Historically, nations confronting significant uncertainties and high-risk environments have consistently faced profound socio-economic challenges. Geopolitical risk, encompassing the dangers and instabilities arising from political, economic, and security interactions among states and international actors, critically influences a nation's business climate, investment security, market stability, and international relations. A high level of this risk directly undermines foundational societal pillars, including food security. Concurrently, the pursuit of eradicating hunger, improving nutrition, and ensuring food provision stands as a primary governmental objective worldwide. Elevated geopolitical risk inherently threatens these goals, fostering population-level food insecurity.



Economic sanctions, as instruments of international political, financial, and economic pressure, exacerbate this dynamic by inducing economic disruption and constraining access to essential goods, including food. Within this framework, Iran presents a pertinent case study due to its prolonged exposure to both high geopolitical tensions and sustained economic sanctions.



This study empirically investigates the impact of geopolitical risk and economic sanctions on Iran's food security from 1989 to 2022. Employing the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) methodology, the research addresses the central question: How and to what extent do these factors influence food security in Iran? The findings robustly demonstrate that both variables exert significant negative pressures. Specifically, a one-unit increase in geopolitical risk reduces food security by 0.90 units, while a similar increase in economic sanctions decreases it by 0.80 units.



Conversely, domestic factors such as human capital development and industrialization exhibit a positive and statistically significant effect, enhancing food security. However, other economic and demographic variables, namely trade openness, population growth rate, and urbanization, are found to have negative and significant impacts, further complicating the food security landscape. The study concludes that external pressures from geopolitical risk and sanctions are substantial detractors from food security in Iran, though internal developmental policies can provide countervailing positive influences.