Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author).
10.22084/aes.2026.31999.3863
Abstract
Livestock products are of particular importance due to their role in protein provision and value addition within the agricultural sector. Given the substantial share of red meat in household food expenditure, investigating the determinants of its price fluctuations can enhance decision-making within the product’s supply chain. This study examines the factors influencing red meat price fluctuations in Iran from 2017 to 2024, employing monthly data within a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework. The red meat price serves as the dependent variable, with independent variables including barley price, red meat supply, imported meat volume, urban and rural household income, chicken meat price (as a substitute), and the exchange rate. The results from impulse response functions indicate that red meat prices respond positively to shocks in price expectations and barley prices. While increased imports reduce prices in the short run, this effect reverses in the long run. Forecast error variance decomposition reveals that price expectations, the exchange rate, and imported meat account for 87.33%, 6.95%, and 2.02% of the red meat price variance, respectively. Since domestic prices are significantly influenced by expectations and input costs, policies targeting these variables are likely to be more effective than import-centric strategies. Given the importance of long-term stability, the application of supportive, monetary, and trade policies is recommended to mitigate short-run supply and import shocks while safeguarding domestic production capacity against long-term decline. Consequently, to improve public access to red meat, policy should prioritize enhancing domestic production, financed through savings from reduced import expenditures.
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