Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1
Ph.D Studen In Economict, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2
.Professor, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3
Professor, Faculty of Economic and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
4
Assistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University
10.22084/aes.2024.29432.3696
Abstract
In recent decades, inflation has become one of the most important issues in Iran's economy, and the question arises as to what factor has caused prices to continue to be high. The current research has examined the issue of the unproductive sector of the economy and the currency crisis and their effect on inflation in the period of 1991-2022. In this regard, the PCA econometric method has been used to combine the variables, the Hodrick-Prescott filter to identify the currency crisis, and the ARDL method to estimate the research models. According to the results; The share of the underground economy in the GDP has a positive effect on inflation, and with an increase of one percent, inflation increases by 0.25 units. Also, the coefficient related to the variable of speculation is estimated to be large and more than 14 Therefore, speculation is one of the key factors in creating inflation in Iran. The currency crisis variable has the greatest effect compared to other variables and its coefficient of 17.63 proves that it is one of the most effective factors of inflation in Iran. Liquidity, on the one hand, causes an increase in asset prices, and on the other hand, its growth leads to the growth of inflation, so this result is in accordance with the opinion of those who claim that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Since the agents of the unproductive sector and the currency crisis in Iran have the biggest role in creating inflation, it is suggested that the country's managers limit informal activities and prevent the creation of a currency crisis by presenting policy packages to reduce inflation.
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