In recent decades, Iran's industry has faced an unstable and highly uncertain trajectory under the influence of structural, institutional, and environmental factors. Dependence on energy based sectors, policy instability, weak institutional coordination, technological constraints, and the pressure of international sanctions have made this sector vulnerable and its future outlook ambiguous. Under such conditions, scenario planning is an effective tool for identifying possible pathways, analyzing driving forces and uncertainties, and providing a framework for strategic decision making. The aim of this study is to develop consistent scenarios for the future of Iran's industry by combining qualitative data with the fuzzy Delphi method. To this end, semi structured interviews were conducted with 18 industrial experts, and the data were examined through coding and analysis of relationships among codes. Key factors were then prioritized in terms of importance and influence through two rounds of fuzzy Delphi. The results indicate that four factors – institutional capacity, the intensity or relaxation of international restrictions, the path of technological transformation, and the stability of macroeconomic policies – play the most significant role in shaping the future of Iran's industry. Moreover, the ‘implementation gap’ was identified as a fundamental uncertainty that can determine the realization or failure of the scenarios. Based on the combination of driving forces and uncertainties, four scenarios – ‘technological leap’, ‘institutional reconfiguration’, ‘conservative development’, and ‘industrial collapse’ – were developed. The two main uncertainties determining these scenarios are: (i) stability/instability of the international environment and the macro-economy, and (ii) the degree of adoption of new technologies. The tangible results of this study for policymakers include the prioritization of drivers such as ‘industrial growth and development’ and ‘economic international stability’, as well as providing a framework for designing flexible and resilient industrial policies in the face of institutional, technological, and environmental uncertainties.