Application of Artificial Intelligence in Predicting GDP and Unemployment Rate, and Their Mutual Impact on The Economy of Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 M. A. in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

Abstract

The unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are among the most important economic indicators that understanding their current and future trends can help policymakers and decision-makers adopt appropriate solutions to prevent crises and improve the country’s economic situation. Accurate prediction of these two indicators can be useful in future planning and improving the country’s economy and people’s livelihoods. In recent years, artificial intelligence techniques and tools, given their many capabilities, can play a very important role in predicting important economic indicators. Therefore, given the high importance of the two indicators of unemployment rate and GDP on the economy of our country Iran, this article intends to first predict these two indicators separately and then predict the rate of GDP growth based on the unemployment rate using artificial intelligence techniques. For this purpose, in this research, seasonal data related to GDP and its components and the unemployment rate for the years 1976-2022 have been used. Also, machine learning models based on regression have been used for prediction. The results show that the predictions of the mentioned models have an appropriate accuracy in terms of evaluation criteria such as root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, which indicates.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 12, Issue 48
January 2024
Pages 107-132

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