نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسنده English
This paper documents nominal price adjustment and daily return variability in the Tehran Stock Exchange around the equity-market suspension from 28 February to 18 May 2026 and reopening on 19 May. It uses a TGJU broad-market proxy and the TSETMC equal-weight index, with 68 valid post-reopening observations. The analysis combines a reproducible suspension audit, historical reference windows, dependence-preserving resampling, pre-event forecast validation, interrupted time-series regressions and volatility-normalization sensitivity tests. The twenty-session cumulative nominal returns are 37.33% and 41.90%, respectively. Both exceed simple forecast benchmarks, but historical tail probabilities lose significance after adjustment across outcomes and horizons, and resampling conclusions depend on block length. Equal-weight absolute-return variability rises more relative to its own baseline; the broad-market conclusion changes when centered standard deviation replaces absolute returns. Normalization estimates of five and twenty-seven sessions arise only under a permissive retrospective rule. Under a rolling-distribution threshold with five consecutive compliant observations, the broad-market confirmation occurs at session 32 and the equal-weight series does not confirm within 68 sessions. A restricted forecasting exercise selects models using pre-event validation and finds no uniform post-event superiority. These findings describe adjustment under a combined geopolitical shock, closure and controlled reopening. They do not identify the causal effect of suspension or establish real recovery, informational efficiency or liquidity resilience.
کلیدواژهها English