تأثیر تورم بر رابطه علّی توسعه مالی-رشد اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بجنورد

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشگاه علوم انسانی و مطالعات فرهنگی

10.22084/aes.2019.17671.2752

چکیده

با وجود آن‌که نظریه غالب اقتصادی، رابطه‎ی مثبت میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی را مفروض می‎داند، اما برخی شواهد تجربی حاکی از آن است که شدت این رابطه و حتی علامت آن، به شرایط مختلف اقتصادی کشورها بستگی دارد. یکی از مهم‏ترین تعیین‏کننده‏های رابطه مالی-رشد، نرخ تورم است. خصوصاً در بسیاری از کشورهای درحال‎توسعه که سطوح بالاتر تورم و ثبات کمتر اقتصاد کلان را به‌طور مستمر تجربه کرده‏اند، مطالعه نقش‏آفرینی تورم در رابطه مالی-رشد اهمیتی مضاعف دارد. مقاله حاضر با به‌کارگیری الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری، به انجام آزمون علّیت سه‏متغیره میان رشد اقتصادی، توسعه مالی، و نرخ تورم در ایران طی سال‏های 1961 تا 2016 می‏پردازد. در مقایسه با نتایج آزمون علّیت دومتغیره، نتایج آزمون علّیت سه‏متغیره نشان می‏دهد که علّیت معکوس از رشد به برخی از شاخص‏های توسعه مالی، به دلیل نرخ‏های تورم بالا است. به‌علاوه، تورم پایدار بالا در ایران، علّیت برخی دیگر از شاخص‏های توسعه مالی به سمت رشد اقتصادی را تضعیف می‏کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Inflation on Finance-Growth Causality in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • masoud nikooghadam 1
  • Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi 2
1 Assistant professor of economics, University of Bojnord, Iran.
2 ail.com" Aboutorabi Assistant Professor in Economics, Institute for Humanitie
چکیده [English]

Dominant economic theory assumes a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. Contradictorily some empirical evidence shows that the strength of this relation and even its sign heavily depends on economic circumstances of each country. One of the most important determinants of finance-growth nexus is inflation. Specially, in many developing countries which have been experienced higher inflation and poor macroeconomic stability, studying the role of inflation on finance-growth nexus is crucial. This paper tests tri-variate causality among economic growth, financial development and inflation rate in Iran during 1961 to 2016 by using VECM model. Comparing two-variate and tri-variate causality tests reveals that adverse causality from growth to some financial development indicators is caused by high rates of inflation. Moreover, high stable inflation in Iran weakens the causality from some other financial development indicators to economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • financial development
  • financial stability
  • inflation
  • Economic growth
  • causality test

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