ارزیابی کارایی بانک‌های منتخب در ایران و ارتباط آن با متغیرهای درون بانکی و کلان اقتصادی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

پژوهش حاضر به اندازه­گیری کارایی 15 بانک منتخب ایران به تفکیک بانک­های خصوصی، دولتی و دولتی خصوصی شده طی دوره زمانی 1394-1385 با روش تحلیل پوششی داده‌ها (DEA) که روشی پویا و پیشرو در اندازه­گیری کارایی و بهره­وری است، می­پردازد. برای این منظور از متغیرهای دارایی­های ثابت، هزینه­های عملیاتی، سپرده­ها و حقوق صاحبان سهام به‌عنوان متغیر ورودی و متغیرهای سود خالص، جمع درآمدها و تسهیلات به‌عنوان متغیر خروجی استفاده شده است.
    در مرحله بعد با استفاده از مدل­های پانل تأثیر متغیرهای درون بانکی (نسبت سرمایه­گذاری به کل دارایی، نسبت بدهی به کل دارایی و اندازه بانک) و کلان اقتصادی (رشد اقتصادی، نرخ تورم، تغییر نرخ ارز، نوسانات نرخ تورم، نوسانات تغییر نرخ ارز و نرخ رشد نقدینگی) بر روی کارایی بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می­دهد که به‌طور میانگین، کارایی بانک­های دولتی 87%، کارایی بانک­های خصوصی 94% و کارایی بانک­های دولتی خصوصی­شده 98% است. براساس نتایج پژوهش، نااطمینانی نوسانات تغییر نرخ ارز و تورم، تأثیر منفی بر کارایی بانک­های ایران دارند. همچنین نرخ تورم و تغییرات نرخ ارز نیز با کارایی بانک­های ایران رابطه منفی و معناداری دارد. به‌منظور افزایش کارایی بانک­ها پیشنهاد می­شود که بانک­ها به سمت خصوصی شدن حرکت کنند و موجبات کاهش دارایی­های ثابت و هزینه­های عملیاتی خود را فرآهم کنند.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation the Effectiveness of Selected Banks in Iran and its Relationship with Banking Internal and Macroeconomic Variables

نویسنده [English]

  • hossein amiri
university of kharazmi
چکیده [English]

In economy based on the market, the banking system has a very high responsibility, and one of the most important economic components of the country is the banking system. Banks can provide good conditions for investment and increase employment and national production by providing financial capital for the sectors of the economy. Banks can create new job opportunities and better income distribution at the community level. In addition, banks are owners of personal and public property and domestic and foreign exchanges by keeping cash and facilitating its transfer. Also banks as agents of monetary policy, play an important role in economic stability. Considering the role and importance of the banking system in the economy, the fundamental question arises whether the banking system can meet the needs of monetary and banking affairs in the economy or not. In general, factors such as differences in equipping and allocating resources optimally, different constraints in laws and regulations (the ceiling of short-term and long-term facilities, etc.) and the cost of contracting between banks and the people (payroll) causes differences in efficiency and efficiency of various banks. Hence, evaluation of banks and financial institutions efficiency is of particular importance; Because, with the help of process of evaluating efficiency, we will be able to obtain useful and beneficial information on how to effectively manage affairs in order to achieve the goals set.
Iran economy in current situation, passes one of the most sensitive and breathtaking times of its life. In such a situation, there is a double burden and heavy duty on financial system, especially the banking industry of the country and making this industry more effective will help the country's economy. This research is an approach that can be used to evaluate Iran's banks dynamically on the basis of several real variables, considering the economic and environmental conditions of Iran, so that the scarce resources of the community would be desirable to be a step towards improving the efficiency of the Iranian banks.
In this research, the efficiency of Iranian banks is measured by using data envelopment analysis method and by selecting the input and output variables of the bank. For this purpose, fixed asset variables, operating costs, deposits and equity are used as input variable and net income variables, total income and facilities as output variable. Also, in the next stage, the effect of macroeconomic variables and internal banking variables on efficiency in two models is reviewed. In first model, the interbank variables include the ratio of investment to total assets, the ratio of debt to total assets and bank size, and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation rate, exchange rate and liquidity growth rate. In second model, fluctuations are used instead of exchange rate and inflation variables.
Regarding the results of government banks during the years of research has always been inefficient (87%). Among the government banks, Maskan bank was more efficient than other banks, and the bank's efficiency was 97%. Also, private banks during the 10-year period have an efficiency of 94%, whose efficiency is relatively good. Among the private banks, Parsian Bank is the best-performing bank. Finally, three of Maskan, Tejarat and Saderat Banks, which were formerly state-owned banks and now are private banks, have the best efficiency levels, and the average efficiency of these three banks is 98%. Be Among these three banks, Mellat Bank is more efficient than the rest of the banks.
In next step, in the form of panel models, the internal and external variables on the banking system efficiency during the period of 1394-1385 are considered in the form of two models. Regarding the results, it can be seen that the economic growth rate in both models has a positive and significant effect on efficiency of banks. Therefore, the conditions of the economic downturn and boom are effective on banks' efficiency, so that increase in the economic growth rate leads to increase the efficiency of the banks and vice versa. Also, the growth rate of liquidity does not have a significant relationship with the efficiency of banks. Inflation and exchange rate variables and their fluctuations have a negative and significant relationship with the efficiency of banks; so that the inflation rate and its fluctuations as well as the exchange rate and its fluctuations will reduce the efficiency of banks.
Considering the interbank variables, the ratio of investment to total assets has a positive relationship with efficiency. The reason for the positive relationship is that banks, by increasing the debt ratio, accumulate more deposits, can increase their efficiency by increasing facilities or service and production activities. In relation to the variables of the ratio of deposits to total assets and the ratio of debt to total assets, both models are considered to have a negative and significant effect on efficiency. In the case of the variables above, it can be said that increase of these variables increases the ability of the bank when it is subject to bankruptcy or when it has to pay non-financial debt. The size of the bank also has a positive and significant relationship with the efficiency of banks.
According to the proposal results, in order to increase the efficiency of banks, it is suggested as follows:
-Independence of Central Bank: The results of the research show that the uncertainty of inflation and exchange rate caused the ineffectiveness of Iranian banks; therefore, the central bank's independence to control more liquidity and reduce inflation will make banks more efficient. Also, by controlling the shocks affecting the real sector of the economy (import, exchange rate, ...) and in terms of appropriate economic policies, it can create a margin for economic enterprises, so that its impact by Some policies, such as uncertainty in the exchange rate and inflation, etc., do not lead to bankruptcy.
-Privatization and Specialization of Banks: The results of the research show that the efficiency of private and private banks is more than government banks. Therefore, it can be said that one of the factors influencing the efficiency of Iranian banks is their type of ownership (public, private). The implementation of general privatization policies, including Article 44 of the Constitution, in the banking system of the country, can be effective in making Iranian banks more efficient. The review of research literature also shows that the efficiency of private banks is higher than that of government banks.
-Banking firms: Due to the large amount of fixed assets in Iranian banks, the issue of banking is raised. The assessment of the banks financial statements indicates that their shareholder combination has many complexities and ambiguities. This complexity has even led banks to devote part of their resources to buying shares in other banks to reduce the risk of their investment. Although not legally prohibited it does in practice, make other firms and economic operators more vulnerable to open-minded facilities and healthy competition. Accordingly, Central bank should increase its oversight and stop banks from taking over.
- Ranking System of Iranian Banks: Although ranking has ambiguities and problems, it serves a large service to the financial markets. The ranking of banks and financial institutions is also important, with the difference that the ranking of banks and financial institutions is much more complicated than non-financial institutions and institutions in the manufacturing and service sector. It is recommended that the central bank announce bank ratings based on health of the bank and then link the legal reserve rate to the banks' ratings. As dysfunctional banks should pay more money to the central bank and should be integrated into efficient banks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • efficiency
  • Data Envelopment Analysis
  • Iran's Selected Banks
  • Internal and External variables of bank
امامی میبدی، علی (1384). اصول اندازه­گیری کارایی و بهره­وری (علمی-کاربردی)، چاپ دوم، انتشارات مؤسسه مطالعات و پژوهش­های بازرگانی، تهران.
امامی میبدی، علی؛ خوشکلام خسروشاهی و مهدوی، روح­الله (1394). کارایی و بهره­وری از دیدگاه اقتصادی، چاپ اول، انتشارات دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران.
حسن­زاده، علی (1386). «کارآیی و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در نظام بانکی ایران»، دوفصلنامه جستارهای اقتصادی ایران، 4(7): 75-98.
خیابانی، ناصر و حمیدی صحنه، مهدی (1389). «اندازه‌گیری کارایی هزینه و کشش‌های جایگزینی مکملی عوامل هزینه در سیستم بانکی ایران»، فصلنامه برنامهریزی و بودجه، 15(1): 55-77.
سپهردوست، حمید و افشاری، فتح‌الله (1395). «اثر توسعه مالی و اعطای تسهیلات بانکی بر بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در بخش صنعت»، فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 5(20): 221-251.
شاهآبادی، ابوالفضل و داوری کیش، راضیه (1396). «تعیین‌کننده‌های عملکرد بانکی اقتصاد ایران در قالب معادلات همزمان»، فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 6(24): 125-151.
طیب‌نیا، علی و ترشابی، آرزو (1390). «محاسبه کارایی بانک­های ایران با استفاده از شکل تبعی انعطاف‌پذیر جامع فوریر و تحمیل شرایط منظم»، فصلنامه برنامهریزی و بودجه، 16(3): 23-50.
عسگرزاده، عباس؛ ثنایی، غلامرضا و ابراهیمی، سید احمد (1394). «ارزیابی کارایی بانک­های ایران و مقایسه با سایر کشورهای اسلامی و غیراسلامی با رویکرد تحلیل پوششی داده­ها»، فصلنامه علمی تخصصی توسعه بانکداری و مالیه اسلامی، سال اول، شماره 4: 12-20.
کردبچه، حمید و پردل نوش‌آبادی، لیلا (1390). «تبیین عوامل مؤثر بر مطالبات معوق در صنعت بانکداری ایران»، پژوهش­های اقتصادی ایران، 16(49): 150-117.
گیلک حکیم­آبادی، محمدتقی؛ اثنی‌عشری، ابوالقاسم و احمدپور، هادی (1385). «بررسی کارایی بانک‌های تجاری در ایران: مطالعه موردی بانک صادرات مازندران». فصلنامه جستارهای اقتصادی، 5(3): 127-156.
محقق­نیا، محمدجواد؛ ابراهیمی، سید احمد و محرابی، لیلا (1393). «راهکارهای ارتقاء عملیات بانکداری بدون ربا»، بیست و پنجمین همایش بانکداری اسلامی، شماره 3، 100-108.
مهرگان، محمدرضا (1395). تحلیل پوششی داده­ها: مدل­های کمی در ارزیابی عملکرد سازمان‌ها، چاپ سوم، انتشارات کتاب دانشگاهی، تهران.
نادری کزج، محمود و صادقی، حسین (1382). «بررسی کارآیی بانکداری بدون ربا در کشورهای مختلف و مقایسه بانک­های غیرربوی با بانک­های ربوی در جهان با استفاده از روش تحلیل پوششی داده­ها»، پژوهش­های اقتصادی، دوره 3، شماره 10-9: 58-25.
Akhavein, J.D.; Berger, A.N. and Humphrey, D. (1997). “The Effects of Megamergers of Efficiency and Prices: Evidence from a Bank Profit Function”, Journal Review of Industrial Organization, 12(1): 95-139.
Allayannis, G.; Ihrig, J. and Weston, J. (2001). “Exchange-Rate Hedging: Financial vs. Operational Strategies”, American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 91 (2): 391-395.
Arellano, M. and Bond, S.R. (1991). “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58(2): 277-297.
Arellano, M. and Bover, O. (1995). “Another look at the Instrumental Variables Estimation of Error-Components Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1): 29-51.
Arun, T.G. and Turner, J.D. (2004). “Corporate Governance of Banks in Developing Economies: Concepts and Issues”. Corporate Governance: An International Review, 12(3): 371-377.
Athanasoglou, P.; Brissimis, S. and Delis, M. (2008). “Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 18(2): 121-136.
Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 4th Ed, New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Banker, R.D.; Charnes, A. and Cooper, W.W. (1984). “Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis”, Management Science, 30(9): 1078-1092.
Barton, T.L.; Shenkir, W.G. and Walker, P.L. (2002). Making Enterprise Risk Management Pay Off, FT Press.
Batir, T.E.; Volkman, D.A. and Gungor, B. (2017). “Determinants of Bank Efficiency in Turkey: Participation Banks Versus Conventional Banks”, Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(2): 86-96.
Berger, A.; Hanweck, D. and Humphrey, D. (1987). “Competitive Viability in Banking: Scale, Scope, and Product Mix Economies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 20(3): 501-520.
Bernanke, B.S. and Gertler, M. (1989). “Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations”, American Economic Review, 79(1): 14-31.
Bernanke, B.S.; Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. (1996). “The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78(1):1-15.
Bikker, J.A. and Hu, H. (2002). “Cyclical Patterns in Profits, Provisioning and Lending of Banks Pro-cyclicality of the New Basel Capital Requirements”, BNL Quarterly Review, 55(221): 143-175.
Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). “Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models”, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1): 115-143.
Bourke, P. (1989). “Concentration and other Determinants of Bank Profitability in Europe", Journal of Banking and Finance, 13(1): 65-79.
Boyd, John H. and Runkle, D. (1993). “Size and Performance of Banking Firms”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 31(1): 47-67.
Bukhari, M.S.; khokhar, I. and Nauman, M. (2015). “Technical Efficiency of Banks and the Effects of Risk Factors on the Bank Efficiency in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries”, Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 5(2): 109-122.
Carey, M. (1998). “Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios”, The Journal of Finance, 53 (4): 1363-1387.
Charnes, A.; Cooper, W.W. and Rhodes, E. (1978). “Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making Units”, European Journal of Operational Research, 2(6): 429- 444.
Chioma, D.O.; Sabina, E.A. and Ebue, M.I. (2015). “Relationship between Inflation and Firms’ Performance-Evidence from Nigeria”, World Applied Sciences Journal, 33(5): 814-822.
Ciahak, M. and Hesse, H. (2008). Islamic Banks and Financial Stability; an Empirical Analysis, IMF Working Paper 16.
Dell’Ariccia, G. and Marquez, R. (2004). “Information and Bank Credit Allocation”, Journal of Financial Economics, 72 (1): 185-214.
Eichengreen, B. and Gibson, H.D. (2001). Greek Banking at the Dawn of the New Millennium, CEPR Discussion Paper.
Fama, E.F. (1965). “The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices”, Journal of Business, 38(1): 34-105.
Farrell, M.J. (1957). “The Measurement of Productive Efficiency”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 120(3): 253-281.
Fisher, I. (1933). “The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions”, Econometrica, 1: 337-357.
Goddard, J.; Molyneux, P. and Wilson, J. (2004). “The Profitability of European Banks: A Cross-Sectional and Dynamic Panel Analysis”, Manchester School, 72(3): 363-381.
González, F. (2005). “Bank Regulation and Risk-Taking Incentives: An International Comparison of Banking Risk”, Bank Finance, 29(5): 1153-1184.
Grammatikos, T.; Saunders, A. and Swary, I. (1986). “Returns and Risks of U.S. Bank Foreign Currency Activities”, Journal of Finance, 41(3): 671-682.
Jensen, M. and Meckling, W. (1976). “Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Cost and Ownership Structure”, Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4): 305-60.
Johnes, J.; Izzeldin, M. and Pappas, V. (2014). “A Comparison of Performance of Islamic and Conventional Banks 2004 to 2009”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 103: 93-107, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2013.07.016.
Karagiannis, S.T. and Papadopoulos, S. (2009). “Recent Evidence on Efficacy in Southern European Banking”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 26(2): 95-112.
Kaufman, George G. (1994). “Bank Contagion: A Review of the Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Financial Services Research, 8(2): 123-50.
Khan, F. (2010). “How Islamic is Islamic banking”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 76(3): 805-820.
King, R. G. and Levine, R. (1993a). “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3): 717-737.
King, R. G. and Levine, R. (1993b). “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3): 513-542.
Kiyotaki, N., Moore, J. (1997); “Credit cycles”, Journal of Political Economy, 105(2): 211-48.
La Porta, R.; Lopez-de-Silanes, F.; Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R.W. (1998). “Law and Finance”, Journal of Political Economy, 106(6): 1113-1155.
Levine, R. (1997). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2): 688-726.
Levine, R. (1998). “The Legal Environment, Banks, and Long Run Economic Growth”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 30: 596-613.
Lown, C.S.; Donald D.P. and Rohatgi, S. (2000). Listening to loan officers: The impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review 6, 1–16.
Minsky, H.P. (1986). Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. Yale University Press.
Miller, S.M. and Noulas, A.G. (1997). “Portfolio Mix and Large-bank Profitability in the USA”, Applied Economics, 29(4): 505-512.
Modigliani, F. and Miller, M. (1958). The Costs of Capital, Corporation Finance, and the Theory of Investment, The American Economic Review.
Mohammed, U.; Danjuma, M. and Mohammad, A. (2015) “Conceptual Exposition of the Effect of Inflation on Bank Performance”, Journal of World Economic Research, 3(5): 55-59.
Molyneux, P. and Thornton, J. (1992). “Determinants of European Bank Profitability: A Note”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 16(6): 1173-1178.
Nelson, D.B. (1991). “Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach”, Econometrica, 59: 347-70.
Papagiannis, D.G. (2014). “Measurement of Efficiency in Greek Banking Industries in The Light of the Financial Crisis”, European Research Studies, 17(1):19-38.
Pierce, J. (1997). Efficiency Progress in The New South Wales Government, NSW Treasury Research & Information Paper, No. TRP97-8, NSW Treasury, Sydney, Internet: [http://www.Treasury.nsw.gov.edu/].
Rasiah, D. (2010). “Theoretical Framework of Profitability as Applied to Commercial Banks in Malaysia”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 19(19): 75-97.
Rinaldi, L and Sanchis-Arellano, A. (2006). Household Debt Sustainability, what Explains Household Non-Performing Loans? An Empirical Analysis, European Central Bank Working Paper Series 570.
Sherman, D. and Gold, F. (1985). “Bank Branch Operating Efficiency; Evaluation with Data Envelopment Analysis”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 9(2): 297-315.
Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R.W. (1997). “A Survey of Corporate Governance”, Journal of Finance, 52(2): 737-783.
Sufian, F.; Kamarudin, F. and Nassir, A.M. (2016). “Determinants of Efficiency in the Malaysian Banking Sector: Does Bank Origins Matter?”, Intellectual Economics, 10(1): 38-54.
Tahir, I.M.; Nor Mazlina, A.B. and Haron, S. (2011). “Evaluating Efficiency of Islamic Banks Using Data Envelopment Analysis; International Evidence", Journal of Islamic Economics, Banking and Finance, 7(1): 11-24.
Wong, T.; Fong, T.; Li, K. and Choi, H. (2010). An Assessment of the Long-Term Economic Impact of the New Regulatory Reform on Hong Kong, Working Paper Series, Bank of Hong Kong.
Yudistira, D. (2004). “Efficiency in Islamic Banking; an Empirical Analysis of 18 Banks”, Islamic Economic Studies, 12(1), 1-19.