نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دکتری رشته اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران.
2 استاد تمام گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران
3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه باهنر کرمان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction
Iran, being a dry and semi-arid region, faces significant water management challenges, particularly affecting agriculture, industry, and mining sectors. Over 90% of the country's water resources are consumed by agriculture, while industries and mining sectors face water shortages due to the poor location of industries in water-scarce areas like Kerman and Yazd. The water transfer project from the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea is vital to alleviate these challenges, yet it faces financial constraints due to high desalination and transfer costs, compounded by energy price fluctuations. Subsidies on water and energy significantly impact the economics of such projects and the public budget. This study investigates the effects of energy and water subsidy reforms in the water transfer project, assessing the potential economic benefits and costs in the long term, with a focus on boosting exports and industrial value.
Materials and Methods
A dynamic systems approach is employed to simulate the effects of water and energy subsidy reforms on exports and added value in Iran’s economic sectors until 2046. The model uses time-series data from 2005 to 2024, simulating long-term outcomes through Vensim software. The model integrates five core sectors: population, water transfer, environment, economy, and finance. It includes causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams to depict relationships and feedback loops. The model's structure was validated with historical data and confirmed for consistency, ensuring reliable results for policy analysis.
Discussion
The study's dynamic model, validated through sensitivity, data, and behavioral tests, is capable of simulating the behavior of the real-world system and provides valuable insights into long-term policy impacts. The water transfer projects, being highly energy-dependent, affect the cost of water, which in turn influences the economic sectors' exports and added value. The model explores three scenarios—50% and 100% increases in water prices, and the removal of electricity subsidies—both with and without considering environmental impacts. The results indicate that higher energy prices might boost exports in the agricultural and mining sectors, but this could come at the cost of domestic value-added in these sectors. Additionally, accounting for environmental impacts reveals that energy policies should be considered seriously in long-term decision-making to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability.
The study also aligns with national policy documents, such as the 2046 Vision Document and the 6th and 7th development plans, which outline goals for managing water and energy resources. These strategic documents are crucial for informing the reform of water and energy subsidies and help ensure that the outcomes of this research align with Iran’s broader economic and environmental goals.
Conclusion
The research emphasizes the significant role of water and energy price reforms in influencing the economic landscape of Iran, particularly in sectors reliant on water and energy. By simulating different policy scenarios, the study highlights the complex interactions between economic growth, resource management, and environmental sustainability. The results suggest that reforms can enhance exports in certain sectors, especially agriculture and mining, but only if accompanied by careful environmental management. Without this balance, the water transfer project could undermine both economic and environmental sustainability, threatening long-term growth and stability. This dynamic systems approach provides policymakers with insights to make informed decisions that support both economic development and environmental sustainability.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
)