تأثیر رشد مصرف انرژی بر رشد ارزش‌افزوده بخش‌های مختلف اقتصاد ایران: مدل‌های مارکف

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

چکیده

رشد اقتصادی از فاکتورهای بسیار مهمی است که باید به‌منظور بررسی تغییرات برنامه‌ریزی‌شده در مصرف انرژی در نظر گرفته شود؛ بر این اساس در این تحقیق با استفاده از داده­های سالیانه 1346 تا 1392، ارتباط بین مصرف انرژی و رشد ارزش‌افزوده بخش­های مختلف اقتصاد ایران بررسی‌شده است نتایج تحقیق حاضر بیانگر اثر مثبت رشد مصرف انرژی بر رشد ارزش‌افزوده بخش صنعت و معدن و حمل نقل کشور در فاز رکود اقتصادی حاکم بر این بخش­های است، از طرفی در بخش کشاورزی، در رژیم رکود شاهد اثرگذاری منفی رشد مصرف انرژی بر رشد ارزش‌افزوده این بخش هستیم. نتایج بیانگر این است که در فاز رونق، رشد مصرف انرژی دارای اثر معنی­داری بر ارزش‌افزوده بخش­های مختلف اقتصاد کشور نمی­باشد. نتایج فوق بیانگر این است که اجرای سیاست­های مانند هدفمندی یارانه­های انرژی، درصورتی‌که زمینه­ساز کاهش مصرف انرژی شود، بسته به شرایط حاکم بر اقتصاد کشور می­تواند اثرات متفاوتی را بر روی ارزش‌افزوده بخش­های مختلف اقتصاد ایران داشته باشد، درصورتی­که چنین سیاست­های زمینه‌ساز رکود اقتصادی گردند یا در شرایط رکود حاکم بر اقتصاد کشور اجرا گردند، می‌توانندزمینه­ساز رکود فزاینده‌تری در اقتصاد شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Energy Consumption Growth on Value-added Growth of Economic Sectors: Markov Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad khezri 1
  • mohsen khezri 2
چکیده [English]

In this paper an attempt is made to study the impact of energy consumption growth on forming regimes of low and high value-added growth of economic sectors of Iran economy by using seasonal data from 1346 to 1392. So, in some models, Markov switching model with the supposition of fixed transition probabilities by value-added growth of economic sectors variable were expanded. According to modeling results, increase in energy consumption growth, leads to increase in value-added growth of economic sectors in Iran economy. In addition in modeling value-added growth of agriculture group and value-added growth of manufacturing and mining group, the positive effect with motion of low value-added growth regime to high value-added growth regime is increased. also in value-added growth of transportation storage and communications group, the positive effect for both regimes are great.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Consumption
  • value-added growth of economic sectors
  • Markov switching model

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