An Estimation of the Tax Evasion by Tanzi Method and Analysis the Effect of Fiscal Instruments

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Mazandaran University, Babolsar, Iran

2 Master of Economic Sciences, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Mazandaran University, Babolsar, Iran.

Abstract

In Iran’s economy, tax revenue has constructed a significant part of government’s financial resources in recent years; based on the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in 2017, about 45% of the government’s financial resources were tax revenue. Considering different components of the government’s financial resources, factors such as oil sanctions, oil prices, oil sales, and tax evasion are the most crucial factors affecting government revenue in Iran’s economy. Thus, due to the significance of tax evasion as the most influential factor on government income, the present study has examined the effect of government total size and its components on tax evasion in Iran between 1979 and 2019 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. According to the two examined models in the study, government’s total and current sizes have a direct (unfavorable) effect on tax evasion, while the government’s developmental size has an indirect (favorable) effect. Furthermore, based on both examined models, the Financial Depth Index and unemployment directly (unfavorably) affect tax evasion. Also, total, direct and indirect taxes have an unfavorable effect on tax evasion.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

- بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، نماگرهای اقتصادی، شمارۀ 91، سه‎ماهۀ چهارم سال 1396.
- تشکینی، احمد، (1384). اقتصادسنجی کاربردی به کمک Microfit. تهران: مؤسسه فرهنگی هنری دیباگران.
- جمشیدی‌نوید، بابک؛ و گراوند، تورج، (1395). «بررسی رابطه بین فساد مالی و فرار مالیاتی در شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران». دومین کنفرانس بین‌المللی مدیریت امور مالی، تجارت، بانک، اقتصاد و حسابداری.
- چمن، طیبه؛ مهاجری، پریسا؛ عرب‌مازاریزدی، علی، (1398). «بررسی تأثیر توسعه مالی بر فرار مالیاتی در ایران». پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 19 (1)، 105-139.
- دهقان‌هراتی، علی؛ مهرابی بشرآبادی؛ حسین و رهبردهقان، علی‌رضا، (1393). «بررسی تاثیر سیاست های مالی و مالیاتی بر تجارت بخش کشاورزی ایران». برنامه‌ریزی و بودجه، 19 (1): 111-128.
- زروکی، شهریار، (1398). «اثر اندازۀ دولت بر آلایندگی محیط زیست در ایران». تحقیقات مدل‌سازی اقتصادی، 9 (36): صص 195-234.
- ضیاتبار احمدی، مقداد؛ و کریمی پتانلار، سعید، (1398). «مالیات بر ارزش‌افزوده و فرار مالیاتی». فصلنامۀ سیاست‌های مالی و اقتصادی، ۷ (۲۷): ۷۱-۸۶.
- طیبی، سیدکمیل؛ و صادقی، عبدالرسول، (1396). «اثرات تحریم‌های بین‌المللی و سایر عوامل تأثیرگذار بر نرخ ارز در ایران». تحقیقات اقتصادی، 52 (3): 641-661.
- عرب‌مازاریزدی، علی، (1380). «اقتصاد سیاه در ایران اندازه، علل و آثار آن در سه دهه اخیر». فصلنامۀ برنامه‌ریزی و بودجه، ۶ (۲ و ۳): ۳-۶۰.
- غفاری، هادی؛ پورکاظمی، محمدحسین؛ خدادادکاشی، فرهاد؛ و یونسی، علی، (1396). «تعیین مقادیر بهینه ابزارهای سیاست مالی با استفاده از رهیافت تئوری کنترل بهینه پویا». سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی، 9 (17): 83-118.
- مطلبی، معصومه؛ علیزاده، محمد؛ و فرجی‌دیزجی، سجاد، (1398). «برآورد اقتصاد سایه و فرار مالیاتی با‌ استفاده ‌از متغیرهای انضباط مالی دولت». فصلنامۀ اقتصاد مقداری، 16 (4): 69-100.
- مهدوی‌عادلی، محمدحسین؛ قزلباش، اعظم؛ و دانش‎نیا، محمد، (1391). «اثر تغییرات قیمت نفت بر متغیرهای عمده کلان اقتصاد ایران». فصلنامۀ اقتصاد محیط‎زیست و انرژی، 1 (3): 131-170.
- نمازی، محمد؛ و اسماعیل‌پور، حسن، (1399). «تأثیر استانداردهای بین‌المللی گزارشگری مالی (IFRS) بر فرار مالیاتی و اجتناب مالیاتی». دانش حسابداری، 11 (1): 1-33.
- هادیان، ابراهیم؛ و تحویلی، علی، (1392). «شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر فرار مالیاتی در اقتصاد ایران». فصلنامۀ برنامه‌ریزی و بودجه، 18 (2): 39-58.
کشاورز حداد، غلامرضا؛ ابونوری، اسمعیل؛ و جهانی، طاهره، (1399). «نااطمینانی درآمد نفت، تحریم‌ها و نوسانات متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان». پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، 25 (82): 1-42.
 
- Alm, J.; Liu, Y. & Zhang, K., (2019). “Financial constraints and firm tax evasion”. International Tax and Public Finance, 26(1): 71-102.
- Amara, I. & Khlif, H. (2018). “Financial crime, corruption and tax evasion: a cross-country investigation”. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 21(4): 545-554.‏
- Amoh, J. K. & Ali-Nakyea, A., (2019). “Does corruption cause tax evasion? Evidence from an emerging economy”. Journal of Money Laundering Control, 22(2): 217-232.
- Arab Mazar Yazdi, A., (2001). “Black economy in Iran, its size, causes and effects in the last three decades”. Planning and Budgeting Quarterly, 6 (2 & 3): 3-60 (In Persian).
- Asimakopoulos, S. & Karavias, Y., (2016). “The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis”. Economics Letters, 139: 65-68.
- Canh, N. P. & Thanh, S. D., (2020). “Financial development and the shadow economy: A multi-dimensional analysis”. Economic Analysis and Policy, 67: 37-54.
- Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Economic Indicators, Number 91, Fourth Quarter of 2017.
- Chaman, T.; Mohajeri, P. & Arabmazar Yazdi, A., (2019). “The impact of financial development on tax evasion in Iran”. Economics Research, 19(72): 105-139 (In Persian).
- Crane, S. E. & Nourzad, F., (1986). “Inflation and tax evasion: An empirical analysis”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68(2): 217-223.
- D’Agostino, E.; De Benedetto, M. A. & Sobbrio, G., (2021). “Tax evasion and government size: Evidence from Italian provinces”. Economia Politica, 38(3): 1149-1187.‏
- Dehgan Harati, A.; Mehrabi Boshrabadi, H. & Rahbar Dehghan, A., (2014). “Survey the effect of financial and taxation policies on agricultural trade in Iran”. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, 19(1): 111-128 (In Persian).
- Ghafari, H.; Pour Kazemi, M. H.; Khodad Kashi, F. & Younessi, A., (2017). “Determining the optimal tax rate using a dynamic approach to the optimal control theory”. The Journal of Economic Policy, 9(17): 81-118 (In Persian).
- Goel, R. K. & Nelson, M. A., (2011). “Measures of corruption and determinants of US corruption”. Economics of Governance, 12(2): 155-176.
- Günther, I. & Launov, A., (2012). “Informal employment in developing countries: Opportunity or last resort?”. Journal of Development Economics, 97(1): 88-98.
- Hadian, E. & Tahvili, A., (2013). “Tax evasion and its determinants in the Iranian economy (1971-2007)”. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, 18(2): 39-58 (In Persian).
- Hajamini, M. & Falahi, M. A., (2018). “Economic growth and government size in developed European countries: A panel threshold approach”. Economic Analysis and Policy, 58: 1-13.
- Halkos, G. E.; Papageorgiou, G. J.; Halkos, E. G. & Papageorgiou, J. G., (2020). “Public debt games with corruption and tax evasion”. Economic Analysis and Policy, 66: 250-261.
- Hmotalleb, M.; Alizadeh, M. & Faraji Dizaji, S., (2020). “Estimating shadow economy and tax evasion using governmental financial discipline variables”. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 16(4): 69-100 (In Persian).
- Jalil, A.; Tariq, R. & Bibi, N., (2014). “Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach”. Economic Modelling, 37: 120-126.
- Jamshidi Navid, B. & Gravand, T., (2016). “Investigating the relationship between financial corruption and tax evasion in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange”. 2nd International Conference on Financial Management, Trade, Banking, Economics and Accounting (In Persian).
- Keshavarz Haddad, G.; Abounoori, E. & Jahani, T., (2020). “Oil revenue uncertainty, sanctions and the volatility of macroeconomic variables”. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 25(82): 1-42 (In Persian).
- Khan, R. E. A. & Gill, A. R., (2010). “Determinants of inflation: A case of Pakistan (1970-2007)”. Journal of Economics, 1(1): 45-51.
- Li, L. & Ma, G., (2015). “Government size and tax evasion: Evidence from China”. Pacific Economic Review, 20(2): 346-364.
- López, J. J., (2017). “A quantitative theory of tax evasion”. Journal of Macroeconomics, 53: 107-126.
- Mahdavi Adeli, M.; Ghezalbash, A. & Daneshnia, M., (2012). “The effect of oil price changes on some of the main Iranian macroeconomic variables”. Iranian Energy Economics, 1(3): 131-170 (In Persian).
- Motameni, M., (2021). “Fly under the tax radar: Informal sales in the process industries”. Iranian Economic Review, 25(1): 101-106.
- Namazi, M. & Esmaeilpour, H., (2020). “Impacts of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) on tax evasion and tax avoidance”. Journal of Accounting Knowledge, 11(1): 1-33 (In Persian).
- Payne, J. E. & Saunoris, J. W., (2020). “Corruption and firm tax evasion in transition economies: Results from censored quantile instrumental variables estimation”. Atlantic Economic Journal, 48(2): 195-206.
- Roubini, N. & Salai Martin, X., (1995). “A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and Financial repression”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 35(2): 275-301.
- Schneider, F. & Enste, D. H., (2000). “Shadow economies: Size, causes, and consequences”. Journal of Economic Literature, 38(1): 77-114.
- Tayebi, S. K. & Sadeghi, A., (2017). “The impacts of international sanctions and other factors affecting exchange rate in Iran”. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat-E-Eghtesadi), 52(3): 641-661 (In Persian).
- Teshkini, A., (2005). Applied econometrics with the help of Microfit. Tehran: Dibagaran Cultural and Artistic Institute (In Persian).
- Yamen, A.; Allam, A.; Bani-Mustafa, A. & Uyar, A., (2018). “Impact of institutional environment quality on tax evasion: A comparative investigation of old versus new EU members”. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 32: 17-29.
- Zaroki, S., (2019). “Effect of government size on environmental pollution in Iran”. Journal of Economic Modeling Research, 9(36): 195-234 (In Persian).
- Ziatabar Ahmadi, M. & Karimi Petanlar, S., (2019). “Value added tax and tax evasion”. Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 7 (27): 71-86 (In Persian).
Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 11, Issue 42
August 2022
Pages 83-108

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics