The Evaluation of the Free Trade Zones Effects on Provincial Value-Added Using the Synthetic  Control Method

Miry, Ayoub; Isazadeh, Saeed

doi:10.22084/aes.2022.26821.3510

The Evaluation of the Free Trade Zones Effects on Provincial Value-Added Using the Synthetic Control Method

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Ayoub Miry ¹
Saeed Isazadeh ²

¹ Ph.D. student in Economic Sciences, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.

² Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran

10.22084/aes.2022.26821.3510

Abstract

In this study, due to the contradictory statements and the lack of studies on quantifying the effects of creating free zones on economic variables, the impact of this policy on the total economic value added in the provinces of West, East, Khuzestan and Gilan using the synthetic control method (SCM) has been examined. According to the results, the establishment of the Arvand Free Zone initially had a net positive effect. Then, from 1394, the net effect of policy become negative. Finally, the impact of policy on average in the whole period, has been about 8% of province value added. For Anzali Free Zone, according to the results, the average impact of policy is about 14%. After the enlargement of Anzali region in 1392, the impact of this policy increases to 30% per year. For Aras and Mako Free Zones, the impact of politics has been negative. The average effect of the policy for East Azerbaijan is (-4.5) percent and for West Azerbaijan is about (-4.7) percent per year.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Economic

References

- التجائی، ابراهیم، (1388). «مناطق آزاد تجاری و صنعتی: ابزار راهبرد توسعه صادرات در مقایسه با سه کشور دیگر آسیایی». پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 33.

- اتاق بازرگانی صنایع، کشاورزی و معادن ایران، (1395). مناطق آزاد تجاری و ویژۀ اقتصادی بسترها و الزامات، چالشها و راهکارها، بررسی مسائل اقتصادی روز ایران، آبان 1395.

- دل‌انگیزان، سهراب؛ و بهزادی‌فر، مریم، (1392). «آثار شوکهای آزادسازی تجاری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران و ارزیابی تقارن و عدم تقارن آن‌ها (موردکاوی ایران: 1355 تا 1390)». مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 2(8): 181-204.

- کشاورزحداد، غلامرضا، (1390). اقتصاد سنجی دادههای خرد و ارزیابی سیاست. تهران: نشر نی.

سازمان امور مالیاتی، (1395). «مشوقهای مالیاتی و عملکرد مناطق آزاد در ایران». طرح پژوهشی: معاونت پژوهش، برنامه ریزی و اموربین الملل، http://taxresearch.ir/rdsm_project_list.php?slc_lang=fa&sid=1

- سازمان برنامه و بودجه کشور (1396). گزارش عملکرد قانون برنامه پنجم توسعه اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در سال 1395. جلد اول: حوزۀ فرابخشی. https://www.mporg.ir/Portal/View/Page.aspx?PageId=1cd8157d-1bef-4f17-a3a6-ecaabb953f33

- لیست، فردریک، (1380). خطوط کلی نظام آمریکایی اقتصاد سیاسی. مترجم: ناصر معتمدی، تهران: انتشارات شرکت سهامی انتشار، چاپ اول

- فصیحی، حبیب الله، (1395). «بررسی تطبیقی نقش و تأثیر مناطق آزاد در ایران جهان». دو ماهنامۀ اقتصاد پنهان، 1(1).

- صولتی، حسن، (1400). «بررسی نقش مناطق ویژۀ اقتصادی در میزان اشتغال‌زائی و سطح رفاه». مدیریت تبلیغات و فروش، 2(2): 70-81. (DOI: 10.52547/jabm.2.2.70).

- مدرسه حکمرانی شهید بهشتی، (1398). جذب سرمایهگذار در مناطق آزاد تجاری صنعتی، https://wikifreezones.com/

- محمدفرد، حسام؛ و پناهی، سامان، ( 1400). تحلیل و بررسی عملکرد اقتصادی مناطق آزاد تجاری صنعتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران. تهران: مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس.

- مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس (1396). «اظهارنظر رسمی کارشناسی در لایحه ایجاد هفت منطقۀ آزاد تجاری- صنعتی و دوازده منطقه ویژۀ اقتصادی». چالش‌های ناشی از وسعت محدوده‌های مناطق آزاد و بررسی اجمالی نقشه‌های پیوست لایحه https://rc.majlis.ir/fa.

- مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس، (1387). «پیرامون لایحه اصلاح قانون مناطق آزاد». دلایل عدم موفقیت مناطق آزاد ایران.

- مرزبان؛ حسین؛ و نجاتی، مهدی، (1391). «ارزیابی اثر ناشی از سرریز سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بخش صنعت، بر اقتصاد ایران با استفاده از یک مدل تعادل عمومی». مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 1(4): 151-180.

- Abadie, A.; Diamond, A. & Hainmueller, J., (2010). “Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105 (490): 493-505. doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746

- Abadie, A. & Gardeazabal, J., (2003). “The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country”. American Economic Review, 93 (1): 113-132. DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455188

Top of Form

- Aggarwal, A., (2007). “Impact of Special Economic Zones on Employment, Poverty, and Human Development”. Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Working Paper, No. 194. Available from <http://www.democraciaycooperacion.net/IMG/pdf/1 working_paper_194.pdf.> [28 April 2014].

- Altejai, I., (2008). “Commercial and Industrial Free Zones: A Tool for Export Development Strategy in Comparison with Three Other Asian Countries”. Economic Research Journal, 33. (In Persian).

- Baissac, C.), 2011(.” Brief history of SEZs and overview of policy debates”. In: Farole, T. Special Economic Zones in Africa: Comparing Performance and Learning from Global Experience. Washington, DC: World Bank.https://doi.org/10.1596/9780821386385_CH02

- Brussevich, M., (2020). The Socio-economic Impact of Special Economic Zones: Evidence from Cambodia. IMF Working Paper.

- Chamber of Commerce of Industries, Agriculture and Mines of Iran, (2015). Free trade zones and special economic bases and requirements, challenges and solutions (Bulletin for the review of Iran's current economic issues). November 2015. (In Persian).

- Delnagyzan, S. & Behzadifar, M., (2012). “Effects of trade liberalization shocks on Iran's economic growth and evaluation of their symmetry and asymmetry (case study of Iran: 1355 to 1390)”. Iranian Applied Economic Studies Quarterly, 2(8): 181-204. (DOR: 20.1001.1.23222530.1392.2.8.11.4). (In Persian).

- Dobronogov, A. & Farole, T., )2015). An Economic Integration Zone for the East African Community: Exploiting regional potential and addressing commitment challenges. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5967.

- Fashihi, H., (2015). “A comparative study of the role and impact of free zones in Iran and the world”. Hidden Economy Quarterly, 1(1): 47-71. (In Persian).

- Farole, T., (2011). Special Economic Zones in Africa: Comparing Performance and Learning from Global Experience. World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, No. 2268, December.

- Farole, T. & Winkler, D., (2014). Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for
Sub-Saharan Africa: Local Spillovers and Competitiveness in Global Value
Chains. Directions in Development, Trade. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0126-6

- Keshavarz Haddad, G., (2010). Econometrics of micro data and policy evaluation. Tehran: Ney Publishing (In Persian).

- List, F., (2000). Outlines of the American System of Political Economy. translator: Nasser Motamadi, Tehran: Publishing Company, First Edition. (In Persian).

- Mohammadfard, H. & Panahi, S., (2020). Analysis and review of the economic performance of industrial free trade zones of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran: Majlis Research Center. https://rc.majlis.ir/fa/report/show/1654992(In Persian).

- Moberg, L., (2014).” The Political Economy of Special Economic Zones”. Forthcoming in The Journal of Institutional Economics http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2297871

- Moberg, M. & Blair, W., (2018). The Political Economy of Special Economic Zones: Lessons for the United States. 21 CHAP. L. REV. 407.

- Marzban, H. & Nejati, M., (2013). “Evaluating the effect of foreign direct investment spillover in the industrial sector on Iran's economy using a general equilibrium model”. Iranian Applied Economic Studies Quarterly, 1(4): 151-180 (DOR: 20.1001.1.23222530.1391.1.4.6.4) (In Persian).

- Parliman Research Center, (2016). “Official expert opinion on the bill to create seven commercial-industrial free zones and twelve special economic zones”. Challenges arising from the scope of the free zones and a brief review of the attached maps of the bill. https://rc.majlis.ir/fa. (In Persian).

- Triyakshana, S., (2011). “The Political Economy of Special Economic Zones in India”. Thesis for P.H.D of economy George Mason University.

- Solati, H., (2020). “Examining the role of special economic zones in the level of employment and welfare”. Advertising and Sales Management, 2(2): 70-81 (DOI: 10.52547/jabm.2.2.70). (In Persian).

- Shahid Beheshti Governance School, (2018). Attracting investors in commercial and industrial free zones, https://wikifreezones.com/.(In Persian).

- Tax Affairs Organization, (2015). “Tax incentives and the performance of free zones in Iran”. Research project: Vice President of Research, Planning and International Affairs, http://taxresearch.ir/rdsm_project_list.php?. (In Persian).

- Planning and Budget Organization, (2016). “Report on the implementation of the law of the fifth program of economic”. Social and cultural development of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2016, first volume: trans-sectoral area. https://www.mporg.ir/Portal/View/Page.aspx?PageId=1cd8157d-1bef-4f17-a3a6-ecaabb953f33. (In Persian).

- Unido, )2009(. “Industrial Development Report 2009: Breaking in and moving up – new industrial challenges for the bottom billion and the middle income countries”. Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization.

- Warr, P. G., (1989). “Export Processing Zones: The Economics of Enclave Manufacturing”. The World Bank Research Observer, 4(1): 65-88. https://doi.org/10.1093/wbro/4.1.65

- World Bank, Competitive Industries and Innovation Program (2017). Special Economic Zones an Operational Review of Their Impacts. Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 1W-Enhancing Wbg Support for Sezs -- P154708

- https://www.freezones.ir/

- https://www.arasfz.ir/intro

- https://www.arvandfreezone.com/

- https://www:anzalifz.ir/