In this study, we aim to investigate and forecast the consequences of exchange rate increase on major macroeconomic variables of Iran during 1976-2014. For this purpose, we used a short scale structural macro-econometric model which has been estimated by the new co-integration approach. The results show that the negative effects of a graduate increase in exchange rate is less than the same effects in a sudden increase in exchange rate. In the first scenario (sudden increase in exchange rate), inflation rate, economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %21.6, %4.7 and %8.6 respectively in the first year after shock. In the second Scenario (graduate increase in exchange rate), inflation rate, economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %17.2, %4.99 and %7.4 respectively in the first year after shock.
GHAFARI,H , CHANGI ASHTIYANI,A and JALOLI,M . (2014). Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2(8), 91-113.
MLA
GHAFARI,H , , CHANGI ASHTIYANI,A , and JALOLI,M . "Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014)", Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2, 8, 2014, 91-113.
HARVARD
GHAFARI H, CHANGI ASHTIYANI A, JALOLI M. (2014). 'Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014)', Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2(8), pp. 91-113.
CHICAGO
H GHAFARI, A CHANGI ASHTIYANI and M JALOLI, "Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014)," Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2 8 (2014): 91-113,
VANCOUVER
GHAFARI H, CHANGI ASHTIYANI A, JALOLI M. Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran. 2014;2(8):91-113 (In Persian).
