Dynamic Modeling of the Impact of Water and Energy Subsidy Reforms in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Water Transfer Project on Exports and Added Value of Iran’s Economic Sectors with an Environmental Sustainability Approach: Horizon 2046

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 PhD student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran (Corresponding Author).

3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.

Abstract

Given the increasing challenges of water scarcity in the central plateau and eastern regions of Iran, this research aims to dynamically model the impact of water and energy subsidy reforms in the Persian Gulf water transfer project on the export and added value of Iran’s economic sectors, with an environmental sustainability approach, up to the horizon of 2046. The research utilizes Vensim software to simulate three scenarios of water and electricity subsidy reforms. The results indicate that, in the short term, subsidy reforms lead to a decrease in added value in the agricultural, industrial, and mining sectors. However, in the medium and long terms, these changes can result in increased productivity, resource reallocation, and changes in the production structure, ultimately strengthening exports and improving Iran’s trade position. The 2046 vision document specifically addresses the sustainable development of water resources and optimal energy management, with one of the proposed solutions in the country’s development programs being the reform of water and energy subsidies to preserve natural resources and enhance productivity. This research emphasizes that the reform of water and energy pricing policies, along with environmental considerations and integrated resource management, is a prerequisite for achieving economic and commercial sustainability by 2046. Ultimately, the research shows that to achieve the country’s long-term development goals, subsidy reforms and optimal resource allocation must be carried out simultaneously, considering environmental dimensions, to manage the economic and commercial impacts of large-scale water transfer projects effectively.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

ایرانمنش، سعید؛ صالحی، نوراله؛ و جلایی، سید عبدالمجید، (1397). «بررسی اثر تحریم‌های خارجی بر تراز پرداخت‌های خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران: رویکرد سیستم‌های پویا». فصلنامه نظریه­های کاربردی اقتصاد، 8 (2): 106-75. https://doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2021.11417  
- تابش، علیرضا؛ ساعتی، محمد؛ صمدی، سحر؛ فرهادیان، محمد؛ و کیانی، غلامحسین، (1400). «ارزیابی اقتصادی پروژه ملی نمک‌زدایی و انتقال آب خلیج‌فارس به معادن جنوب شرق ایران با رویکرد تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه». نشریه سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی، 13 (25): 143–180. http:// doi.org/10.22034/epj.2021.14676.2110
- تیموری یگانه، مریم، (1401). «مروری بر طرح‏‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌‏ای در جهان و تأثیر آن بر عوامل محیط‏زیستی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی». فصلنامه آب و توسعه پایدار، 9 (2): 57–68.  https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v9i2.2202.1121
- حکمت‌نیا، محمد؛ صفدری، مجید؛ و حسینی، سید محمد، (1398). «برآورد و ارزیابی ردپای آب سبز، آبی و خاکستری در تجارت بین‌الملل محصولات کشاورزی ایران». نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران، 14 (2): 446–463. https://idj.iaid.ir/article_110733.html
- رضایی، رضا؛ تقی پور، حسن؛ و شاکر خطیبی، محمد، (1404). «مقایسه سناریوهای پرداخت یارانه انرژی از نظر پیامدهای بهداشتی و زیست محیطی: تأکید بر آلودگی هوا از طریق روش AHP». مجله تصویر سلامت، 16(2): 138-122. https://doi.org/10.34172/doh.2025.11
- صادقی، زین العابدین؛ حری، حمیدرضا؛ و صفی نتاج، مهلا، (1397). «مقایسه اقتصادی شیرین کردن آب خلیج فارس با استفاده از انرژی های نو و فسیلی». اقتصاد محیط زیست و منابع طبیعی، 2(2): 143-171. https://doi.org/10.22054/eenr.2016.8410
- عرب‌پور، ریحانه؛ جلائی اسفندآبادی، عبدالمجید؛ و نجاتی، مهدی، (۱۴۰۳). «بررسی و پیش‌بینی تأثیر قیمت‌گذاری آب بر تغییرات ساختاری در ایران با رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه پویا». فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی اقتصاد مقداری، 21 (3): ۳۰–۵۴. https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2022.38973.2434
- علیپور نصیرمحله، فرشاد؛ میرعباسی نجف آبادی، رسول؛ و ترابی حقیقی، علی، (1403). «بررسی چالش‌های طرح‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای». فصلنامه آب و توسعه پایدار، 11(3): 27-40. https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v11i3.2410-1375
- فدایی تهرانی، محمد رضا؛ و ابارشی، مریم، (۱۴۰۳). «ارزیابی فنی، اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی نمک‌زدایی در سه کشور پیشرو». نشریه علوم و مهندسی آب و فاضلاب، ۹(۱): ۷۱–۸۵. https://doi.org/10.22112/JWWSE.2023.394456.1362
- Alipour Nasirmahaleh, F., Mirabbasi Najafabadi, R. & Torabi Haghighi, A., (2024). “Investigating the Challenges of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects”. Water and Sustainable Development, 11(3): 27-40. https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v11i3.2410-1375 (In Persian).
- Arabpour, R., Jalaei Esfandabadi, A. & Nejati, M., (2024). “Investigating and Forecasting the Impact of Water Pricing on Structural Changes in Iran Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model”. Quantitative Economics Quarterly, 21(3): 30-54. https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2022.38973.2434(In Persian).
- Coulibaly, M., Lopez, J. C. & Smith, R., (2017). “Interbasin Water Transfers and the Size of Regions: An Economic Geography Model”. Journal of Urban Economics, 102: 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2016.11.003.
- Fadaei Tehrani, M. R. & Abarshi, M., (2024). “Technical, Economic and Environmental Assessment of Desalination in Three Leading Countries”. Journal of Water and Wastewater Science and Engineering, 9(1): 71-85. https://doi.org/10.22112/JWWSE.2023.394456.1362(In Persian).
- Hekmatnia, M., Safdari, M. & Hosseini, S. M., (2019). “Estimation and Assessment of Green, Blue and Grey Water Footprints in Iran’s International Trade of Agricultural Products”. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 14(2): 446-463. https://idj.iaid.ir/article_110733.html (In Persian).
- Iranmanesh, S., Salehi, N. & Jalaei, S. A., (2018). “Investigating the Effect of Foreign Sanctions on the Balance of Payments of the Islamic Republic of Iran: A System Dynamics Approach”. Applied Economic Theories, 8(2): 75-106. https://doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2021.11417 (In Persian).
- Jones, E., Qadir, M., van Vliet, M. T. H., Smakhtin, V. & Kang, S.-M., (2019). “The State of Desalination and Brine Production: A Global Outlook”. Science of the Total Environment, 657: 1343-1356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.07.
- Krugman, P., (1990). “Rethinking International Trade”. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/rethinking-international-trade.
- Liu, Y., Zhang, J., Wang, X. & et al., (2023). “Assessing Environmental, Economic, and Social Impacts of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects: A Case Study of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China”. Journal of Environmental Management, Article 116745. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.116745.
- Melo Galindo, V. R. M., (2025). “Short-Term Economic Effects of the São Francisco Interbasin Water Transfer Project in Brazil”. Journal of Development and Sustainability Studies, 10(2): 123-145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdsci.2025.02.002.
- Rezaei, R., Taghipour, H. & Shaker Khatibi, M., (2025). “Comparison of Energy Subsidy Payment Scenarios in Terms of Health and Environmental Consequences: Emphasis on Air Pollution Using the AHP Method”. Journal of Health in Disasters, 16(2): 122-138. https://doi.org/10.34172/doh.2025.11 (In Persian).
- Ricardo, D., (1817). “On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation”. London: John Murray. https://oll.libertyfund.org/title/ricardo-the-principles-of-political-economy-and-taxation.
- Sadeghi, Z., Hari, H. R. & Safi Nataj, M., (2017). “Economic Comparison of Persian Gulf Water Desalination Using Renewable and Fossil Energies”. Environmental Economics and Natural Resources, 2(2): 143-171. https://doi.org/10.22054/eenr.2016.8410 (In Persian).
- Sarrakh, R., Renukappa, S., Suresh, S. & Mushatat, S., (2020). “Impact of Subsidy Reform on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Economy and Carbon Emissions”. Energy Strategy Reviews, 28: Article 100465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.10046.
- Sterman, J. D., (2000). “Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World”. New York: McGraw-Hill. https://www.mit.edu/~jsterman/businessdynamics.html.
- Tabesh, A., Saati, M., Samadi, S., Farhadian, M. & Kiani, G. H., (2021). “Economic Evaluation of the National Persian Gulf Water Desalination and Transfer Project to the Mines of Southeast Iran Using a Computable General Equilibrium Approach”. Economic Policy Journal, 13(25): 143-180. https://doi.org/10.22034/epj.2021.14676.2110 (In Persian).
- Teymouri Yeganeh, M., (2022). “A Review of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects in the World and Their Environmental, Economic and Social Impacts”. Water and Sustainable Development, 9(2): 57-68. https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v9i2.2202.1121 (In Persian).
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), (2020). “Global Environment Outlook 6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People”. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme.
- Zhao, S., Wang, Y., Li, X. & Zhang, L., (2020). “System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Transboundary Water Resources Allocation in Xinjiang, China”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(23): 9091. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17239091
Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 15, Issue 57
May 2026
Pages 9-41

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics