بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی استان‌های ایران در دوره‌های زمانی مختلف

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اداری و اقتصادی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

10.22084/aes.2024.29480.3701

چکیده

گستردگی آثار و پیامدهای تغییرات آب و هوا بر ابعاد مختلف زندگی بشر امروزی، این پدیده را از یک مسأله محیط‌­زیستی فراتر برده و جنبه­‌های اقتصادی آن را با توجه به اثرات آن بر توسعۀ اقتصادی، فقر، نابرابری و رفاه برجسته کرده است. تحلیل اقتصادی تغییرات آب و هوا به‌ویژه در دوره­‌های زمانی مختلف به برآوردهایی در سطوح ملی و محلی نیاز دارد. نظر به انجام برخی مطالعات محدود و عمدتاً بخشی در زمینۀ تأثیر اقتصادی تغییر شرایط آب و هوایی در ایران، در این پژوهش با بهره‌­برداری از داده‌­های تولید اقتصادی و محاسبۀ جدید از متغیرهای آب و هوا برای استان‌­های کشور بین سال‌­های 1379 تا 1399، این امکان فراهم شده است که تأثیر تغییر آب و هوا در مقیاس‌­های زمانی مختلف با استفاده از رگرسیون­‌های ترکیبی (پانل) سالانه و تفاضل طولانی تخمین زده شود. نتایج نشان می­‌دهد اثر منفی تغییرات دما و بارش هم‌زمان و با تأخیر یک ساله بر تولید استان‌­های ایران وجود دارد؛ هرچند مقدار این ضرایب بسیار کم است. هم‌چنین یک اثر منفی قابل‌توجه از تغییرات باوقفۀ دما بر تولید نیز قابل مشاهده است و اثر مثبت درخصوص تغییرات باوقفۀ بارش قابل استخراج است. در رگرسیون تفاضل طولانی شواهدی مبنی‌بر تأثیرگذاری سطح دما (یا میزان بارندگی) بر تولید استان‌­ها در دوره‌­های طولانی یافت نشد؛ هرچند تغییر بارندگی، قدرت تأثیرگذاری بیشتری در دوره‌­های طولانی‌­مدت‌­تر به‌همراه دارد و برخلاف دما، تأثیرگذاری آن در دوره­‌های زمانی کوتاه‌­تر نیز رد نمی‌­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Climate Change on the Growth of the Gross Domestic Product of Iran's Provinces in Different Periods of Time

نویسندگان [English]

  • Lotfali Azari 1
  • Ali Akbar Naji Meidani 2
  • Narges Salehnia 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran (Corresponding Author)
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

The extent of the effects and consequences of climate change on various dimensions of human life today has made this phenomenon more than an environmental issue and highlighted its economic aspects with regard to its effects on economic development, poverty, inequality and prosperity. Economic analysis of climate change, especially in different time periods, requires estimates at national and local levels. In view of conducting some limited and mostly partial studies on the economic impact of changing weather conditions in Iran, in this article using the economic production data and new calculation of weather variables for the provinces of the country between 2000 to 2020, it has been possible to estimate the impact of climate change on different time scales by using annual panel model and long difference model. The results show that there is a negative effect of changes in temperature and precipitation simultaneously and with a delay of one year on the production of Iranian provinces, although the value of these coefficients is very low. In addition, these changes affect short-term production and long-term growth. However, it can be claimed that there is no long-term effect between precipitation levels and changes in production, unlike temperature levels. Also, a significant negative effect of intermittent changes in temperature on production can be seen, and a positive effect can be extracted regarding intermittent changes in precipitation. In the regression of the long difference, there was no evidence that the temperature level (or the amount of precipitation) has an effect on the production of the provinces in long periods, although the change in precipitation has a greater influence in longer periods, and unlike temperature, its effect It is not rejected in shorter periods of time either.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Economic Impacts
  • Climate Effects

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فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 13، شماره 52
اسفند 1403
صفحه 9-39

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