نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی
2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
3 کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Abstract
The relationship between connectivity and price spillovers in the housing sector is a complex, multidimensional issue that has long attracted attention from researchers and experts in economics and urban planning. This relationship is shaped by economic, social, and political factors and serves as a critical indicator for assessing financial markets and the housing sector. This study employs a connectedness approach within the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework, utilizing three network-based indicators—Total Connectedness Index (TCI), Net Total Directional Connectedness (NTDC), and Pairwise Connectedness Index (PCI)—to dynamically analyze the transmission mechanisms of housing price shocks across Iran’s provinces from September 2011 to August 2024. The results reveal a persistent core-periphery structure in Iran’s housing market, with provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, and Alborz consistently acting as net transmitters of price shocks, while provinces like Zahedan, Ilam, Bojnourd, and Zanjan remain chronic net receivers. The TCI analysis indicates heightened structural co-movements among regional housing markets during the 2018–2020 economic turmoil, followed by increased market segmentation and regional independence as volatility declined. Furthermore, the PCI results demonstrate that under unstable macroeconomic conditions, bilateral relationships between provinces weaken significantly, leading to a highly polarized and unidirectional price transmission network. These findings highlight the need for spatially and network-informed housing market policies. Uniform, one-size-fits-all policies that disregard regional transmission dynamics are likely to exacerbate regional inequality and systemic instability. The formulation of spatially-oriented policymaking based on the Territorial Competitiveness Index (TCI) and National Territorial Development Capacity (NTDC) instead of uniform policies, the establishment of a national real-time housing pricing system, the reform of provincial housing budgeting systems, the focus of volatility control policies on transmission provinces, the creation of formal financial intermediary institutions in recipient provinces, the enhancement of spatial planning in housing policy, and the management of migrant capital flows from central to peripheral regions are among the recommendations of the present study.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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