خارجی اقتصاد شاهد عدم تقارن‌هایی در رابطه با نحوه اثرگذاری شوک‌های پولی بوده‌ایم. نتایج بررسی اثر شوک‌های بخش عرضه، عکس‌العمل‌ها نامتقارن‌تر متغیرها مدل در مقایسه با شوک‌های خارجی را نشان می‌دهد؛ به‌طوری‌که بیشترین عدم تقارن را می‌توان در اثرگذاری شوک‌های بخش عرضه بر روی نرخ بهره کشورها مشاهده کرد؛ نتایج فوق ساختارهای سیاست‌گذاری متفاوت بانک‌های مرکزی کشورهای موردبررسی را نشان می‌دهد. از طرف دیگر در رابطه با اقتصاد ایران و قرقیزستان، شاهد عکس‌العمل متفاوت متغیرهای بخش خارجی در مقایسه با سایر کشورها هستیم به‌طوری‌که نتایج فوق، تفاوت‌های موجود در نظام‌های ارزی یا سایر ساختاری‌های بخش خارجی این کشورها را نسبت به سایر کشورها نشان می‌دهد. نتایج نهایی بیانگر تقارن بیشتر اثرگذاری شوک‌های موردبررسی در کشورهای چین، هندوستان و روسیه نسبت به ایران و قرقیزستان است، به‌طوری‌که امکان تشکیل اتحادیه پولی بین این کشورها بیشتر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the possibility of forming a common monetary union between Member and Observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization using Global Vector Auto Regression model GVAR

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samira Karami 1
  • Ahmad Jafari Samimi 2
  • amir mansoor tehranchian 3
1 PhD student economics at Mazandaran University
2 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Mazandaran University
3 Asistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Mazandaran University
چکیده [English]

The creation of a common monetary union could bring significant economic gains by reducing transaction costs, eliminating exchange rate risks, and consequently increasing trade and capital. In this study, in order to investigate the possibility of forming a common monetary union between Member and Observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the effect of external and internal shocks on the supply and demand side on the macroeconomic variables of these countries, using the GVAR Global Vector Regression Model and seasonal data for years 1996 to 2015 is investigated. The results of the study of the effects of external shocks indicate that, apart from Kyrgyzstan, the behavior of other countries is relatively symmetrical to external shocks. The results represent an equally symmetric reaction of the countries to domestic monetary policies, so that only in the foreign sector of the economy we have seen asymmetries about the effect of monetary shocks. The results of the study of the effects of shocks on the supply sector show the more asymmetric reactions of the variables of the model in comparison with external shocks; so that the greatest asymmetry can be seen in the impact of supply shocks on the interest rate of countries; the results outlines the different policy structures of the central banks of the countries under consideration. On the other hand, in relation to the economy of Iran and Kyrgyzstan, we see a different reaction of the foreign sector variables in comparison with other countries, so that the above results indicate differences in foreign exchange regimes or other foreign sector structures of these countries compared to other countries. The final results indicate that there is a greater symmetry of the impact of the shocks under consideration in the countries of China, India and Russia relative to Iran and Kyrgyzstan, so that it is possible to form a monetary union between these countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary shocks
  • Member and Observer states of the Shanghai Cooperation
  • GVAR
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