Investigating the Mechanism of Housing Price Transmission Among Iranian Metropolises

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Economic Affairs Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author)

3 M.A. in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculity of Social Sciences, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran.

10.22084/aes.2025.30988.3794

Abstract

This study examines the dynamics of housing price transmission among major Iranian metropolitan areas from September 2011 to August 2024. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model and network-based indicators, including the Total Connectedness Index (TCI), Net Total Directional Connectedness (NTDC), and Pairwise Connectedness Index (PCI), it analyzes as the structure, intensity, and direction of price transmission across regional markets.  Findings reveal a persistent core-periphery structure, with provinces such as Tehran, Alborz, Isfahan, and Fars acting as primary transmitters of price shocks, while Zahedan, Ilam, Bojnurd, and Zanjan remain chronic receivers. The TCI indicates heightened market connectedness during the 2018–2020 economic turmoil, followed by a decline as macroeconomic volatility subsided. The PCI suggests that bilateral linkages weaken during instability, polarizing the price transmission network. This study emphasizes the need for spatially-aware, network-informed housing policies. Uniform strategies ignoring regional transmission roles may exacerbate inequality and instability. Recommendations include developing a spatial policy map guided by TCI and NTDC and creating a national real-time housing price monitoring system. Additionally, stabilization efforts should focus on shock-transmitting regions, with financial intermediaries established in peripheral provinces.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 14, Issue 56
February 2026
Pages 45-84

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