Asymmetric Effects of Housing Price on Iran Stock Market Participation: Quantile Regression Approach

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

2 Ph.D. Student of Economic Sciences, Department of Economics, School of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran

Abstract

Increasing people's participation in the capital market is one of the important discussions in the process of economic development. Housing as a capital good and stocks are important channels in the assets market. It is of high interest to investigate the influence of these markets on each other and how housing prices can influence them and interact with them. The current research is different in its contecnt and methodology than previous studies in the followimg ways: 1- Estimation of the asymmetric effects of housing prices on participation in the Tehran Stock Exchange. 2- Using the asymmetric quantile regression method to investigate the participation model in the Iranian stock market. The main aim of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of housing prices on the participation rate in the Iranian stock market. The method used is quantile regression as it allows to present the influence of independent variables in all parts of the distribution, especially in the beginning and end sequences, without violating the classical assumptions and outlier data in the estimation of coefficients. The variables presented in the model are: logarithm of stock market index, logarithm of gold price, logarithm of unofficial exchange rate, logarithm of housing price, logarithm of GDP per capita and interest rate. The time period of this research is 1991 to 2020. The results show that housing prices in different quantiles of participation in the stock market had negative and significant effects on stock market participation. The estimation results show that the absolute value of the currency elasticity of participation in the stock market is smaller than 1, with negative sign and significant. Among other results, the negative and significant effect of gold price and interest rate, mostly  in the upper deciles are worth noting. GDP per capita and stock market efficiency have had a positive and significant effect on participation in the stock market.

Keywords

Main Subjects


- ابزری، مهدی؛ صمدی، سعید؛ و صفری، علی، (1385). «عوامل مؤثر بر جذب سرمایه‌های افراد حقیقی در بورس اوراق بهادار ( مطالعه موردی: بورس اوراق بهادار منطقه ای اصفهان)». مجلۀ پژوهشی علوم انسانی دانشگاه اصفهان، 21 (2): 131-113.
- بازوکی، نیما؛ حمیدیان، اکرم؛ محمدی، شاپور؛ و محمودی، وحید، (1392). «بررسی میزان هم‌بستگی نرخ ارزهای قیمت طلا و شاخص بورس اوراق بهادار تهران». فصلنامۀ دانش سرمایه­گذاری، 2(7): 148-131.
- باصری، بیژن؛ کیانی، غفار؛ و ملکی­پور، محمود، (1400). «جذابیت مسکن به‌عنوان یک دارایی مالی در برابر پوشش تورم و اثرگذاری آن بر تقاضای مسکن در ایران».  اقتصاد مالی، 15(55): 106-79.
- پریور، اورانوس؛ و حسنی، محبوبه، (1395). «ارزیابی پویایی­های رابطه بازار ارز، بازار سهام و بازار مسکن در ایران، با استفاده از یک مدل گارچ چند متغیره». پژوهشنامۀ اقتصاد و کسب و کار، 8(14): 29-17.
- پیکارجو، کامبیز؛ خلیلی عراقی، مریم؛ و خوش قامت احمدی، مرجان، (1390). «بررسی تاثیر حباب قیمت مسکن شهر تهران بر بازدهی بخش مسکن با استفاده از VAR». مطالعات کمی مدیریت، 2(2): 42-22.
- تقی­زاده، نفیسه؛ حمیدیان، محسن؛ و نوراله­زاده، نوروز، (1400). «واگرایی نظرات و اثر تعدیلی توجه و مشارکت سرمایه­گذاران به بازار عرضه اولیه سهام». دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار، 14(49): 41-56.
- حسن نژاد، محمد؛ و شمس، شهاب الدین، (1395). «بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر میزان مشارکت مردم در بازار سرمایه ایران». بورس اوراق بهادار، 9(34): 106-77.
- حسن­زاده، علی؛ نظریان رافیک؛ و کیانوند، مهران، (1390). «اثر شوک­های سیاست پولی بر نوسانات شاخص قیمتی سهام در ایران». فصلنامۀ پول و اقتصاد، 9: 1-44.
- حقیقت، جعفر؛ و فلاحی، فیروز، (1393). «بررسی هم‌بستگی بین تلاطم بازار سهام، ارز و سکه در ایران با استفاده از مدل DDC-GARCH». فصلنامۀ پژوهش­های اقتصادی، 14(54): 147- 123.
- رعنایی‌کردشولی، حبیب­اله؛ عباسی، عباس؛ و پشوتنی­زاده، هومن، (1396). «شبیه­سازی الگوی تأثیرات نوسانات دارایی­های رقیب سهام یر شاخص کل بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و قیمت مسکن با رویکرد پویایی­شناسی سیستمی». مجلۀ مهندسی مالی و مدیریت اوراق بهادار، 33.
- زارع، هاشمی؛ و رضایی، زینب، (1385). «تأثیر بازارهای ارز، سکه و مسکن بر رفتار شاخص بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران». مجلۀ پژوهشی دانشگاه اصفهان، 21(2): 99-112.
- سازمان اموال و املاک کوثر (1398). آثار اقتصاد مقاومتی در اقتصاد مسکن. همدان: انتشارات نور علم.
- سزاوار، محمدرضا؛ خزائی، علیرضا؛ و اسلامیان، مجتبی، (1398). «بررسی هم‌بستگی شرطی میان بازارهای ارز، طلا، مسکن، سهام و نفت در اقتصاد ایران». فصلنامۀ راهبرد اقتصادی، 8(29): 60-37.
- عبدلی، قهرمان؛ و حیدری، محمد، (1400). «بررسی واکنش نامتناسب سرمایه‌گذاران در بازار سهام ایران». راهبرد مدیریت مالی، 9(4).
- فلاحی، فیروز؛ حقیقت، جعفر؛ صنوبر، ناصر؛ و جهانگیری، خلیل، (1393). «بررسی هم‌بستگی بین تلاطم بازار سهام، ارز و سکه در ایران با استفاده از مدل DCC-GARCH». پژوهشنامۀ اقتصادی، 14(54): 147-123.
- قلی­زاده، علی‌اکبر؛ و کمیاب، بهناز، (1387). «بررسی اثر سیاست پولی بر حباب قیمت مسکن در دوره­های رونق و رکود در ایران». اقتصاد مقداری، 5(3): 77-49.
- قلی­زاده، علی‌اکبر؛ و بختیاری­پور، سمیرا، (1391). «اثر اعتبارات بر قیمت مسکن در ایران». مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 1(3): 159-179.
- قلی­زاده، علی‌اکبر؛ و طهوری متین، مسعود، (1390). «انتخاب سبد دارایی ها در دوره رکود و رونق مسکن». پژوهش­های اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، 11(3): 92-۷۱.
- قلی­زاده، علی‌اکبر؛ و نوروزی­نژاد، مریم، (1398). «پویایی‌های قیمت مسکن و نوسانات اقتصادی در ایران با رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE)». تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی، 9(36): ۷۴-۳۷.
- مرادی، مهوش؛ آهنگری، عبدالمجید؛ و آرمن، سید عزیز، (1397). «هم­حرکتی و علیت میان بازار دارایی­ها (بازار مسکن و دارایی­های مالی) در اقتصاد ایران: رویکرد آنالیز موجک». مطالعات اقتصاد کاربردی ایران، 7(28): 181-163.
- مظفری، زانا؛ کازرونی، علیرضا؛ و رحیمی، فرید، (1397). «تأثیر ساختار مالی بر بی ثباتی رشد اقتصادی ایران». پژوهش­های رشد و توسعه پایدار، 18(1): 31-1.
- مهرآرا، محسن؛ و خلیلی، سید منصور، (1390). «بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر قیمت مسکن در ایران، با استفاده از داده­های ترکیبی». فصلنامۀ پژوهش­های اقتصادی، 13: 50-23.
- نصراللهی، خدیجه؛ و آزادغلامی، اعظم، (1392). «تحلیل تأثیر تسهیلات بانکی بر قیمت مسکن در کلان شهرهای ایران». فصلنامۀ روند، 20(63 و 64): 15-38.
 
- Abel, A. B.; Eberly, J. C. & Panageas, S., (2013). “Optimal inattention to the stock market with information costs and transactions costs”. Econometrica81(4): 1455-1481.‏
- Abzari, M.; Samadi, S. & Safari, A., (2005). “Factors affecting the attraction of real people's capital in the stock exchange (Case study: Isfahan Regional Stock Exchange)”. Isfahan University Humanities Research Journal, 21 (2): 113-131. (In Persian).
- Abdulli, G. & Heydari, M., (2021). “Investigating the disproportionate reaction of investors in the Iranian stock market”. Financial Management Strategy, 9(4). (In Persian).
- Acquah-Sam, E. & Salami, K., (2013). “Knowledge and participation in capital market activities: The Ghanaian Experience”. International Journal of Scientific Research in Education6(2): 189-203.‏
- Ali, G. & Zaman, K., (2017). “Do house prices influence stock prices? Empirical investigation from the panel of selected European Union countries”. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja30(1): 1840-1849.‏
- Antonakakis, N.; André, C. & Gupta, R., (2016). “Dynamic spillovers in the United States: stock market, housing, uncertainty, and the macroeconomy”. Southern Economic Journal83(2): 609-624.‏
- Bazouki, N.; Hamidian, A.; Mohammadi, S. & Mahmoudi, V., (2012). “Investigation of the correlation between exchange rates, gold prices and Tehran Stock Exchange index”. Investment Knowledge Quarterly, 2(7): 131-148. (In Persian).
- Basri, B.; Kayani, G. & Melkipour, M., (2021). “The attractiveness of housing as a financial asset against inflation coverage and its effect on housing demand in Iran”. Financial Economics, 15(55): 106-79. (In Persian).
- Batayneh, K. I. & Al-Malki, A. M., (2015). “The relationship between house prices and stock prices in Saudi Arabia: An empirical analysis”. International Journal of Economics and Finance7(2): 156-167.‏
- Case, K. E.; Quigley, J. M. & Shiller, R. J., (2005). “Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market”. Advances in macroeconomics5(1).‏
- Chen, B. & Stafford, F. P., (2016). “Stock market participation: Family responses to housing consumption commitments”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking48(4): 635-659.‏
- Chen, X. & Ji, X., (2017). “The effect of house price on stock market participation in China: Evidence from the CHFS microdata”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade53(5): 1030-1044.‏
- Davidof, (2005). “Exchange Rates and the Current Account”. American Economic Review, 70: 960–971.   
- Davino, C.; Furno, M. & Vistocco, D., (2013). Quantile regression: Theory and applications. John Wiley & Sons.
- Falahi, F.; Truth, J.; Sabobar, N. & Jahangiri, K., (2013). “Investigating the correlation between stock, currency and coin market volatility in Iran using the DCC-GARCH model”. Economic Research Journal, 14(54): 123-147, (In Persian).
- Gokmenoglu, K. & Hesami, S., (2019). “Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index”. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(4): 687-707.
- Gholizadeh, A, A. & Kamyab, B., (2007). “Investigating the effect of monetary policy on the housing price bubble in periods of boom and recession in Iran”. Quantitative Economics, 5(3): 49-77, (In Persian).
- Gholizadeh, A, A. & Bakhtiaripour, S., (2011). “Effect of loans on housing prices in Iran”. Applied Economic Studies of Iran, 1(3): 159-179, (In Persian).
- Gholizadeh, A, A. & Tahuri Mateen, M., (2011). “Choosing the portfolio of assets during recession and housing boom”. Economic research (sustainable growth and development), 11(3): 71-92, (In Persian).
- Gholizadeh, A, A. & Nowrozi-Najad, M., (2018). “Dynamics of housing prices and economic fluctuations in Iran with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach”. Economic Modeling Research, 9(36): 74-37. (In Persian).
- Halket, J.; Nesheim, L. & Oswald, F., (2020). “The housing stock, housing prices, and user costs: The roles of location, structure, and unobserved quality”. International Economic Review61(4): 1777-1814.‏
- Haghighat, J. & Falahi, F., (2013). “Investigating the correlation between stock, currency and coin market volatility in Iran using the DDC-GARCH model”. Economic Research Quarterly, 14(54): 147-123, (In Persian).
- Hassannejad, M. & Shams, S., (2015). “Investigation of effective factors on the level of people's participation in Iran's capital market”. Stock Exchange, 9(34): 106-77, (In Persian).
- Hassan Zadeh, A.; Nazarian, R. & Kianvand, M., (2011). “The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock price index fluctuations in Iran”. Quarterly Journal of Money and Economics, 9: 1-44, (In Persian).
- Hong, G.; Khil, J. & Lee, B. S., (2013). “Stock returns, housing returns and inflation: is there an inflation illusion?”. Asia‐Pacific Journal of Financial Studies42(4): 511-562.‏
- Jensen, M. C. & Murphy, K. J., (1990). “Performance pay and top-management incentives”. Journal of political economy, 98(2): 225-264.
- Kapopoulos, P. & Siokis, F., (2005). “Stock and Real Estate Prices in Greece: Wealth Versus Credit Price Effect”. Applied Economics Letter, 12: 125-128.
- Kausar Property and Real Estate Organization, (2018). Works of Resistance Economy in Housing Economy. Hamedan: Noor Elm Publications. (In Persian).
- Koenker, R., (2005). Quantile Regression. Econometric Society Monograph, ESM38. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Koenker, R. & Bassett Jr, G., (1978). “Regression quantiles”. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50.
- Kong, D.; Cheng, Y. & Liu, S., (2021). “Unexpected housing wealth appreciation and stock market participation”. Journal of Housing Economics, 52: 101768.
- Levine, R. & Zervos, S., (1996). “Stock market development and long-run growth”. The world bank economic review10(2): 323-339.‏
- Liu, H., (2020). “Housing Investment, Stock Market Participation and Household Portfolio choice: Evidence from China's Urban Areas”. arXiv preprint arXiv:2001.01641.‏
- Mehrara, M. & Khalili, S. M., (2011). “Investigation of factors affecting housing prices in Iran, using composite data”. Economic Research Quarterly, 13: 23-50, (In Persian).
- Miller, K. & Show Fenf, G., (2001). “Is There a Long-Run Relationship Between Stock Returns and Monetary Variables: Evidence from an Emerging Market”. Applied Financial Economics, 11: 641-649.
- Moradi, M.; Abdol Majid, B. & Arman, S. A., (2017). “Co-movement and causality between the asset market (housing market and financial assets) in the Iranian economy: wavelet analysis approach”. Iranian Applied Economics Studies, 7(28): 181-163, (In Persian).
- Mozzafari, Z.; Kazeroni, A. & Rahimi, F., (2017). “The effect of financial structure on the instability of Iran's economic growth”. Sustainable Development and Growth Research, 18(1): 1-31, (In Persian).
- Nasrollahi, K. & Azad Gholami, A., (2012). “Analysis of the effect of bank facilities on housing prices in the big cities of Iran”. Trend Quarterly, 20(63 and 64): 15-38, (In Persian).
- Obstfeld, M., (1994). “Evaluating risky consumption paths: The role of intertemporal substitutability”. European Economic Review, 38(7): 1471-86.
- Paiella, M., (2009). “The stock market, housing and consumer spending: a survey of the evidence on wealth effects”. Journal of economic surveys23(5): 947-973.‏
- Pikarjo, C.; Khalili Iraqi, M. & Khoshqat Ahmadi, M., (2011). “Investigation of the effect of the housing price bubble in Tehran on the efficiency of the housing sector using VAR”. Quantitative Studies of Management, 2(2): 22-42, (In Persian).
- Prior, U. & Hosna, M., (2015). “Evaluating the dynamics of the relationship between the foreign exchange market, the stock market and the housing market in Iran, using a multivariate GARCH model”. Journal of Economics and Business, 8(14): 17-29, (In Persian).
- Pradhan, R. P.; Arvin, M. B. & Ghoshray, A., (2015). “The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries”. International Review of Financial Analysis39: 84-95.‏
- Ranai Kurdshuli, H.; Abbasi, A. & Pashutnizadeh, H., (2016). “Simulation of the model of the effects of the fluctuations of competing assets of the total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange and housing prices with the approach of systemic dynamics”. Journal of Financial Engineering and Securities Management, 33, (In Persian).
- Sezavar, M. R; Khazaei, A. & Islamian, M., (2018). “Examination of conditional correlation between foreign exchange, gold, housing, stocks and oil markets in Iran's economy”. Economic Strategy Quarterly, 8(29): 60-37, (In Persian).
- Sim, S. H. & Chang, B. K., (2006). “Stock and Real Estate Markets in Korea: Wealth or Credit-Price Effect”. Journal of Economic Research, 11: 99-122.
- Stevenson, S., (2000). “A long-term analysis of regional housing markets and inflation”. Journal of Housing Economics9(1-2): 24-39.‏
- Taghizadeh, N.; Hamidian, M. & Nurolah Zadeh, N., (2021). “Divergence of opinions and the moderating effect of investors' attention and participation in the IPO market”. Financial Science of Securities Analysis, 14(49): 41-56, (In Persian).
- Vestman, R., (2019). “Limited stock market participation among renters and homeowners”. The Review of Financial Studies, 32(4): 1494-1535.‏
- Yuan, N.; Hamori, S. & Chen, W., (2014). House Prices and Stock Prices: Evidence from a Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel in China (No. 1428).‏
- Zare, H. & Rezaei, Z., (2005). “The influence of currency, coin and housing markets on the behavior of Tehran Stock Exchange market index”. Isfahan University Research Journal, 21(2): 99-112. (In Persian).