بررسی رابطه بدهی خارجی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران: با تأکید بر نقش سیاست کلان اقتصادی

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز

2 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

استقراض­ خارجی در سال­های اخیر، نه تنها برای کشورهای در حال‌توسعه، بلکه برای کشورهای توسعه­یافته نیز به مشکلی مهم تبدیل شده است. در بسیاری از کشورها، بحران جهانی و سیاست­های پولی و مالی انبساطی منجر به افزایش سریع استقراض‌های خارجی شده است. در مطالعه حاضر، تأثیر بدهی خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی سال­های 2013- 1980 با استفاده از رویکرد هم­انباشتگی مبتنی بر مدل خود توضیح با وقفه­های گسترده (ARDL to cointegration)، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این راستا، توجه ویژه­ای به نقش سیاست کلان اقتصادی در استفاده از منابع خارجی شده است؛ همچنین، اجزای بدهی خارجی با توجه به میزان بدهی خارجی چندجانبه مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. نتایج به­دست آمده نشانگر، تأثیر منفی بدهی خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران می­باشد؛ ولی می­توان با استفاده از سیاست­های مناسب اقتصادی این اثر منفی را کاهش داد و یا حتی معکوس کرد. یافته­های دیگر تحقیق حاکی از آن است که، استفاده بیشتر از بدهی­های خارجی دوجانبه اثری منفی بر رشد اقتصادی خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

External debt and economic growth nexus in Iran: Role of macroeconomic polices

نویسندگان [English]

  • Firouz Fallahi 1
  • Hossein Asgharpour 1
  • Kasra Ahmadian Behrouz 2
1 Associate Professor
چکیده [English]

Foreign or external debt is a tool that governments can use to encourage the investments and economic growth through the development of infrastructures. It plays an important role especially in the developing countries, as most of these countries suffer from the investment shortages and also budget deficits. In addition, in these countries, the savings and export revenues are not enough to finance new investments and import expenditures of the country. In recent years, borrowing has become an important economic problem not only for the developing countries but also for the developed countries as well. In many countries, global crisis and expansionary public policies have caused a rapid increase in the external borrowing.
It is widely known that the wise use of the external debts is necessary to enjoy the benefits of these debts. Otherwise, it will increase the burden on the country in the future and will harm the economy, when the time comes to pay the debts back. In other words, it is necessary to take into account the sustainability and also the efficient allocation of these funds. If the funds that have been raised through debt can be channeled to the investments, they will increase the growth rate of the country and also will make the country capable of paying them back in the future. Otherwise, these funds would reduce the economic growth rate, as a large portion of the government revenues will be used to pay back the debts. Several theories are introduced to link the debt to the growth. Debt overhang hypothesis is one of the theories that anticipates a negative relationship between the external debt and the economic growth. According to this hypothesis, when the external debt increases in a country, investors anticipate that the government will raise the tax rates in the future to gather enough funds to pay the debts back. Therefore, they will invest less, which will reduce the growth rate.
Liquidity constraint hypothesis is another theory that predicts a negative link between the debt and growth. According to this hypothesis, the country will need a large amount of credits in the future to pay the debts back and this will reduce the growth. The accumulation of debt is the third theory that states a negative effect of debt on growth. Based on this theory the government's investment on new technologies, human capital, and financial system will decrease over time. At the same time, a higher debt will increase the uncertainty in the economy which will raise the interest rate and will result in a lower investment.
Considering all these issues, this paper examines the impact of external debt on the economic growth in Iran over the period 1980–2013. To that end, the ARDL approach to co-integration is used. This paper differs from the other papers on this issue in two aspects. First, the effect of the external debts on the economic growth is examined taking into account the presence of different macroeconomic policies. Second, the external debt is divided into bilateral and multilateral debts and their effect on the growth is examined separately.
The impact of external debt on growth is analyzed allowing external debt to interact with the macroeconomic policy index. In addition, the ratio of the external debt to the GDP, the ratio of debt service to the export, and the ratio of multilateral external debt to total external debt also included in the model to examine their effect on the economic growth in Iran.
The results show that external debt has a negative impact on growth, but this adverse effect can be reduced or even reversed in the presence of sound macroeconomic policy. Moreover, the bilateral component of the total external debt is the part that retards the economic growth.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic growth
  • External debt
  • Macroeconomic policy
  • Bilateral and Multilateral external debt
  • ARDL approach

طهرانچیان، امیر منصور (1376). تأثیر بدهی خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای در حال توسعه (با تأکید بر ایران)، پایان­نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه مازندران، ساری.

مولایی، محمد و گلخندان، ابوالقاسم (1392). «اثرات بلندمدت و کوتاه­مدت کسری بودجه بر رشد اقتصادی ایران (با در نظر گرفتن متغیر بدهی خارجی)»، فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی، جلد 2، شماره 5، 115-95.

Agénor, P. and Montiel, P. J. (2010). Development Macroeconomics, 3rd edition. Princeton University Press.

Alam, M. I. and Quazi, R. M. (2003). “Determinant of capital flight: An econometric case study of Bangladesh”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol.17, 85-103.

Bannerjee, A.; Dolado, J. J.; Galbraith, J. W. and Hendry, D. F. (1993). Cointegration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data, Oxford University Press.

Barro Robert, J. (1996). Determinants of economic growth: a cross-country empirical study, NBER Working paper, No. 5698.

Boopen, S.; Kesseven, P. and Ramesh, D. (2007). “External debt and economic growth: A vector error correction approach”, International Journal of Business Research, 211-233.

Burnside, C. and Dollar, D. (1997). Aid, policies, and growth, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 569252.

Burnside, C. and Dollar, D. (2000). “Aid, policies, and growth”, American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 4, 847-868.

Burnside, C. and Dollar, D. (2004). Aid, policies, and growth: revisiting the evidence, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 3251.

Cholifihani, M. (2008). “A co-integration analysis of public debt service and GDP in Indonesia”, Journal of Management and Social Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 5, 68-81.

Cohen, D. (1993). “Low investment and large LDC debt in the 1980s”, American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 3, 437-449.

Collier, P. and Gunning, J. W. (1999). “Explaining African economic performance”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, No. 1, 64-111.

Easterly, W. and Levine, R. (1997). “Africa's growth tragedy: Policies and ethnic divisions”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 112, No. 4, 1203-1250.

Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). “Fiscal policy and economic growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, No. 3, 417-458.

Easterly, W. (2002); “How did heavily indebted poor countries become heavily indebted? Reviewing two decades of debt relief”, World Development Journal, Vol. 30, No. 10, 1677-1696.

Fischer, S. (1993); “The role of macroeconomic factors in growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, No. 3, 485-512.

Fosu, A. K. (1999); “The external debt burden and economic growth in the 1980s: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 20, No. 2, 307-318.

Froot, K. A. (1989); “Buybacks, exit bonds, and the optimality of debt and liquidity relief”, International Economic Review, Vol. 30, No. 1, 49-70.

Fry, M. J. (1989). “Foreign debt instability: An analysis of national saving and domestic investment response to foreign debt accumulation in 28 developing countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 8, No. 3, 315-344.

Gallup, J. L.; Radelet, S. and Warner, A. (1998). Economic growth and the income of the poor, Discussion paper, No. 36, Harvard Institute for International Development.

Hameed, A.; Ashraf, H. and Chaudhary, M. (2008). “External debt and its impact on economic and business growth in Pakistan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 20, 132-140.

Hansen, H. and Heady, D. (2010). “The short run macroeconomic impact of foreign aid to small states: an agnostic time series analysis”, Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 46, No. 5, 877-896.

Hofman, B. and Reisen, H. (1991). “Some evidence on debt-related determinants of investment and consumption in heavily indebted countries”, Review of World Economics, Vol. 127, No. 2, 281-299.

IMF (1989). “Debt Relief and Adjustment Incentives”, Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, By Corden, W.H., Vol. 35, No. 4, 628-643.

IMF (2005); Debt overhang or debt irrelevance? Revisiting the debt growth link, By Cordella, T.; Ricci, Luca A. & Ruiz-Arranz, M., Working paper, No. 05/223, International Monetary Fund.

IMF (2006); Public debt and productivity: The difficult quest for growth in Jamaica, By Blavy, Rodolphe, Working paper, No. 06/235, International Monetary Fund.

Iqbal, Z. and Zahid, G. M. (1998); “Macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 37, No. 2, 125-148.

Ishfaq, M. and Ahmad, E. (2005); “Aid effectiveness: the case of Pakistan”, Economic and Business Review, Vol. 17, No. 2, 40-55.

Jayaraman, T. K. and Lau, E. (2009); “Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 31, No. 2, 272-288.

Krugman, P. (1988); “Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang”. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 29, No. 3, 253-268.

Lund University (2005); Debt and economic growth in developing and industrial countries, By Schclarek, Alfredo, Department of Economics in its series working papers, Sweden, No. 34.

Narayan, P. K. and Narayan, S. (2005); “Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework”, Economic Modelling Journal, Vol. 22, 423-438.

Pesaran, M. H.; Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001); “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 16, No. 3, 289-326.

Puente-Ajovín, M. and Sanso-Navarro, M. (2015); “Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries”, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol 35, 66-77.

Ramzan, M. and Eatzaz, A. (2014); “External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic policies”, Economic Modelling, Vol.30, No. 38, 204-210.

Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2010). “Growth in a time of debt”, American Economic Review, Vol. 100, No. 2, 573-578.

Sachs, J. D. (2002). “Resolving the debt crisis of low-income countries”. The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 33, No. 1, 257-286.

Tiruneh, W. M. (2004). External imbalances as an explanation for growth rate differences across time and space: An econometric exploration, Ludwig-Maximilians -Universität München.

Università Politecnica delle Marche (2005). The debt-growth nexus: a dynamic panel data estimation, By Presbitero, Andrea, Department of Economics, Working Paper, No. 243.

World Bank (1990). Adjustment, investment and the real exchange rate, By Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime, Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. 473, Washington DC.