ارائه چارچوبی برای تخصیص بودجۀ عمومی تحقیق‏‌وتوسعه به دانشگاه‌‏ها با استفاده از بهینه‏‌سازی استوار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

2 پژوهشگر، مرکز تحقیقات سیاست علمی کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

دانشگا­ه­‌هایی که توسط دولت تأمین مالی می­‌شوند نقشی محوری در تحقیق‌‏وتوسعۀ ملّی دارند. با توجه به محدودیت‌‏های بودجه‌‏ای دولت، تخصیص بهینۀ منابع عمومی اهمیت زیادی یافته است. در این مطالعه، یک چارچوب پشتیبان تصمیم‌­گیری برای تخصیص بهینه و استوار بودجۀ فعالیت‌‏های تحقیق‌‏وتوسعه به‌منظور حداکثرسازی برون‌دادهای مستقیم و غیرقطعی این فعالیت‌‏ها در دانشگاه‌‏ها توسعه یافته است. طراحی آزمایش‌­ها در دو فاز انجام شد. در فاز اول، بدون در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت برون‌دادهای تحقیق‌‏وتوسعه دانشگاه‌­ها، تخصیص بهینۀ بودجه با توجه به سه آلترناتیو برای هر دانشگاه تعیین گردید. در فاز دوم، با تغییر پارامترهای مدل (پارامتر کنترل هزینۀ استواری و پارامتر کنترل عدم قطعیت در برون‌دادها)، طرح بهینۀ تخصیص بودجه در حالت غیراستوار و استوار محاسبه شد. نتایج تحلیل داده‌‏ها با استفاده از روش‏‌های آمار توصیفی نشان‌داد که در وضعیت فعلی، تناسب مشخصی بین برون‌دادها و بودجۀ تخصیصی به دانشگاه‌‏ها وجود نداشت و روند تخصیص بودجه، بسیار نوسانی و فاقد الگوی افزایشی مشخص بود. درحالی‌که بودجۀ محاسبه شده به روش بهینه‌‎سازی استوار، روندی منطقی و متناسب با برون‌داد دانشگاه نشان‌داد. هم‌چنین، مدل بهینۀ استوار، کل بودجه در اختیار برای دانشگاه‏‌ها را به‌نحوی توزیع کرد که درمجموع عملکرد بیشینه در سقف بودجه در اختیار حاصل شود. پیاده‏‌سازی مدل برای پنج دانشگاه در شش سال متوالی، بهبود برون‌داد از حداقل 2 تا حداکثر 6 درصد و صرفه‌‏جویی در بودجۀ تخصیص یافته از 1/0 تا 1/1% را نشان می‌‏دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Providing a Framework for Allocating Public R&D Budget to the Universities Using Robust Optimization

نویسندگان [English]

  • Parisa Alizadeh 1
  • Mojtaba Gholipour 2
1 Assistant Professor, STI financing and economics research group, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran, Iran
2 Researcher, STI financing and economics research group, National Research Institute for Science Policy, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Government-funded universities play a central role in national research and development (R&D). However, due to the government's budget constraints, the optimal allocation of public resources has become very important. In this study, a decision support framework was developed for the optimal and robust allocation of the R&D budget to maximize the direct and uncertain outputs of R&D activities in universities. The experiments were designed in two phases. In the first phase, without considering the uncertainty of R&D outputs of universities, the optimal budget allocation was determined according to three scenarios for each university. By changing the model parameters (robustness cost control parameter and output uncertainty control parameter), the optimal budget allocation plan in uncertain and robust conditions was calculated for 12 scenarios. The analysis of data using descriptive statistics methods and the comparison of results showed that in the current situation, there was no clear correlation between R&D outputs and the R&D budget allocated to the universities, and the budget allocation process was very volatile and lacked a clear increasing or decreasing pattern. While the R&D budget that was calculated in a robust optimal way showed a logical and proportional trend to the R&D activities’ output. Also, the optimal model distributed the total available budget for the universities in such a way as to achieve the maximum performance in the total budget ceiling. Implementing the model for 5 universities in 6 consecutive years improved the output from a minimum of 2 to a maximum of 6% and saved the allocated budget from 0.1 to 1.1%.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Budget allocation
  • R&D
  • Robust optimization
  • Universities
  • Iran

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