تحلیل اثر جهانی‌شدن بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران: با تأکید بر ابعاد و اجزای جهانی‌شدن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکدۀ علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران.

چکیده

عوامل زیادی رفاه را تحت‌تأثیر قرار می‌دهد که جهانی‌شدن ازجمله آن است. جهانی‌شدن ابعاد و لایه‌های متعددی دارد که از میان آن‌ها، ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی دارای اهمیت ویژه‌ای است. در این پژوهش از شاخص جهانی‌شدن KOF استفاده شده است که از سه بُعد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی تشکیل می‌شود و هر کدام از ابعاد نیز دارای دو جزء عملکردی و قانونی است. در این مطالعه، نخست رفاه اقتصادی با شاخص ترکیبی رفاه محاسبه شد؛ سپس در قالب چهار الگو تأثیر هر کدام از ابعاد جهانی‌شدن و اجزاء آن‌ها بر رفاه اقتصادی ایران با رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی در بازۀ سال‌های ۱۳۹۹-۱۳۵۸ مورد بررسی و آزمون قرار گرفت. نتایج در بلندمدت حاکی از آن است هر سه بُعد جهانی‌شدن (اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی) با اثری مثبت بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است. هر دو جزء عملکردی و قانونی از جهانی‌شدن اقتصادی و سیاسی اثری مثبت بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد. اگرچه جزء قانونیِ جهانی‌شدن اجتماعی تأثیر مثبت بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد ولی جزء عملکردی آن با اثر معناداری بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه نیست. یافتۀ دیگر آن‌که، رشد اقتصادی و درآمد سرانه با اثری مثبت و تورم با اثری منفی بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Effect of Globalization on Economic Well-Being in Iran: Emphasizing the Dimensions and Components of Globalization

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahryar Zaroki 1
  • Ahmadreza Ahmadi 2
  • Mohamad Boushehri 2
  • Mastaneh Yadollahi Otaghsara 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 M.A. Student in Economics, Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 M.A. in Economic Science, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
چکیده [English]

Many variables affect well-being, one of which is globalization. Globalization has many dimensions and layers, among which economic, social and political dimensions are of special importance. In this research, KOF globalization index is used. This index consists of three economic, social and political dimensions and each dimension has two De Facto and De Jure components. In this study, economic well-being was first calculated with the composite index of well-being. Then, in the form of four model, the impact of each of the dimensions of globalization and their components on Iran’s economic well-being was investigated and tested in the period of 1979-2020 with using the ARDL model.  The long run results indicate that all three dimensions of globalization (economic, political and social) have a positive effect on economic well-being. Both De Facto and De Jure components of economic and political globalization have a positive effect on economic well-being. Although De Jure component of social globalization has a positive effect on economic well-being, but its De Facto does not have a significant effect on economic well-being. Another finding is that economic growth and real GDP per capita have a positive effect and inflation has a negative effect on economic well-being.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Well-Being
  • Globalization
  • Dimensions and Components
  • Iran
  • - بهکیش، محمدمهدی، (1380). اقتصاد ایران در بستر جهانی شدن­. نشر نی.

    - جعفری‌صمیمی، احمد؛ و سینا، کرم، (1384). جهانی شدن، شاخص­ها و جایگاه اقتصاد ایران. تهران: شرکت چاپ و نشر بازرگانی.

    - جعفری‌صمیمی، احمد؛ و سینا، کرم، (1388). «بررسی و ارزیابی جایگاه ایران در جهانی‌شدن و ارائه یک الگوی مدیریتی مناسب». مجلۀ پژوهش­های مدیریت، 80: 59-41.  https://journals.srbiau.ac.ir/article_6628.html

    - جعفری‌صمیمی، احمد؛ و بحرینی، نصرت، (۱۳۹۳). «بررسی رابطه جهانی‌شدن اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی: مطالعه موردی کشورهای منتخب منطقه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا». فصلنامۀ علمی و پژوهشی راهبرد اقتصادی، ۴(۱۳): ۱۱۰-۷۷. https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103285.html

    - صابونچی، محمدحسین؛ و رشیدزاده، علی، (۱۳۹۳). «اثر جهانی‌شدن و سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی بر روی توزیع درآمد در ایران». مجلۀ اقتصادی (دوماهنامه بررسی مسائل و سیاست‌های اقتصادی)، ۱۴ (۱ و ۲): ۱۱۷-۱۳۴. https://ejip.ir/article-1-660-fa.html

    - طیب‌نیا، علی؛ و زندیه، رضوان، (1388). «اثرات فرآیند جهانی‌شدن بر تورم در ایران». پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، 13(38): 53-96.  https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3515.html

     

    • Almas, H. & Sangchoon, L. E. E., (2010). “The relationship between globalization, economic growth and income inequality”.Journal of Globalization Studies1(2): 87-117. https://www.sociostudies.org/journal/articles/140648/
    • Antras, P.; Gortari, A. & Itskhoki, O., (2016). “Globalization, inequality and welfare”.NBER Working Paper, No. 22676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.07.009
    • Armanmehr, M. & Farahmandmanesh, A., (2018). “Investigating the effect of inflation on income inequality of urban households in Iran using the Atkinson approach”.Journal of Economics and Regional Development25(16): 127-152. doi: 10.22067/erd.v25i15.62836
    • Baidoo, S. T.; Sakyi, D.; Ayesu, E. K.; Asante, G. N. & Dramani, J. B., (2023). “Estimating the effect of economic globalization on welfare in Africa”.SN Business & Economics3(9): 168. http://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-023-00543-z
    • Bakhtiari, S. Ranjbar, H. & Ghorbani, S., (2013). “Composite index of economic well-being and its measurement for selected developing countries”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 3(9): 58-41. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22285954.1391.3.9.3.7 (In Persian)
    • Benigno, P. & Faia, E., (2016). “Globalization, pass-through and inflation dynamics”. International Journal of Central Banking, 12(4): 263-306. http://doi.org/10.3386/w15842
    • Berger,, (2000). “Globalization and politics”. Annual Review of the Political Science, 3: 43-62. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.3.1.43
    • Brady,; Beckfield, J. & Seeleib-Kaiser, M., (2005). “Economic globalization and the welfare state in affluent democracies”. American Sociological Review, 70: .921-948. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4145400
    • Burgoon,, (2001). “Globalization and welfare compensation: Disentangling the ties that bind”. International Organization, 55: 509-551. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3078656
    • Dadgar, Y. & Naji Maidani, A. A., (2004). “The effects of globalization of trade on Iran’s economic growth”.The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies0(5): 33-64. https://economic.mofidu.ac.ir/article_47905.html?lang=en
    • Dreher, A., (2006). “Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization”.Applied economics38(10): 1091-1110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
    • Dumitrescu, E.-I. & Hurlin, C., (2012). “Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels”. Economic Modelling, 29: 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
    • Feghe Majidi, A. & Ali Moradi Afshar, P., (2012). “The study of the relationship between globalization and economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa”. Political & Economic Ettelaat, 290: 92-101. https://doi.org/10.32598/JMSP.7.1.30
    • Fischer, S. & Modigliani, F., (1978). “Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation”.Review of World Economics114(4): 810-833. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40438708
    • Frankel, J. A., (2003). The Environment and Globalization. Working Paper 10090: 1–39. http://www.nber.org/papers/w10090.pdf
    • Garret, Mitchell, D., (2001). “Globalization, government spending and taxation in the OECD”. Europen Journal of Political Research, 39: 145-177. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.00573
    • Genschel,, (2004). “Globalizationan and the welfare state: A retrospective”. Journal of European Public Policy, 11: 613-636. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350176042000248052
    • Giddens, A., (1990). the consequences of modernity, Cambridge, Polity Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23004200
    • Gills, D. S., (2002). “Economic globalization and women in Asia: Challenges and responses”. In43rd Annual ISA Convention New Orleans, LA (pp. 24-27). https://doi.org/10.1177/000271620258100110
    • Gurgul, H. & Lach, Ł., (2014). “Globalization and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE”.Economic Modelling36: 99-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.022
    • Hamidi, H. & Sarfarazi, M., (2010). “Globalization and human resources management”.Strategic Studies of Public Policy1(1): 1-48. https://sspp.iranjournals.ir/article_626.html?lang=en. (In Persian)
    • Hicks,, (1999). “Social Democracy and Welfare Capitalism”. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctv75d1k5
    • Hosseinbor, N. Musavi, S. N. & Amini Far, A., (2023). “Investigating energy consumption and inflation shocks on the welfare index in OPEC member countries”.Political Sociology of Iran5(11): 4800-4824. doi: 10.30510/psi.2022.360012.3914
    • Jafari Samimi, A.; Zaroki, S. & Sadati Amiri, S. R., (2019). “Economic welfare analysis with an emphasis on aspects of globalization”.Economic Modelling12(44): 1-23. https://sanad.iau.ir/en/Article/995383?FullText=FullText. (In Persian)
    • Kilic, C., (2015). “Effects of globalization on economic growth: Panel data analysis for developing countries”.Petroleum-Gas University of Ploiesti Bulletin, Technical Series67(1). https://upg-bulletin-se.ro/old_site/archive/2015-1/1.Kilic.pdf
    • Kim,, (2007). “Openness, external Risk, and volatility: Implications for the compensation hypothesis”. International Organization, 61: 181-216. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818307070051
    • Kittel, B. & Winner, H., (2005). “How reliable is pooled analysis in political economy? The globalization-welfare state nexus revisited”.European Journal of Political Research, 44: 269-293. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2005.00228.x
    • Kılıcarslan, Z. & Dumrul, Y., (2018). “The Impact of globalization on economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Turkey”.International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues8(5): 115–123. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2018-05-17.html
    • Krugman, P., (2017). Crises: “The price of globalisation?” InEconomics of Globalisation (pp. 31-50). Routledge.
    • Laidler, D. E. W. & Parkin, J. M., (1977). “Inflation: A Survey”.Palgrave Macmillan Books, 169-237. https://doi.org/1007/978-1-349-01863-5_4
    • Lucas, M., (2004). “How can we make globalization work for sustainable development?”Afrique PALOP: Developpement et mondialisation seminaire-Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 1-2.
    • Majidi, A. F., (2017). “Globalization and economic growth: The case study of developing countries”.Asian Economic and Financial Review7(6): 589. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2017.76.589.599
    • Malešević Perović, L., (2008). “Subjective economic well-being in transition countries: Investigating the relative importance of macroeconomic variables”. Financial theory and practice32(4): 519-537. https://hrcak.srce.hr/file/55174
    • Meinhard, S. & Potrafke, N., (2012). “The globalization–welfare state nexus reconsidered”.Review of International Economics20(2): 271-287. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2012.01021.x
    • Mousavi, N.; Bakhshoude, M.; Mohamadi, H.; Yazdani, S. & Taheri, F., (2007). “Evaluating the effects of globalization on poverty measures”.REFAHJ6(24): 259-282. https://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-2135-en.html
    • Mussurov, A.; Sholk, D. & Arabsheibani, G. R., (2019). “Informal employment in Kazakhstan: A blessing in disguise?”Eurasian Economic Review9: 267-284. https://doi.org/1007/s40822-018-0117-1
    • Nahavandian, M. & Ghanbari, M. F. A., (2004). “We and globalization.Tehran: Institute for Humanities and Cultural Studies. (In Persian)
    • Olimpia, N. & Stela, D., (2017). “Impact of globalisation on economic growth in Romania: An empirical analysis of its economic, social and political dimensions”.Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad–Economics Series27(1): 29-40. https://doi.org/1515/sues-2017-0003
    • Oner, C., (2010). “What is inflation?” Finance & Development,47(1): 44. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2010/03/basics.htm
    • Osberg, L. & Sharpe, A., (2009). “Measuring economic security in insecure times: New perspectives, new events and the index of economic well-being”. Presented at Canadian Economics Association Annual Conference. http://www.csls.ca/reports/csls2009-12.pdf
    • Pearce, J. A.; Robinson, R. B. & Subramanian, R., (2000).“Strategic management: Formulation, implementation, and control”. Columbus, OH: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
    • Pierson, P., (1996). “The new politics of the welfare state”.World politics48(2): 143-179. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198297564.001.0001
    • Ranjan,, (2014). “Globalisation, Jobs, and Welfare: The roles of social protection and redistribution”. CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 5191. https://www.economics.uci.edu/research/wp/globalization_welfare_ranjan.pdf
    • Razavi, A. & Salimi far, M., (2013). “The effect of economic globalization on economic growth, using vector auto regression model”.Strategic Studies of public policy4(12): 9-32.  https://sspp.iranjournals.ir/article_4073.html?lang=en .(In Persian)
    • Rodrik,, (1997). “Has Globalization Gone Too Far?” Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40721822
    • Salmanpour, A., Taghi Soltani, M., & Shafei, E., (2009). “The consequence of globalization of the economy on internal inflation in Iran”. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling, 1(7): 11-93. https://sanad.iau.ir/en/Journal/eco/Article/555660?jid=555660&lang=fa .(In Persian)
    • Sen, A., (1999). “Development as Freedom”. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
    • Shahiki Tash, M. N.; Molaee, S. & Dinarzehi, K., (2014). “Examining the relationship between economic growth and coefficient of social welfare under the Bayesian approach in Iran”.Economic Growth and Development Research4(16): 52-41. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22285954.1393.4.16.3.2. (In Persian)
    • ShahikiTash, M.; Molaei, S. & Shivaei, A., (2013). “Cardinal welfare assessment and evaluation of the effect of macro variables on welfare changes in Iran based on fuzzy regression”. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 21(65): 182-165. (In Persian)
    • Ursprung, H., (2006). “The impact of globalization on the composition of government expenditures: Evidence from panel data”. CESifo Working, Paper No.1755. DOI:1007/s11127-007-9223-4
    • Vafaei, E.; Mohammadzadeh, P.; Fallahi, F. & Asgharpour, H., (2017). “The convergence of social welfare in the Iranian provinces using spatial STAR nonlinear technique”.Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 4(2): 79-102. (In Persian)
    • Yazdani Boroujeni, F., (2005). “Globalization and inequality”. REFAHJ5(18): 201-222. URL: http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-1938-fa.html .(In Persian)
    • Ying, Y. H. Chang, K. & Lee, C. H., (2014). “The impact of globalization on economic growth”.Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting17(2): 25-34. https://ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_14/rjef2_2014p25-34.pdf
    • Zaroki, S.; Yousefi Barfurushi, A.; Yousefzadeh Roshan, Z. & Ahmadi, A., (2023). “Analysis of the effect of oil rent on economic well-being in Iran with an emphasis on the underground economy”.Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)58(3): 395-431. doi: 10.22059/jte.2023.356519.1008801. (In Persian)