عدم حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده نفت و رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا

چکیده

ارتباط بین منابع نفت به‌عنوان یکی از نهاده‌های مهم تولید و سطح فعالیت‌های اقتصادی، یک موضوع پایه‌ای در مطالعات تجربی در زمینه اقتصاد کلان می‌باشد. از سوی دیگر بر اساس بخشی از ایده مدل‌های جدید رشد اقتصادی، عدم حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده منابع تجدید‌ناپذیر نشأت گرفته از احتمال افزایش بر اثر رشد تکنولوژی و کشف ذخایر غیر قابل ‌انتظار و احتمال کاهش بر اثر زلزله، طوفان و جنگ، دارای اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی می‌باشد و بدین سبب تخصیص زمانی منابع انرژی تجدیدناپذیر در راستای عدالت بین نسلی و رشد اقتصادی بلندمدت حائز اهمیت نمی‌باشد. بر این اساس هدف اصلی مقاله بررسی تجربی ایده مذکور به‌واسطه تخمین اثرات مستقیم عدم‌حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده نفت بر روی رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی کشور ایران با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه در مقطع زمانی 92-1359در قالب مدل
 Multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR می‌باشد. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که عدم حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده نفت دارای اثرات به‌طور آماری معنی‌داری بر روی رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی در اقتصاد ایران در دوره مورد بررسی نبوده و از این رو تخصیص زمانی منابع انرژی تجدیدناپذیر در راستای عدالت بین‌نسلی و رشد اقتصادی بلندمدت حائز اهمیت می‌باشد. همچنین براساس بررسی رفتار پویای متغیرها با استفاده از نمودارهای عکس‌العمل تحریک، ملاحظه می‌شود که پاسخ به نوسانات مثبت و منفی متقارن می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty of Oil Proved Reserves and Economic Growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elaheh Asadi Mehmandosti 1
  • Fatemeh Bazazan 2
  • mir hossein mousavi 3
1 Ph.D. student, Department of Economics, Alzahra University
چکیده [English]

The relationship between the oil as a one of the principal factors in the production and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. Also, on the base of some optimistic new economic growth models, uncertainty of non-renewable proved reserves through positive probability including technology growth and discovering unexpected reserves, is one of the factors which positively affects on the economic growth; therefore, time allocation of non-renewable energy resources to ensure long term economic growth and intergenerational justice is not important. So, to find some evidences about it, in this research we try to find experimentally direct effects of uncertainty of oil proved reserves on macroeconomics of Iran by using annually data from 1980 to 2013 by using Multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR model. We find that uncertainty in oil proved reserves has not had statistically significant effect on aggregate output in the country in our sample, which time allocation of non-renewable oil proved reserves to ensure long term economic growth and intergenerational justice must be attend. We also find some evidence that the responses to positive and negative shocks are symmetric.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty
  • Oil proved reserves
  • Time allocation of resources
  • Vector autoregression multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR

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