نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز
2 بخش اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
One of the most important concerns for policymakers globally in the housing sector is the emergence of price fluctuations, meaning times when housing prices are turbulent and unstable. The housing market involves two types of demand: consumptive and speculative. Speculators can both contribute to a boom in the housing market through increased transactions and, by stimulating inflationary expectations, cause increased price volatility in the market. The objective of the present study is to simulate housing price volatility and examine the impact of speculation on this volatility in the city of Shiraz. For this purpose, an agent-based model was used, considering four active agents in the housing market: sellers, buyers (sellers and buyers are present in the market with two motives: personal use and speculation), developers, and real estate agencies. Concurrent with the input of data up to the beginning of the Iranian year 1401 (2022), and by considering different percentages of speculative buyers out of the total buyers—from 100% (all buyers entering the housing market are speculators) to 0% (complete exit of speculators from the housing market)—the simulated model of the Shiraz housing market was run. This allowed for the examination of the impact of different levels of speculation on housing price volatility over an eight-year forecast period until the year 1409 (2030). The results of the study indicate that as the number of speculators decreases, housing price volatility reduces. However, the greatest reduction in price volatility occurs when speculators constitute 60% of the total buyers, meaning that housing price volatility by the year 1409 (2030) has decreased by approximately 25%.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)