رابطۀ غیرخطی نااطمینانی شاخص قیمت موادغذایی و امنیت غذایی در خانوارهای ایرانی: شواهدی از مدل GAS

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مدرس گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی قیمت موادغذایی بر امنیت غذایی در خانوارهای ایرانی طی دورۀ 1359-1396 در چارچوب یک مدل غیرخطی است. جهت برآورد نااطمینانی از مدل امتیاز خودرگرسیونی تعمیم یافته و برای برآورد تأثیر نااطمینانی قیمت موادغذایی بر امنیت غذایی از مدل خود رگرسیونی انتقال ملایم استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که نااطمینانی قیمت مواد غذایی در رژیم اول (سطح پایین سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی) تأثیر منفی و معنادار و در رژیم دوم (سطح بالا سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی) تأثیر منفی و غیرمعنادار بر امنیت غذایی دارد. در رژیم اول که سطح سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی از حد آستانه کمتر است، با افزایش نوسانات قیمت مواد غذایی، نااطمینانی در بازار افزایش و علائم با شفافیت کمتری به تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده سیگنال می‌دهد. در این شرایط مصرف‌کنندگان با مشکل کاهش قدرت خرید مردم و نااطمینانی در دسترسی به مواد غذایی مواجه خواهند شد، که تأثیر منفی بر امنیت غذایی دارد. درحالی‌که رژیم دوم و افزایش سطح سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی توانسته است تا حدودی تأثیرات منفی نااطمینانی بر امنیت غذایی را خنثی نمود. با توجه به نتایج مطالعۀ حاضر، مسئولان بایستی از یک‌سو، با اولویت‌دهی به تأمین منابع مالی سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی و تسهیل شرایط فعالیت بخش خصوصی و تعاونی‌ها در این زمینه و حمایت از کشاورزان گام‌های مؤثری بردارند؛ ازسویی دیگر، برای کاهش فاصلۀ قیمت‌ها، تنظیم تقاضای بازار محصولات کشاورزی و ایجاد شرایط ثبات قیمت موادغذایی نوعی مصونیت در مقابل نوسانات و شوک‌های کوتاه‌مدت ایجاد نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Nonlinear Relationship Between Food Price Uncertainty and Food Security in Iranian Households: Evidence from GAS Modelling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fateme Bagherzadeh Azar 1
  • Mohammadali Motafakerazad 2
1 Lecturer, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of food price uncertainty on food security in Iranian householdsduring the period 1981-2018 in a nonlinear model. To estimate uncertainty, the Generalized Autoregressive Score Model, and to estimate the effect of food price uncertainty on food security, the Smooth Transition Autoregressive model has been used. The results show that food price uncertainty in the first regime (low level of investment in agriculture) has a negative and significant effect and in the second regime (high level of investment in agriculture) has a negative and non-significant effect on food security. In the first regime, where the level of investment in the agricultural sector is below the threshold, as food price fluctuations increase, market uncertainty increases and signals with less transparency to producers and consumers. Under these circumstances, consumers will face the problem of reduced purchasing power and insecurity in access to food, which has a negative impact on food security. While, in the second regime and increasing the level of investment in the agricultural sector, the negative effects of uncertainty on food security can be partially offset. According to the results of the present study, officials should take effective steps on one hand, by prioritizing the financing of investment in the agricultural sector and facilitating the conditions of activity of the private and cooperatives sector in this field like moving from traditional to industrial agriculture. On the other hand, to reduce the price gap, regulate the market demand of agricultural products, and create conditions for food price stability, create a kind of protection against short-term fluctuations and shocks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Food Price Uncertainty
  • Food security
  • Generalized Autoregressive Score Model
  • Smooth Transition Autoregressive model
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