عدم حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده نفت و رشد اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا

چکیده

ارتباط بین منابع نفت به‌عنوان یکی از نهاده‌های مهم تولید و سطح فعالیت‌های اقتصادی، یک موضوع پایه‌ای در مطالعات تجربی در زمینه اقتصاد کلان می‌باشد. از سوی دیگر بر اساس بخشی از ایده مدل‌های جدید رشد اقتصادی، عدم حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده منابع تجدید‌ناپذیر نشأت گرفته از احتمال افزایش بر اثر رشد تکنولوژی و کشف ذخایر غیر قابل ‌انتظار و احتمال کاهش بر اثر زلزله، طوفان و جنگ، دارای اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی می‌باشد و بدین سبب تخصیص زمانی منابع انرژی تجدیدناپذیر در راستای عدالت بین نسلی و رشد اقتصادی بلندمدت حائز اهمیت نمی‌باشد. بر این اساس هدف اصلی مقاله بررسی تجربی ایده مذکور به‌واسطه تخمین اثرات مستقیم عدم‌حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده نفت بر روی رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی کشور ایران با استفاده از داده‌های سالانه در مقطع زمانی 92-1359در قالب مدل
 Multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR می‌باشد. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از آن است که عدم حتمیت میزان ذخایر اثبات‌شده نفت دارای اثرات به‌طور آماری معنی‌داری بر روی رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی واقعی در اقتصاد ایران در دوره مورد بررسی نبوده و از این رو تخصیص زمانی منابع انرژی تجدیدناپذیر در راستای عدالت بین‌نسلی و رشد اقتصادی بلندمدت حائز اهمیت می‌باشد. همچنین براساس بررسی رفتار پویای متغیرها با استفاده از نمودارهای عکس‌العمل تحریک، ملاحظه می‌شود که پاسخ به نوسانات مثبت و منفی متقارن می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty of Oil Proved Reserves and Economic Growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elaheh Asadi Mehmandosti 1
  • Fatemeh Bazazan 2
  • mir hossein mousavi 3
1 Ph.D. student, Department of Economics, Alzahra University
چکیده [English]

The relationship between the oil as a one of the principal factors in the production and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. Also, on the base of some optimistic new economic growth models, uncertainty of non-renewable proved reserves through positive probability including technology growth and discovering unexpected reserves, is one of the factors which positively affects on the economic growth; therefore, time allocation of non-renewable energy resources to ensure long term economic growth and intergenerational justice is not important. So, to find some evidences about it, in this research we try to find experimentally direct effects of uncertainty of oil proved reserves on macroeconomics of Iran by using annually data from 1980 to 2013 by using Multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR model. We find that uncertainty in oil proved reserves has not had statistically significant effect on aggregate output in the country in our sample, which time allocation of non-renewable oil proved reserves to ensure long term economic growth and intergenerational justice must be attend. We also find some evidence that the responses to positive and negative shocks are symmetric.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty
  • Oil proved reserves
  • Time allocation of resources
  • Vector autoregression multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR
دژپسند، فرهاد (1384)،"عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی ایران"، پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، شماره 3: 47-13.
دهقان منشادی، محمد وپوررحیم، پروین (1392)؛"رابطه بین بی‌ثباتی اقتصاد کلان و رشد اقتصادی در ایران"، پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، شماره 67: 192-171.
سلمانی، بهزاد؛ بهبودی، داود؛ اصغرپور، حسین و ممی‌پور، سیاب (1391)،"اثر بی‌ثباتی درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران با تأکید بر حساب ذخیره‌ی ارزی"، پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان، شماره 14: 128-103.
Anderson, C. )1987(; “The production process: Inputs and wastes.”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 14: 1-12.
Barnett, H. and Morse, C. (1963); “Scarcity and Growth.”,Resource for the Future, Washington, D.C.
Barro, R. and Sala-I-Martin, X. (1978); Economic Growth, McGraw Hill, New York.
Bollerslev, T.(1986); “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity.”, Journal of Econometrics, 31: 307-27.
Daly, H. (1991); Steady State Economics., Island press, Washington, D.C.
Dasgupta, P. and Heal, G. (1974); “The optimal depletion of natural resources.”, Review of Economic Studies, Symposium, 3-28.
Dasgupta, P. and Stiglitz, J.(1981); “Resource depletion under technological uncertainty.”, Econometrica, 49: 85-104.
Elder, J. (1995);“Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Monetary Policy and Monetary Policy Uncertainty ”,Ph.D. dissertation, University of Virginia.
Elder, J. (2003); “An Impulse-Response-Function for a Vector Autoregression with Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean.”, Economics Letters, 79, 21-26.
Elder, J. (2004); “Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Volatility.” ,Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36, 911-28.
Elder, J. and Serletis, A. (2010); “Oil Price Uncertainty.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42: 1137-1159.
Engle, R. F. (1982); “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of UK Inflation.”, Econometrica, 50, 987–1008.
Engle, R.F.;Lilien, D.M. and Robins, R.P. (1987); “Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia In The Term Structure: The ARCH-M Model.”, Econometrica, Volume 55, Issue 2: 391.
Engle, R. F. and Kenneth, F. K. (1995); “Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH.”, Econometric Theory, 11: 122-50.
Gerlagha, R. and Keyzerb, M. (2004); “Path-dependence in a Ramsey model with resource amenities and limited regeneration.”,Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 28: 1159-1184.
Hamilton, J. D. (1994); Time Series Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Hamilton, K. and Ruta, G. (2006); “Capital accumulation and resource depletion: a Hartwick rule counterfactual.”, Environmental and resource economics, 34: 517-533.
Hartwick, J. (1977); “International equity and the investing of rents from exhaustible resources.”,American Economic Review, 67: 972-974.
Hartwick, J. and Olewiler, N. (1986); “The economics of natural resource use.”,Cambridge, Philadelphia, 1986.
Hotelling, H. (1931);“ The economics of exhaustible resources.”, Journal of Political Economy, 39: 137-175.
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2003); “Energy to 2050. Scenarios for a Sustainable Future.” OECD/IEA.
Kahn, H. (1976); The Next 200 Years: A Scenario for America and the World, Morrow, New York.
Kahn, J.R. (2005); The economic approach to environmental and natural resources., Thomson Southwestern, Mason.
Kiseok ,L.; Shawn, Ni. and Ronald, A. R. (1995); “Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability.”, The Energy Journal, 16, 39-56.
Malthus, T. )1798); An Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the FutureImprovement of Society.; Ward Lock, London.
Martinet, V. and Doyen, L.(2007); “Sustainability of an economy with an exhaustible resource: A viable control approach.”;Resource and Energy Economics, 29, 17-39.
Meadows, D.L.)1972(;The Limits to Growth.,Pan Books Ltd., London.
Mill, J.S.(2002); Principles of Political Economy.,Appleton, New York.
Na, Li.; Xiaoling, Z.; Minjun, Sh. and Shenglv, Zh. (2016); “The prospects of China's long term economic development and CO2 emissions under fossil fuel supply constraints.”, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, In press, Corrected proof, Available online.
Pagan, A. (1984); “Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors.”,International Economic Review, 25, 221–47.
Pasqual, J. and Souto, G. (2003); “Sustainability in natural resource management.”, Ecological Economics,46: 47-59.
Radler, M. (2006);“Oil production, reserves increase slightly in 2006. ”,Oil & Gas Journal, 104 (47): 20-23.
Rahman, S. and Serletis, A. (2012), “Oil price uncertainty and the Canadian economy: evidence from a VARMA, GARCH-in-Mean, asymmetric BEKK model.”, Energy economics, Volume 34, Issue 2: 603-610.
Roosevelt, T. )1908(; “Conservation as a National Duty.”,Opening address at theConference of overnors: Washington, DC.
Salo, S. and Tahvonen, O. (2001);“Oligopoly equilibria in nonrenewable resource markets.”,Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25 (5): 671-702.
Schilling, M. and Chiang L. (2011); “The effect of natural resources on a sustainable development policy: The approach of non-sustainable externalities.”,Energy Policy, 39: 990-998.
Schmalensee, R.; Stoker, T. and Judson, R. (1998); “World carbon dioxide emissions: 1950-2050.”,The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80: 15-27.
Serletis, A. (2012); Oil Price Uncertainty, World ScientificPress.
Simon, J. (1996); The Ultimate Resource2, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Solow, R.M. (1974); “Intergenerational equity and exhaustible resources.”,Review of Economic Studies, Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources: 29-46.
Stamford da Silva, A. (2008); “Growth with exhaustible resource and endogenous extraction rate”, Economic Modelling, 25: 1165-1174.
Stiglitz, J.E. (1974); “Growth with exhaustible natural resources: efficient and optimal growth paths.”, Review of Economic Studies, Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources, 123-137.
Tahvonen, O. (2000); “Economic Sustainability and Scarcity of Natural Resources: A Brief Historical Review. Resources for the Future”, Washington, DC.
Tilton, J. E. (1996);“Exhaustible resources and sustainable development.”,Resources Policy, 22: 91-97.