The Impact of BRICS Plus Membership on Iran’s Economic Development Indicators (The GTAP Approach)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, SR.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author).

3 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The BRICS Plus, encompassing about 45 percent of the world’s population, 26 percent of geographical area, 17 percent of global trade, and nearly 32 percent of world GDP based on purchasing power parity, holds a significant position in the international economy. Iran’s official membership in BRICS, as an emerging economic and geopolitical alliance, has the potential to exert meaningful and multidimensional effects on the country’s macroeconomic indicators. A review of previous studies shows that no independent research has yet been conducted on the implications of Iran’s accession to BRICS Plus. This study employs a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP, version 10) database to examine the impact of reciprocal tariff reductions between Iran and BRICS Plus members under gradual scenarios (10 to 100 percent). The analysis focuses on key variables such as GDP, household income, inflation, and overall welfare. The findings indicate that Iran’s integration into BRICS Plus and the reduction of trade tariffs can, while offsetting part of the losses caused by economic sanctions, lead to higher real GDP, improved household income, lower inflation, and enhanced welfare. Accordingly, it is recommended that policymakers, particularly in the industry and mining sectors, design short-term programs for trade liberalization with BRICS Plus members to take advantage of their industrial and technological capacities (especially those of China, India, and Russia). Such an approach could contribute to greater productivity in Iran’s industrial and mining sectors and foster growth in indicators such as exports, investment, employment, and value added.

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Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 15, Issue 57
May 2026
Pages 147-186

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