Investigating the Impact of Operational Risk on Economic Growth in Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 M.A. in Economics, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

Abstract

Economic growth is one of the headmost aims of developing and developed countries. Increasing economic growth can increase public welfare, reduce poverty and reduce unemployment. Recognizing the factors affecting economic growth is essential and undeniable, but distinguishing the obstacles to economic growth can be far headmost and effective. Risks are among the most influential and vital factors affecting economic growth. Economic and non-economic risks are consequential obstacles to economic growth. Iran is constantly exposed to various risks due to its geopolitical situation in one of the turbulent regions of the world, the Middle East. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of operational risk on economic growth in Iran during 2014Q1 – 2021Q4 using the time-varying parameter vector auto-regressions (TVP-VAR). This research uses operational risk for the first time, with four main sub-indices: i.e., labor market risk, trade and investment risk, logistics risk, and security-crime risk. The results of this research show that the improvement in operational risk and its sub-indices has a positive effect on economic growth in Iran. Furthermore, international sanctions have an immense impact on operational risk and, consequently, have a negative impact on economic growth. Nevertheless, policymakers are suggested to reduce Iran’s international tensions, concretely, the countries that have an extensive impact on the world’s economy to improve the operational risk, increase foreign investments, improve the business environment, reduce the cost of trade and business transactions, and, as a result, provide the country’s economic growth and development.

Keywords

Main Subjects


- اسدی، زهره؛ و یاوری، کاظم، (1400). «اثر تحریم‌ها بر ناپایداری مالی بانک‌های ایران».  اقتصاد مقداری، 18(4): 1-35. (10.22055/jqe.2020.30490.2131).
- امیری، فرهاد؛ درخشانی درآبی، کاوه؛ و آسایش، حمید، (1400). «بررسی آثار نوسانات نرخ ارز بر ارزش‌افزوده در زیربخش‌های اقتصاد ایران».  مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 10(39): 247-267. (10.22084/aes.2021.23324.3224).
- تهرانی، رضا؛ سراج، مصطفی؛ فروش باستانی، علی؛ و فلاح‌پور، سعید، (1399). «ارزیابی اثر ریسک سیستمی بخش بانکی بر عملکرد اقتصاد کلان ایران». تحقیقات مالی، 22(3): 297-319. (10.22059/frj.2019.276790.1006830).
- حسینی، سیدمهدی؛ و فهیمی‌فر، فاطمه، (1389). «نقش توسعه نظام مالی و بهبود فضای بر رشد اقتصادی». مجموعه مقالات چهارمین کنفرانس توسعه نظام تأمین مالی در ایران: 670-687.
- حیدری‌هراتمه، مصطفی، (1401). «بررسی تأثیر فساد بر سرمایه‌گذاری و رشد اقتصادی». مطالعات الگوی پیشرفت اسلامی ایرانی، 10(2).
- رضاقلی‌زاده، مهدیه؛ و رجب‌پور، حسنی، (1400). «استرس مالی، ریسک سیاسی و رشد اقتصادی: شواهدی جدید از ایران».  پژوهش‌های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، 12(45): 59-74. (10.30473/egdr.2020.53225.5837).
- رهبر، فرهاد؛ مظفری‌خامنه، فرشید؛ و محمدی، شاپور، (1386). «موانع سرمایه گذاری و تأثیر آن بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران». تحقیقات اقتصادی، 81: 138- 145.
- زارع، محمدحسن؛ انصاری سامانی، حبیب؛ سیمین، نامداری؛ و محمودی، زهرا، (1400). «تأثیر ریسک اقتصادی، سیاسی و مالی بر فرار سرمایه: رهیافت پنل پویا». اقتصاد و تجارت نوین، 16(1): 95-127. (10.30465/jnet.2021.7104).
- سجادیه خواجوئی، فرزام؛ بختیاری، صادق؛ و قبادی، سارا، (1400). «ارزیابی اثر ریسک کشوری بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای منتخب عضو سازمان همکاری اسلامی». برنامه­ریزی و بودجه، 26(3): 101-130.  (10.52547/jpbud.26.3.101).
- سجادیه خواجوئی، فرزام؛ بختیاری، صادق؛ و قبادی، سارا، (1400). «ارزیابی تأثیر آمادگی خانوار در برابر ریسک بر رشد اقتصادی ایران». اقتصاد کاربردی، 11(37): 21-35. (10.30495/jae.2021.18979).
- کردزنگنه، ناهید؛ آرمن، سید عزیز؛ و منتظرحجت، امیرحسین، (1399). «بررسی و مقایسه تأثیر بحران مالی جهانی بر اقتصاد ایران و ترکیه با استفاده: کاربرد روش(DSGE)». مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 9(35): 177-217. (10.22084/aes.2020.20761.2998).
- مرزبان، حسین؛. استادزاد، علی‌حسین، (1394). «تأثیر تحریم‌های اقتصادی برتولید و رفاه اجتماعی ایران: رهیافتی از الگوی رشد تعمیم‌یافته تصادفی». پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، 20(63): 37 – 69. (10.22054/ijer.2015.4093).
- نوفرستی، ابوالفضل؛ احمدی شادمهری، محمدطاهر؛ رزمی، سیدمحمدجواد؛ و نوفرستی، محمد، (1397). «اثر نابرابری بر رشد از کانال سرمایه‌انسانی: مطالعه موردی ایران». سیاست‌های راهبردی و کلان، 6(24): 618-643. (10.32598/JMSP.6.4.620).
 
- Ahir, H.; Bloom, N. & Furceri, D., (2019). The global economy hit by higher uncertainty. VoxEU.org.
- Akadiri, S. S.; Eluwole, K. K.; Akadiri, A. C. & Avci, T., (2020). “Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43: 273-277. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
- Amiri, F.; Derakhshani Darabi, K. & Asayesh, H., (2021). “Investigation the Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Sub-Sectors Value Added in Iran”. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran10(39): 247-267. doi: 10.22084/aes.2021.23324.3224 (In Persian).
- Anderson, D. A., (1999). “The Aggregate Burden of Crime”. Journal of Law and Economics, 42 (2): 611-642.
- Asadi, Z. & Yavari, K., (2022). “The effect of sanctions on financial instability of Iranian banks”. Quarterly Journal of Quantitative Economics, 18(4): 1-35. doi: 10.22055/jqe.2020.30490.2131 (In Persian).
- Barro, R. & Grilli, V., (1994). “Economic Growth”. In: R. Barro & V. Grilli (Eds.), European Macroeconomics (pp. 279-300). Macmillan Education UK. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-27904-3_14
- Bloom, N., (2009). “The impact of uncertainty shocks”. Econometrica, 77(3): 623-685.
- Brunnermeier, M. K. & Pedersen, L. H., (2009). “Market liquidity and funding liquidity”. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(6): 2201–2238.
- Burlaud, A., (2000). “À la recherche d’un système de mesure des performances: Application aux réseaux”. In: Fabbe-Costes, N., Colin, J., Paché, G., Éds. (2000), Faire de la recherche en logistique et distribution? Vuibert-Fnege, Paris: 261-272.
- Feinberg, R.; Husted, T. & Burnham, R., (2004). “Central city crime and suburban economic growth”. Applied Economics, 36, 917-922. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000233131
- Carter, C. K. & Kohn, R., (1994). “On Gibbs Sampling for State Space Models”. Biometrika, 81(3): 541–553. https://doi.org/10.2307/2337125
- Chow, G.; Heaver, T. & Henriksson, L., (1994). “Logistics performance: Definition and measurement”. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 24(1), 17-28.
- Christopher, M. & Lee, H., (2004). “Mitigating supply chain risk through improved confidence”. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 34(5) 388-396.
- Clark, J. M., (1917). “Business Acceleration and the Law of Demand: A Technical Factor in Economic Cycles”. The Journal of Political Economy: 217-235.
- Colicchia, C. & Strozzi, F., (2012). “Supply chain risk management: a new methodology for a systematic literature review”. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 17(4): 403-418. https://doi.org/10.1108/13598541211246558
- Daniele, V. & Marani, U., (2011). “Organized crime, the quality of local institutions and FDI in Italy: A panel data analysis”. European Journal of Political Economy, 27(1): 132-142. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2010.04.003
- Daníelsson, J.; Valenzuela, M. & Zer, I., (2022). How global risk perceptions affect economic growth. VoxEU.org
- De Jong, D. J. & de Jonge, V. N., (1995). “Dynamics and distribution of microphytobenthic chlorophyll-a in the Western Scheldt estuary (SW Netherlands)”. Hydrobiologia, 311(1): 21-30. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00008568
- Del Negro, M. & Otrok, C., (2008). Dynamic Factor Models with Time-Varying Parameters: Measuring Changes in International Business Cycles. Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Dinh, T. T.-H.; Vo, D. H.; The Vo, A. & Nguyen, T. C., (2019). “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the Short Run and Long Run: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries”. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4): 176. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/4/176
- Durbin, J. & Koopman, S. J., (2001). Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods.
- Durbin, J. & Koopman, S. J., (2002). “A Simple and Efficient Simulation Smoother for State Space Time Series Analysis”. Biometrika, 89(3): 603–615. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4140605
- Meyer, D. F. & Mothibi, L., (2021). “The Effect of Risk Rating Agencies Decisions on Economic Growth and Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa”. Journal of Risk and Financial Management14(7): 288. MDPI AG. Retrieved from http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070288
- Frühwirth-Schnatter, S., (1992). Data Augmentation and Dynamic Linear Models. Forschungsberichte / Institut für Statistik, 28. Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna.
- Gaibulloev & Sandler, (2008). “Growth Consequences of Terrorism in Western Europe”. KYKLOS, 61: 411-424.
- Ghadge, A. & Dani, S., (2012). “Supply chain risk management: Present and future scope”. The International Journal of Logistics Management, 23 (3): 313-339.
- Gordon, M. J., (1992). “The Neoclassical and a Post Keynesian Theory of Investment”. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 14(4): 425-443.
- Goulas, E. & Zervoyianni, A., (2012). “Economic growth and crime: Does uncertainty matter”. Applied Economics Letter: 420-427.
- Harvey, D., (1989). “From Managerialism to Entrepreneurialism: The Transformation in Urban Governance in Late Capitalism”. Geografiska Annaler. Series B, Human Geography, 71(1): 3–17. https://doi.org/10.2307/490503
- Heidari haratemeh, M., (2022). “Investigating the Impact of Corruption on Investment and Economic Growth”. Iranian Pattern of Progress10(2): http://www.ipoba.ir/article_150193.html?lang=en (In Persian).
- Hosseini, S. M. & Fahimi Far, F., (2013). “The role of development of the financing system and improvement of the business environment on economic growth”. The 6th conference on the development of the financing system in Iran, Tehran. https://civilica.com/doc/293533/ (In Persian).
- Karanassou, et al. (2007). “Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: New Insights on the Nordic Experience”. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 3066: 1-26.
- Kim, C. & Nelson, C., (1999). State-Space Models with Regime-Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
- Kordzangeneh, N.; Arman, S. A. & Motazerhojat, A. H., (2020). “Investigating and Comparing the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Economies of Iran and Turkey using (DSGE) Method”. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran9(35): 177-217. doi: 10.22084/aes.2020.20761.2998 (In Persian).
- Korobilis, D., (2013). “Assessing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Using Time-varying Parameter Dynamic Factor Models”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(2): 157-179. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00687.x
- Dollar, D. & Kraay, A., (2004). “Trade, Growth, and Poverty”. The Economic Journal, 114(493): F22-F49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0013-0133.2004.00186.x
- Lee, H. L., (2002). “Aligning supply chain strategies with product uncertainties”. California Management Review, 44(3): 105-119.
- Liu, P.; Peng, Y.; Shi, Y. & Yang, J., (2021). “Financial structures, political risk and economic growth”. The European Journal of Finance: 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2021.1879888
- Mankiw, N. G., (2015). Principles of Economics, Seventh Online Edition.
- Marcouiller, et al. (2002). “Insecurity and the pattern of trade: An empirical investigation”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2): 342-352.
- Marzban, H. & Ostadzad, A. H., (2015). “The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Gross Domestic Product and Social Welfare for Iran: Generalized Stochastic Growth Model”. Iranian Journal of Economic Research20(63): 37-69. doi: 10.22054/ijer.2015.4093 (In Persian).
- Mauro & Carmeci, (2007). “A Poverty Trap of Crime and Unemployment”. Review of Development Economics, 11(3): 450-462.
- McCollister, et al., (2010). The cost of crime to society: New crime-specific estimates for policy. www.elsevier.com/locate/drugalcdep, 98-109.
- Neely, A.; Gregory, M. & Platts, K., (1995). “Performance measurement system design: A literature review and research agenda”. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 15(4): 80-116.
- Noferesti, A.; Ahmadi Shadmehri, M. T.; Razmi, S. M. J. & Noferesti, M., (2018). “The effect of inequality on growth of the human capital channel: Case Study for Iran”. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies6(24): 618-643. doi: 10.32598/JMSP.6.4.620 (In Persian).
- Peri, G., (2004). “Socio-Cultural Variables and Economic”. Topics in Macroeconomics, 4(1): 1- 34.
- Prater, E., (2005). “A framework for understanding the interaction of uncertainty and information systems on supply chains”. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 35: 524-539. https://doi.org/10.1108/09600030510615833 .
- Rahbar, F.; Mozaffari Khameneh, F. & Mohammadi, Sh., (2007). “Investment Difficulties and its Effect on Economic Growth in Iran”. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)42(4). (In Persian).
- Ray, et al., (2009). “Crime, Corruption and Institutions”. Monash University Discussion paper Nr. 20: 1-52.
- Razali, A. R. & Tahir, I. M., (2011). “Review of the Literature on Enterprise Risk Management.” Business Management Dynamics, 5: 8-16.
- Rezagholizadeh, M. & Rajabpour, H., (2021). “Financial Stress, Political Risk and Economic Growth: New Evidence of Iran”. Economic Growth and Development Research12(45): 74-59. doi: 10.30473/egdr.2020.53225.5837 (In Persian).
- Romer, P. M., (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”. The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5): 1002-1037.
- Sajjadieh Khajaviee, F.; Bakhtiari, S. & Ghobadi, S., (2021). “Evaluating the Impact of Household Preparedness Against Risk on Iran's Economic Growth”. Applied Economics, 11(37): 21-35. doi: 10.30495/jae.2021.18979 (In Persian).
- Sajjadieh Khajaviee, F.; Bakhtiari, S. & Ghobadi, S., (2021). “The Impact of Country Risk Management on Economic Growth in the Selected OIC Countries [Research]”. Planning and Budgeting, 26(3): 101-130. https://doi.org/10.52547/jpbud.26.3.101 (In Persian).
- Samuelson, P. A., (1939). “Interactions between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration”. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 21(2): 75-78.
- Sanchez-Rodrigues, V.; Potter, A. & Naim, M. M., (2010). “Evaluating the causes of uncertainty in logistics operations”. International Journal of Logistics Management, 21(1): 45-64.
- Simangunsong, E.; Hendry, L. C. & Stevenson, M., (2012). “Supply-chain uncertainty: a review and theoretical foundation for future research”. International Journal of Production Research, 50(16): 4493-4523. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2011.613864
- Solow, R., (1957). “Technical Change and the aggregate production function”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39: 312-320.
- Sun, C.; Abbas, H. S. M.; Xu, X.; Gillani, S.; Ullah, S. & Raza, M. A. A., (2023). “Role of capital investment, investment risks, and globalization in economic growth”. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2): 1883-1898. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2514
- Tehrani, R.; Seraj, M.; Foroush Bastani, A. & Fallahpour, S., (2020). “Evaluation of the Effect of the Banking Sector Systemic Risk on the Macroeconomic Performance of Iran”. Financial Research Journal22(3): 297-319. doi: 10.22059/frj.2019.276790.1006830 (In Persian).
- Wang, Q.; Dong, Z.; Li, R. & Wang, L., (2022). “Renewable energy and economic growth: New insight from country risks”. Energy, 238: 122018. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122018
- West, M. & Harrison, J., (1997). Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models (2nd ed.). Springer-Verlag.
- Zare, M. H.; Ansari Samani, H.; simin, N. & Mahmoodi, Z., (2021). “The Effect of Economic, Political and Financial Risk on Capital Flight: Dynamic Panel Approach”. New economy and trad16(1): 95-127. doi: 10.30465/jnet.2021.7104 (In Persian).