Estimation of Effective Components on the Preferences of Tehran Citizens to Choose “Car-Free City Center” Using a Random-Parameter Logit Model

Document Type : Research Article


1 Ph.D. in Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.


Tehran, with an area of about 780 square Kilometres, is the largest city in Iran with a population of about 8 million people, where more than 15 million vehicular trips are made. The share of traffic in the consequences of air pollution in Tehran is estimated to be more than 55%, and traffic is the main cause of air pollution. One of the possible solutions for the problems caused by the use of private cars, especially the traffic and air pollution of Tehran in the central part of the city, is the policy of creating a “car-free city center”. For this reason, this study has been conducted with the aim of identifying and evaluating the factors affecting the preferences of Tehran citizens for the “ car-free city Center” using Random Parameter Logit Model. The findings of this study indicate that the component “Recrehigher” and the components “Dist9min” and “Dist3min” in the central part of the city, are relatively more important compared to the rest of the attributes affecting the preferences of the people of Tehran in choosing a “car-free city center”. The highest amount of “willingness to pay” of Tehran citizens are for the component of “Recrehigher” in the central part of the city, in the amount of 160,000 Rials and the components of “Dist9min” and “Dist3min” is about 120,000 Rials to 150,000 Rials per transfer in the city center areas, respectively. 


Main Subjects

- توکلی، علی؛ و حق‌شناس، حسین، (1401). «بررسی تأثیر قابلیت اطمینان زمان سفر در مدل انتخاب گونه حمل و نقل بار ریلی و جاده‌‌ای». مهندسی حمل و نقل، 13 (3): 1655- 1681.
-  جلیلی، کامجو؛ و همکاران، (1393). «کاربرد الگوی لاجیت آشیانه ای در ارزش‌گذاری خدمات گردشگری: سایت گردشگری-تفریحی گنج‌نامه همدان». محیط زیست طبیعی، منابع طبیعی ایران، 67 (3): 265-253.
- سبحانیان، سیدمحمدهادی؛ و همکاران، (1395). «بررسی مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر تصمیم پزشکان عمومی جهت ورود به طرح پزشک خانواده؛ مطالعه موردی: شهر تهران». تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی، 26: 40-7.
- عبادی، جعفر؛ و همکاران، (1393). «بررسی ترجیحات و مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر تصمیم پزشکان عمومی شاغل در مراکز دولتی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی تهران، جهت ورود به طرح پزشک خانواده». مدیریت سلامت، 56 (17): 107-95.
-  فلاح‌تفتی، مهدی؛ شهابی، سلمان؛ و تقی‌زاده، یاسر، (1397). «مدل‌سازی رفتار انتخاب وسیله کاربران وسایل نقلیه شخصی در قبال اعمال سیاست‌های مدیریت تقاضای سفر (مطالعه موردی: شهر یزد)». مهندسی حمل و نقل، 9 (4): 571.
-  گوگردچیان، مرضیه؛ و همکاران، (1395). «مدل‌های انتخاب گسسته: کاربردی از انتخاب وسیله نقلیه در شهر اصفهان». سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی، 8 (15): 23-1.
-  ممدوحی، امیررضا؛ میرمحمدی، سید اصغر، (1396). «کاربرد مدل لوجیت ترکیبی در انتخاب وسیله: مطالعه موردی سفرهای شغلی شهر مشهد». مهندسی عمران امیرکبیر، 49 (3): 581- 592.
- Adamowicz, W.; Louviere, J. & Williams, M., (1994). “Combining Revealed and Stated Preference Methods for Valuing Environmental Amenities”. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 26 (3): 271-292.
- Alpizar, F.; Carlsson, F. & Martinsson, P., (2001). Using Choice Experiments for Non-Market Valuation. Working Papers in Economics no. 52.
- Brownstone, D.; Bunch, D. & Train, K., (2000). “Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles”. Transportation research part B34: 315-338.
- Borges, D. S. B. F. & Goldner, L. G., (2015). “Implementation of car-free neigbourhoods in medium-sized cities in Brazil, a case study in Florianopolis, santa Catarina”. International journal of urban sustainable development.
- Borgers, A., et al., (2008). “Preferences for car-restrianed residential areas”. Journal of urban design, 13 (2): 257-267.
- Cameron, A. C. & Trivedi, P. K., (2005). Micro econometrics: Methods and Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Campbell, D.; Hutchinson, W. G. & Scarpa, R., (2008).  “Incorporating Discontinuous Preferences into the Analysis of Discrete Choice Experiments”. Environ Resource Econ, 41: 401–417.
- Carlson, F. & Martinsson, P., (2003). Design techniques for stated preference methods in health economics. Health economics.
- Champ, P. A., (2017). Chapter 3: Collecting Nonmarket Valuation Data. A primer on Nonmarket Valuation, Second Edition.
- De Bekker-Grob, et al., (2015). “Sample size requirements for discrete-choice experiments in health care: a practical guide”. Patient, 8: 373-384.
- Ebadi, J. et al., (2014). “Study of preferences and components affecting the decision of general practitioners working in government centers of Tehran University of Medical Sciences, to enter the family physician plan”. Health Management, 56 (17): 95-107. (In persian)
- Falah Tafti, M. et al., (2017).” Modeling the vehicle choice behavior of private vehicle users in relation to actions travel demand management policies (case study: Yazd city)”. Transportation Engineering Quarterly, 9 (4: 37): 571. (In Persian)
- Ericsson, L.; Friman, M. & Garling, T., (2008). “Stated reasons for reducing work-commute by car”. Transportation research part, 11: 427-433.
- Greene, W. H., (2018). Econometric Analysis. 8th ed. New York: Pearson
- Gundlach, A. et al., (2018). “Investigating people’s preferences for car-free city centers: A discrete choice experiment”. Transportation research part D63: 667-688.
- Gogerdchian, M. et al., (2016). “Discrete choice Models: An Application of Vehicle choice in Isfahan”. Scientific-Research Journal of Economic Policy, 15: 1- 23. (In Persian)
- Heger. M. & Sarraf, M., (2018). Air pollution in Tehran: Health costs, sources and policies. The world bank, Environment and natural resources global practice discussion paper 06.
- Hausman, J. A. & Mc Fadden, D., (1984). “Specification tests for the multinomial logit model”. Econometrica, 52 (5): 1219-1240.
- Jalili Kamjoo, et al., (2014). “Application of the nest logit model in the evaluation of tourism services: Ganjnameh Hamedan tourism-recreation site”. Natural Environment, Natural Resources of Iran, 67 (3): 253- 265. (In Persian)
- Kjaer, T., (2005). “A review of the discrete choice experiment”. Health Economics Papers, 1-143.
- Lancaster, K. J., (1996). “A new approach to consumer theory”. Journal of political economy, 74(2): 132-157.
- Louviere, J. J.; Hensher, D. A. & Swait, J. D., (2000). “Stated choice methods, analysis and applications”. Business & Economics, Cambride university press: 1-402.
- Macioszek, E. & Agatha, K., (2021). “The analysis of the factors determining the choice of Park and Ride facility using a Multinomial Logit Model”. Energies, 14: 203.
- Mamdoohi, A. R. & Mirmohammadi, S. A., (2017). “Mixed logit model application in mode choice: case of Mashhad worktrips”. Amirkabir J. Civil Eng., 49(3): 581-592. (In persian)
- Manski, C. F., (1977). “The structure of random utility models”. Theory and decision, 8 (3): 229-254.
- Melia, S., (2014). “Carfree and Low-Car Development”. In: Parking Issues and Policies. Transport and Sustainability, 5: 11-32.
- Mogas, J.; Riera, P. & Bennett, J., (2006).  “A comparison of contingent valuation and choice modelling with second-order interactions”. Journal of Forest Economics12(1: 14): 5-30.
- Paulley, N., et al., (2005). “The demand for public transport: the effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership”. Transport policy, 13: 295-306.
- Qin, H. et al., (2013). “Analysis on bus choice behavior of car owners based on intent-ji’nan as an example”. Behavioral sciences, 96: 2373-2382.
- Revelt, D. & Train, K., (1997). “Mixed logit with repeated choice: household’s choice of appliance efficiency level”. The Review of economics and statistics, 80 (4): 647-657.
- Rose, J. M. & Bliemer, C. J., (2013). “Sample size requirements for stated choice experiments”. Transportation, 40 (5): 1-1041.
- Ruiz, T. & Bernabe, J. C., (2014). “Measuring factors influencing valuation of nonmotorized improvement measures”. Transportation research part A67: 195-211.
- Ryan, M. & Hughes, J., (1997). “Using conjoint analysis to assess women’s preferences for miscarriage management”. Health Econ, 6: 261–273.
- Segerson, K., (2017). Chapter 1: Valuing Environmental Goods and Services: An Economic Perspective, A primer on Nonmarket Valuation. Second Edition.
- Small, K. & Hsiao, C., (1985). Multinomial Logit Specification Tests. International Economic Review.
- Soekhai, V. & De Bekker-Grob, E. W., (2018). “Discrete choice experiments in health economics: past, present and future”. Pharmaco Economics, 37 (2).
- Sobhanian, S. M. H.; Mehrara, M. & Ebadi, J., (2016). “Investigating the components affecting the decision of general practitioners to enter the family physician plan; Case study: Tehran”. Economic Modeling Research, 26: 7- 40. (in: Persian)
- Tavakoli, A. & Hoghsonesh, H., (2022). “Investigating the effect of travel time reliability in the model of choice the mode of transportation by rail and road”. Transportation Engineering Quarterly, 13 (3): 1655-1681.
- Train, K., (2009). Discrete choice methods with simulation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 41.
- Wylie, J. A., (2019). Reducing business opposition to car-free city centers: the case of Oslo. The international institute for industrial environmental economics.