Evaluation of Projection bias in People’s Beliefs and Intentions Under the Influence of Temperature Changes (With Behavioral Economics Approach)

Document Type : Research Article


1 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran

2 M. A. in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran


The purpose of the present study is to evaluate projection bias in people’s beliefs and behavioral intentions under the influence of temperature changes. For the aforementioned evaluation using of a simple binary distinction under two temperature 22 C^0and 38 C^0, projection bias in  people’s beliefs and behavioral intentions about water and electricity consumption-reducing devices has been investigated. The statistical population of this study consisted of 203 Ilam residents. The ordered probit regression analysis revealed that projection bias is evident in people’s beliefs (importance level) and behavioral intentions (willingness to purchase) concerning water and electricity consumption-reducing devices in hot weather (38°C) compared to cool weather (22°C). Regarding both categories of saving water and electricity consumption, in hot weather compared to cool weather, the level of people’s belief about devices that reduce water and electricity consumption is more than their willingness to purchase. In addition, the results showed that there is the positive and significant relationship between belief in water consumption reducing devices and the level of education as well as between the willingness to purchase of water consumption reducing devices and financial situation. Nevertheless, no significant relationship between people’s beliefs and intentions as dependent variables and age, gender, residence status and residence dimensions as independent variables were found. The results of the present study could be used by the activists of the goods and services market as well as environmental activists. It also requires the attention of the government to support eco-friendly products by setting incentives for people and to encourage people to use these products.


Main Subjects

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