The Relationship Between the Informal Economy and the Velocity of Money in Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Humanities, Bozorgmehr University of Qaenat, Qaen, Iran.

Abstract

The informal economy affects various economic sector, including the monetary sector. The velocity of money is one of the important monetary variables that have important effects on the results of monetary policies. In this study, the effect of the size of the informal economy on the velocity of money in Iran has been investigated using annual data during the period of 1990-2018. Using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the relationship between the variables has been investigated. The results of the research model show that the larger the size of the informal economy, the faster the velocity of money, which indicates the positive effect of the money demand channel in the shadow economy on the velocity of money. Additionally, other explanatory variables including inflation rate, economic growth, and bank lending also show a positive effect on the velocity of money. Moreover, the results show that changes in the informal economy can lead to asymmetric changes in the velocity of money. Therefore, the activities of the informal economy affect the velocity of money, the money market, and the performance of monetary policies in Iran. It is crucial for policy makers to consider the role of informal and shadow economy activities in assessing the consequences of economic policies. Based on the research fundings, measures including inflation control, limiting informal economy activities, and increasing bank credits should be taken into account in order to control the velocity of money. Given the positive relationship between the velocity of money and the informal economy, it can be said that any policy that limits the shadow economy reduces the velocity of money and affects the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Keywords

Main Subjects


- امیدی‌پور، رضا؛ پژویان، جمشید؛ محمدی، تیمور؛ معمارنژاد، عباس؛ (1394). «برآورد حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی و فرار مالیاتی: تحلیل تجربی در ایران». پژوهشنامه مالیات، 23(28): 69-94.
- آشنا، ملیحه، لعل خضری، حمید. (1400). «همبستگی پویای نوسان نرخ ارز، صادرات و واردات با نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی جهانی (کاربرد الگوی M-GARRCH.  رهیافت DCC)». فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 10(37): 135-167. Doi: 10.22084/AES.2021.22895.3184
- بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران. (1383-1398). گزیده آمارهای اقتصادی. ،https://cbi.ir/simplelist/LatestEconomicData_fa.aspx
- پیرایی, خسرو؛ و رجایی، حسینعلی. (1394). «اندازه‌گیری اقتصاد زیرزمینی در ایران و بررسی علل و آثار آن». سیاست‌های راهبردی و کلان، 3(9): 21-42.
- تقی‌نژادعمران، وحید؛ و نیک‌پور، معصومه. (1392). «اقتصاد زیرزمینی و علت های آن: مطالعه موردی ایران». مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 2(8): 53-72.
- زراء‌نژاد، منصور؛ زارع، محمدمهدی؛ و اکابری، مهدی، (1390). «تخمین تابع سرعت گردش پول در اقتصاد ایران». علمی پژوهشی اقتصاد مقداری، 8(1): 123-145.
- صامتی، مجید؛ سامتی، مرتضی؛ و دلائی‌میلان، علی، (1397). «برآورد اقتصاد زیرزمینی در ایران (84-1344): به روش MIMIC». مطالعات اقتصاد بین الملل، 35(2): 89-114.
- صمصامی، حسین؛ و نخودبریز، نوشین، (1397). «اثر ابزارهای پرداخت الکترونیک بر تورم و سرعت گردش پول». اقتصاد مالی، 12(45): 193-212.
- عبداله‌میلانی، مهنوش؛ و اکبرپورروشن، نرگس، (1391). «فرار مالیاتی ناشی از اقتصاد غیررسمی در ایران». پژوهشنامه مالیات. 13(20): 141-168.
- عرب‌مازاریزدی، علی، (1380). «اقتصاد سیاه در ایران؛ اندازه، علل و آثار آن در سه دهه اخیر». برنامه و بودجه، 6 (2 و 3): 3-60.
- فطرس، محمدحسن؛ و دلایی‌میلان، علی، (1392). «عوامل مؤثر بر اقتصاد زیرزمینی در ایران، 1342-1391». اقتصاد مقداری، 10(4): 91-111.
- فطرس، محمدحسن؛ و دلایی‌میلان، علی، (1395). «بررسی اقتصاد زیرزمینی و فرار مالیاتی در چارچوب مدل‌های تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی(DSGE)». پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعۀ اقتصادی، 7(25): 65-84.
- کاربر، رضا؛ کریمی‌تکانلو، زهرا؛ و رستم‌زاده، پرویز، (1398). «برآورد حجم اقتصاد زیرزمینی در استان‌های ایران و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن». نظریه‌های کاربردی اقتصاد، 2(6): 161-188.
- کریمی، محمدشریف؛ دل‌انگیزان، سهراب؛ و حیدریان‌محمدآبادی، راضیه، (1397). «تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر اقتصاد زیرزمینی در ایران در دوره‌ی 1389- 1355 (روش تصحیح خطای برداری)». تحقیقات اقتصادی، 53(2): 367-386.
- مطلبی، معصومه؛ علیزاده، محمد؛ و فرجی‌دیزجی، سجاد، (1398). «برآورد اقتصاد سایه و فرار مالیاتی با‌استفاده‌از متغیرهای انضباط مالی دولت». اقتصاد مقداری، (4)16: 69-100
- نجفیان، سمیه؛ فطرس، محمدحسن، و حاجی، غلامعلی، (1401). «تجزیه و تحلیل اثرات اقتصاد سایه‌ای بر درآمد سرانه در منتخبی از کشورهای درحال توسعه و توسعه‌یافته». بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران، 9(2): 331-363.
 
- Abdollahmilani, M. & Akbarpourroshan, N., (2012). “Tax Evasion from the Underground Economy in Iran”. Journal of Tax Research, 20 (13): 141-168. (In Persian).
- Arabmazar Yazdi, A., (2001). “Shadow economy in Iran, its size, causes and effects in the last three decades”. Planning and Budgeting, 6(2, 3): 3-60. (In Persian)
- Ardakani, O. M., (2023). “The dynamics of money velocity”. Applied Economics Letters, 30: 13, 1814-1822, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2083062
- Ariyo, A. & Bekoe, W., (2011). “Currency Demand, the Underground Economy and Tax Evasion: The Case of Nigeria”. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 11(2): 130-157.
- Ashena, M. & Laalkhezri, H., (2021). “Dynamic Correlation of Exchange Rate, Export and Import Volatility with The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (Application of M-GARRCH and DCC Approach)”. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 10(37): 135-167. (In Persian). doi: 10.22084/aes.2021.22895.3184
- Benk, S.; Gillman, M. & Kejak, M., (2008). “Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(6): 1281-1293.
- Bordo, M. D.; Jonung, L. & Siklos, P., (1997). “Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence”. Economic Inquiry, 35(4): 710-724.
- Breusch, T., (2005). “Australia’s Cash Economy are the Estimates Credible?” Economic Record, 81: 394–403. doi:10.1111/j.1475-4932.2005.00277.x.
- Cagan, P., (1958). “The Demand for Currency Relative to Total Money Supply”. National Bureau of Economic Research, Occasional Paper, 62 (New York).
- Eilat, Y. & Zinnes, C., (2000). “The evolution of the shadow economy in transition countries: consequences for economic growth and donor assistance. Harvard Institute for International Development”. CAER II Discussion Paper, 83: 1-70.
- Elbahnasawy, N. G., (2021). “Can e-government limit the scope of the informal economy?”. World Development, Elsevier, 139(C): 105341.
- Elgin, C. & Iyidost, E., (2021). “Velocity of money and shadow economy”. Applied Economics Letters, DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1961117.
- Elgin, C. & Öztunalı. O., (2012). “Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates”. Bogazici University Department of Economics Working Papers, 5: 1–48.
- Elgin, C.; Kose, A.; Ohnsorge, F. & Yu, S., (2019). “Shaded of Gray: Measuring the Informal Economy and Its Business Cycles”. World Bank, mimeo.
- Faal, E., (2003). “Currency Demand, the Underground Economy, and Tax Evasion: The Case of Guyana”. IMF Working Paper, Western Hemisphere Department, January
- Faig, M. & Jerez, B., (2005). “Precautionary Balance and the Velocity of Circulation of Money”. University of Toronto, Department of Economics. Working papers. Series data maintained by RePEc Maintainer.
- Feige, E. L., (1979). “How Big Is the Irregular Economy?”. Challenge, 22 (1): 5–13. doi:10.1080/05775132.1979.11470559.
Feige, E. L., (1990). “Defining and Estimating the Underground and Informal Economies: The New Institutional Economies Approach”. World Development, 18(7): 989-1002.
- Fotros, M. H. & Dalaei Milan, A., (2016). “Examination of Underground Economy and Tax Evasion within the Framework of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGE)”. Economic Growth and Development Research7(25): 65-84. (In Persian)
- Fotros, M. H. & Dalaei Milan, A., (2014). “Effective factors on Iranian Underground Economy1963-2012”. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 10(4): 91-111. (In Persian). doi: 10.22055/jqe.2014.11625
- Frey, B. S. & Weck-Hanneman, H., (1984). “The hidden economy as an unobservable variable”. European Economic Review, 26: 33-53.
- Friedman, M., (1988). “Money and the Stock Market”. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2): 221–245. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1833107
- Giles, D. E. A., (1998). “The Underground Economy: Minimizing the Size of Government”. Department Discussion Papers 9801, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
- Giles, D. E.; Tedds, L. M. & Werkneh, G., (2002). “The Canadian Underground and Measured Economies: Granger Causality Results”. Applied Economics, 34: 2347-2352.
- Ihrig, J. & Moe, K. S., )2004(. “Lurking in the shadows: the informal sector and government policy”. Journal of Development Economics, 73(2): 541-557.
- Karbor, R.; Karimi Takanlou, Z. & Rostamzadeh, P., (2019). “Estimation of Underground Economy in Iran's Provinces and Effective Factors”. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 6(2): 161-188. (In Persian)
- Karimi, M.; Delangizan, S. & Heidarian, R., (2018). “Determinants of the Factors Effecting Underground Economy in Iran (1976-2010): A Vector Error Correction Model”. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 53(2): 367-386. (In Persian). doi: 10.22059/jte.2017.221471.1007406
- Kholodilin, K. A. & Thiessen, U., (2011). “The Shadow Economy in OECD Countries: Panel-Data Evidence”. Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1122, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Kim, H. & Subramanian, C., (2009). “Velocity of money and inflation dynamics”. Applied Economics Letters, 16: 18, 1777-1781, DOI: 10.1080/13504850701719652
- Loayza, N., (2016). “Informality in the Process of Development and Growth”. The World Economy, 39 (12): 1856-916
- Medina, L. & Schneider, F., (2017). “Shadow Economies Around the World: New Results for 143 Countries Over 1996-2014”. Discussion Paper, Department of Economics, University of Linz, Linz, Austria.
- Mendizábal, H. R., (2006). “The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38(1): 209–228. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3839075
- Motallebi, M.; Alizadeh, M. & Faraji Dizaji, S., (2020). “Estimating Shadow Economy and Tax Evasion using Governmental Financial Discipline Variables”. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 16(4): 69-100. (In Persian). doi: 10.22055/jqe.2019.26886.1926
- Najafian, S.; Fotros, M. H. & Haji, G., (2022). “Analysis of the effects of the shadow economy on the per capita income of selected developing and developed countries”. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 9(2): 331-363. (In Persian). doi: 10.30465/ce.2022.40670.1767
- Omer, M., (2014). Velocity of Money Functions in Pakistan and Lessons for Monetary Policy Velocity of Money Functions in Pakistan and Lessons for Monetary Policy. SBP Research Bulletin.
- Omidipour, R.; Pajooyan, J.; Mohamadi, T. & Memarnezhad, A., (2016). “Estimating the size of the underground economy and tax evasion: an empirical analysis in Iran”. Journal of Tax Research, 23(28): 69-94. (In Persian)
- Onnis, L. & Tirelli, P., (2015). “Shadow economy: does it matter for money velocity?”. Empirical Economics, 49 (3): 839-858. ISSN 0377-7332.
- Orviská, M.; Čaplánová, A.; Medved, J. & Hudson, J., (2006). “A Cross Section Approach to Measuring the Shadow Economy”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(7): 713-724.
- Owoye, O., (1997). “Income Velocity and the Variability of Money Growth: Evidence from Less Developed Countries”. Applied Economics, 29: 485- 496.
- Pesaran, M. H.; Shin, Y. & Smith R. J., (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (1): 289-326.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., (1998). “An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 31: 371-413.
- Piraee, K. & Rajaee, H., (2015). “Estimate Size of Underground Economy in Iran and Investigation Causes and Effects”. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies, 3(3: 9): 21-42. (In Persian)
- Prasetyo, A. S., (2018). “Determinants of Demand for Money and The Velocity of Money in Indonesia”. JDE (Journal of Developing Economies), 3(2): 65–79. https://doi.org/10.20473/jde.v3i2.10464
- Rami, G., (2010). “Velocity of Money Function for India: Analysis and Interpretations”. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1(1): 15–26. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1783473.
- Roy, J.; Rochaida, E.; Suharto, R. B. & Rizkiawan, R., (2021). “Digital and electronic transactions against velocity of money”. Corporate Governance and Organizational Behavior Review, 5(2): 145–155. https://doi.org/10.22495/cgobrv5i2sip3
- Sameti, M.; Sameti, M. & Dalali Milan, A., (2010). “Estimating the Underground Economy in Iran (1965-2005): A MIMIC Approach”. International Economics Studies, 35(2): 89-114. doi: 10.22108/ies.2023.15520 (In Persian).
- Samsami, H. & Nokhodbriz, N., (2019). “The effect of electronic payment tools on inflation and speed of money circulation”. Financial Economics, 12(45): 193-212. (In Persian)
- Schneider, F., (2008). “Shadow Economy. In: Readings in Public Choice and Constitutional Political Economy”. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75870-1_28
- Schneider, F. & Buehn, A., (2017). “Estimating a Shadow Economy: Results, Methods, Problems, and Open Questions”. Open Economics, 1: 1-29. 
- Schneider, F.; Buehn, A. & Montenegro, C. E., (2010). “Shadow Economies All over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007”. Policy Research
Working Paper
5356, World Bank, Washington, DC.
- Schneider, F. & Enste, D., (2000). “Shadow Economies: Sizes, Causes and Consequences”. Journal of Economic Literature, 38 (1): 77-114.
- Shin, Y.; Yu, B. & Greenwood-Nimmo, M., (2014). “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework”. In: Sickles, R., Horrace, W. (eds) Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
- Taghineghad, V. & Nikpoor, M., (2014). “Underground Economy and its causes: a Case Study of Iran”. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 2(8): 53-72. (In Persian)
- Tanzi, V., (1980). “The underground economy in the United States: Estimate and implications”. Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro, 135/4: 427-453
- The Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (2002-2019). Economic Statistics. https://cbi.ir/simplelist/LatestEconomicData_fa.aspx
- World Bank. (2021). Informal Economy Database. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/informal-economy-database.
- World Bank. (2019). Global Economic Prospects, World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31655.
- Zarra-Nezhad, M.; Zarea, M. M. & Akaberi, M., (2011). “Estimation of Velocity of Money and Liquidity in Iran’s Economy”. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 8(1): 123-145. doi: 10.22055/jqe.2011.10632 (In Persian).