ارزیابی سناریوهای فرمول رسمی قیمت نفت ایران در بازار مدیترانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت انرژی، دانشکدۀ تهران، دانشگاه صنعت نفت، تهران، ایران.

10.22084/aes.2025.30324.3749

چکیده

 هدف این پژوهش بررسی فرمول رسمی قیمت نفت خام ایران در بازار مدیترانه است. در این پژوهش دو رویکرد کارشناسی قیمت‌گذاری اول فرمول مذکور تابع قیمت نفت برنت در بازار آیس، دوم تابع شاخص بازار مدیترانه مورد ارزیابی قرار می‌گیرد؛ بدین‌منظور با استفاده ‌از داده‌های ماهانۀ طی سال‌های 2007 تا 2022م. با روش گارچ چندمتغیره، معناداری متغیرهای یادشده و برخی از متغیرهای مالی نظیر نرخ بهره و شاخص داوجونز برروی فرمول رسمی قیمت مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد شاخص بازار مدیترانه اثر معناداری بر فرمول رسمی قیمت نفت ایران نداشته، اما نفت برنت در بازار آیس اثر معنادار قابل‌توجهی بر آن داشته است؛ هم‌چنین تأثیرگذاری متغیرهای نرخ بهره و شاخص داوجونز در دو سناریو، اثرات معناداری بر فرمول قیمت نفت ایران دارند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of The Scenarios of the Iranian Oil Official Price Formula in the Mediterranean Market

نویسنده [English]

  • Seyyed Abdollah Razavi
Associate Professor, Energy Economics and Management Department, Faculty of Tehran, Petroleum University of Technology (PUT), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Changes in the oil price formula are of great importance in economic literature for oil producers such as Iran, given their dependence on oil revenue and its large share in their budget. On the other hand, the official oil price formula is a key factor in marketing and determining market share, and national oil companies constantly adjust this system according to changes in market conditions and competitors. The main issue is that in recent years, pricing experts have disagreed on the official oil price formula, so that the first group considers the aforementioned formula to be a function of the Brent crude oil price in the ICE market, but the second group considers the aforementioned formula to be mainly a function of the Mediterranean market index (the difference between Ural crude oil and Brent). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the official Iranian crude oil price formula in the Mediterranean market. In this study, two expert pricing approaches are evaluated: the first is the Brent oil price function in the ICE market, and the second is the Mediterranean market index function. For this purpose, using monthly data from 2007 to 2022, the significance of the aforementioned variables and some other variables such as interest rates and the Dow Jones index on the official price formula has been evaluated using the multivariate GARCH method. The results show that the Mediterranean market index did not have a significant effect on the official Iranian oil price formula, but Brent oil in the ICE market had a significant effect on it. Similarly, the effectiveness of the interest rate and Dow Jones index variables in the two scenarios have significant effects on the Iranian oil price formula.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mediterranean Market
  • Official Oil Price Formula
  • Iran
  • Urals
  • Brent