مالی سازی و رفاه در ایران: پارادوکس کیفیت نهادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی (ره)، بروجرد، ایران (نویسندۀ مسئول).

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی (ره)، بروجرد، ایران.

10.22084/aes.2025.31450.3820

چکیده

درک تأثیر مالی‌سازی بر اقتصاد برای سیاست‌گذارانی که به‌دنبال طراحی راهبردهایی برای ارتقای رفاه اجتماعی هستند، از اهمیت حیاتی برخوردار است. این پژوهش به بررسی اثر مالی‌سازی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران طی دورۀ 1402-1369ه‍.ش. می‌پردازد و با به‌کارگیری رهیافت رگرسیون آستانه‌ای، پویایی‌های غیرخطی را مدنظر قرار می‌دهد. نتایج، یک سطح آستانه‌ای برای کیفیت نهادی در حد ۵۷% نشان می‌دهد. در هر دو رژیم کیفیت نهادی پایین و بالا، مالی‌سازی تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد؛ با این‌حال، زمانی‌که کیفیت نهادی از این آستانه فراتر رود، اثر نامطلوب مالی‌سازی به‌طور محسوسی تشدید می‌شود. این یافته‌ها نقش متناقض‌ کیفیت نهادی را برجسته می‌سازد و نشان می‌دهد که مالی‌سازی بیشتر به‌طور پیوسته رفاه در ایران را تضعیف می‌کند و نهادهای قوی‌تر، به‌جای کاهش، بر اثرات منفی آن می‌افزایند. به این معنا که در کیفیت نهادی بالاتر، ابزارهای مالی پیشرفته و بازار سرمایه توسعه می‌یابد؛ اما این دسترسی معمولاً نامتقارن است؛ از این‌رو، اقشار ثروتمند و شرکت‌های بزرگ بیشترین بهره را می‌برند، درحالی‌که خانوارهای کم‌درآمد سهم اندکی دارند و حتی ممکن است از افزایش هزینۀ مسکن، تورم دارایی، یا بدهی مصرفی آسیب ببینند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Financialization and Welfare in Iran: The Institutional Quality Paradox

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Maaboudi 1
  • Ramin Khochiany 2
  • Younes Nademi 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran (Corresponding Author).
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Understanding the impact of financialization on the economy is crucial for policymakers seeking to design strategies that enhance social welfare. This study examines the effect of financialization on economic welfare in Iran from 1990 to 2023, employing a threshold regression approach to account for nonlinear dynamics. The results reveal a threshold level of institutional quality at 57%. Across both, i.e., low and high institutional quality regimes, financialization exerts a negative and significant influence on economic welfare. However, once institutional quality surpasses the threshold, the adverse impact of financialization intensifies markedly. Findings highlight the paradoxical role of institutional quality, showing that greater financialization consistently undermines welfare in Iran, with stronger institutions amplifying rather than mitigating its negative effects. It means that in environments with higher institutional quality, advanced financial instruments and capital markets develop; however, access to financial development is usually asymmetrical. Consequently, wealthy individuals and large corporations benefit the most, while low-income households receive minimal benefits and may even suffer from asset inflation or consumer debt. Thus, strong institutions do not necessarily prioritize public welfare. Policymakers may regulate to develop financial markets in a way that prioritizes the financial sector’s profitability over social interests. This mechanism can lead to financial sector growth occurring faster than the real economy’s capacity, ultimately undermining welfare.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financialization
  • Economic Welfare
  • Institutional Quality
  • Threshold Regression
  • Approach
  • Iran

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فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 14، شماره 55
شماره انگلیسی
آبان 1404
صفحه 43-65

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