In this study, we aim to investigate and forecast the consequences of exchange rate increase on major macroeconomic variables of Iran during 1976-2014. For this purpose, we used a short scale structural macro-econometric model which has been estimated by the new co-integration approach. The results show that the negative effects of a graduate increase in exchange rate is less than the same effects in a sudden increase in exchange rate. In the first scenario (sudden increase in exchange rate), inflation rate, economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %21.6, %4.7 and %8.6 respectively in the first year after shock. In the second Scenario (graduate increase in exchange rate), inflation rate, economic growth rate and unemployment rate will reach to %17.2, %4.99 and %7.4 respectively in the first year after shock.
GHAFARI, H., CHANGI ASHTIYANI, A., & JALOLI, M. (2014). Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2(8), 91-113.
MLA
HADI GHAFARI; ALI CHANGI ASHTIYANI; MAHDI JALOLI. "Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014)". Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2, 8, 2014, 91-113.
HARVARD
GHAFARI, H., CHANGI ASHTIYANI, A., JALOLI, M. (2014). 'Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014)', Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2(8), pp. 91-113.
VANCOUVER
GHAFARI, H., CHANGI ASHTIYANI, A., JALOLI, M. Investigation and Forecasting of the Effects of Exchange Rate Increase on Major Macroeconomic Variables of Iran (1976-2014). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2014; 2(8): 91-113.
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