نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
This study identifies monetary and fiscal policy regimes in Iran, and the resulting policy mix, over 1975–2024, the longest period with jointly available data. Monetary policy is a base-money growth rule responding to the inflation gap; fiscal policy is an operating budget balance rule responding to lagged government debt to the central bank, controlling for oil revenue, the output gap and COVID-19. Each rule is a Markov-switching regression with switching intercept, policy coefficient and error variance, estimated by penalized maximum likelihood to exclude degenerate regimes. The number of regimes is selected by sequential parametric-bootstrap likelihood-ratio tests, and time-varying transition probabilities driven by sanctions, war, oil shocks, exchange-rate depreciation and financial repression are tested against constant ones. The data select two monetary and three fiscal regimes. Monetary policy is passive throughout: base-money growth either ignores inflation (coefficient −0.09, in oil-boom years) or accommodates it (0.64). Fiscal policy cycles from a strongly passive regime (debt coefficient 0.11) to a weakly passive regime (0.04) and then an active regime in which deficits widen as debt rises (−0.03). The policy mix is therefore indeterminate in 35 of 50 years and fiscally dominant in 15 (1975–1977, 1986–1988, 2015–2023), when inflation averaged 28.6 percent versus 19.3 percent under indeterminacy; monetary dominance never occurs. Sanctions, war, oil shocks and exchange-rate depreciation do not affect transition probabilities. The active fiscal regime coincides with deep financial repression, but the real deposit rate’s effect on transitions is insignificant under a parametric bootstrap (p = 0.15). The passive monetary stance and active fiscal regime are robust across 21 alternative specifications, and the regime-switching rules forecast 2019–2024 as accurately as linear rules. Price stability requires an enforceable fiscal rule, removal of financial repression and a monetary instrument that can lean against inflation.
کلیدواژهها English