Presenting Sign-Restriction In Vector Autoregressive Method For Examining The Impact of Unconventional Economic Policies On Increasing Production and international trade

خادم نعمت اللهی, محبوبه; اشرف گنجویی, رضا; محمدی, تیمور

doi:10.22084/aes.2025.31284.3809

Presenting Sign-Restriction In Vector Autoregressive Method For Examining The Impact of Unconventional Economic Policies On Increasing Production and international trade

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

محبوبه خادم نعمت اللهی ¹

رضا اشرف گنجویی ²

تیمور محمدی ³

¹ دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

² Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. (Email: reza_ash@eco.usb.ac.ir).

³ دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران

10.22084/aes.2025.31284.3809

چکیده

Unconventional monetary policy refers to a set of economic tools applied by central banks to stimulate the economy when conventional monetary policies are no longer effective. In this study, a new method is presented using a vector autoregressive model with a Sign-Restriction to assess the effects of unconventional monetary policy shocks. For this purpose, the impact of variables including real interest rate, inflation, and GDP, real exchange rate as well as quantitative easing is estimated for the period 1961-2021 in the case of positive and negative restrictions on these variables. The results show that when a negative restriction is imposed on the interest rate, production increases and unconventional monetary policy shocks are identified and estimated. Unconventional monetary policy can stabilize financial markets, reduce uncertainty, and provide more support to the public with low-interest loans to support low-cost production in the economy.

• SIR-VAR model reveals the effect of implementing unconventional monetary policies to reduce the effects of economic crises or deep recessions.

• SIR-VAR model allows economic planners to assess the situation of exiting stagflation with unconventional monetary policies leading to increased surplus production and more international trade in goods.

• SIR-VAR model determines the competitiveness of domestic and foreign goods and services through analyzing the effects of unconventional monetary policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها

SIR-VAR model

Unconventional monetary policy

production

موضوعات