Shadow Price of Water and Agricultural Competitiveness: An Empirical Study for Iran’s Selected Agricultural Products Using System Dynamics

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 University of Mazandaran, Department of Energy Economics

2 University of Mazandaran

3 Shahrood University of Technology

10.22084/aes.2024.29672.3709

Abstract

The agriculture sector, as a key sector in the national economy, plays an important role in food security and economic development. Iran has a special position in the production of agricultural products with its climatic diversity and unique features, but due to dry and semi-arid weather conditions and scattered rainfall, it faces the problem of water scarcity. This issue has caused the inconsistency between water scarcity and agricultural competitiveness. The main purpose of the present research is to answer the question whether the shadow price of water is effective on the competitiveness of the agricultural sector. For this purpose and in the first stage, using the production function approach, the shadow price of selected Iranian agricultural products (including wheat, rice, potato and corn in selected provinces) was estimated during the period of 2001-2018 (based on the latest available data) and then in the next step, the research question was answered with the approach of system dynamics. The results of the simulation and sensitivity analysis of the model show that by applying the shadow price and increasing the price of water, the demand for water consumption in the agricultural sector is reduced, and with the negative effect on the product performance, the competitiveness of the selected agricultural products is reduced. Based on this and considering the strategic importance of the agricultural sector, water pricing should be done with special sensitivity, but technological and soft measures to save and increase water productivity in the agricultural sector and to improve the optimal cultivation pattern as well as the foreign trade pattern are essential.

Keywords

Main Subjects