The Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Informal Employment in Iran: DSGE Approach

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Economics, Department of Economics, Arak branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Arak branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran

4 PhD in Economic, Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.

Abstract

The information and communication technology are one of the major factors that impacts the labor market. It has always affected the nature and type of employment in the labor market, changing the type of employment from permanent, stable and formal to contractual, temporary, unstable and informal. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of information and communication technology on the labor market. This study examines the impact of information and communication technology on labor market in the context of Iran’s economy during the period 2009 to 2019, using the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, focused on duality of labor market (formal and informal). The results of the study show that the development of information and communication technology impacts both formal and informal sectors through creating job opportunities, employment, production and consumption. A survey on response functions shows that an ICT impulse initially increases formal and informal employment, but the rate of formal employment decreases after a while, and the rate of informal employment increases. It will also shift the population outside the labor force in to the labor force population, contributing to the increase of labor supply.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

- آرمن، سید عزیز؛ فرازمند، حسن؛ و دانش، حمیده، (1394). «تأثیر فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر نرخ مشارکت زنان در نیروی کار». فصلنامۀ توسعه اجتماعی، 9 (4): 184-161.
- اسفندیاری، مرضیه؛ دهمرده، نظر؛ و کاوند، حسین، (1393). «بازارکار دوگانه در چارچوب یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی برای اقتصاد ایران، فصلنامۀ پژوهش‌های اقتصادی(رشد و توسعه پایدار)». 14 (1): 217-238.
- افشاری، زهرا؛ توکلیان، حسن؛ و بیات، مرضیه، (1397). «بررسی تأثیر شاخص کل قیمت سهام بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی با استفاده از رویکرد DSGE». فصلنامۀ پژوهش‌های اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، 18 (2): 103-81.
- امامی، کریم، (1398). اقتصاد کلان رویکرد تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی. تهران: نشر آماره.
- بختیاری، صادق؛ و خوبخواهی، خجسته، (1390). «اشتغال در بازارغیررسمی و عوامل مؤثر بر آن در ایران (1385-1351)». دو فصلنامۀ جستارهای اقتصادی، 8 (15): 138 -117
- جوان، موراشین؛ افشاری، زهرا؛ و توکلیان، حسین، (1397). «سیاست پولی بهینه و بازار کار: یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی». فصلنامۀ مطالعات اقتصادی کاربری ایران، 7 (25): 28-1.
رحمیدی‌کیا، رضا؛ و عباسیان، عزت‌اله، (1397). «عوامل مؤثر بر بیکاری تکنولوژیکی و دلالت­های آن برای چشم‌انداز اقتصاد کلان ایران». فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربری ایران، 7 (28): 139-111.
- صمیمی، سحر؛ و هژبرکیانی، سحر، (1393). «اثر فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر اشتغال صنایع کارخانه­ای ایران». فصلنامۀ پژوهش­ها و سیاست­های اقتصادی، 22 (70): 74-55.
- رسولی‌نژاد، احسان؛ و نوری، مهدی، (1388). «اثر فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر اشتغال ایران». مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی، 44 (89): 107-87.
- راسخ‌جهرمی، عرفانه، (1394). «بررسی اثرات فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر اشتغال و بهره­وری نیروی کار در اقتصاد ایران». فصلنامۀ مدیریت اطلاعات و دانش‌شناسی،  2 (3): 80-73.
- سلطانی، مرجان (مترجم)، «گذراز اقتصاد غیررسمی به اقتصاد­ رسمی اجالس 104 کنفرانس بین­المللی کار». ماهنامۀ اجتماعی، اقتصادی، علمی و فرهنگی کار و جامعه، دومین ویژه‌نامۀ ششمین همایش ملی کار سازمان بین‌المللی کار دفتر بین‌المللی کار (ژنو)، سال 2014.
- عمادزاده، مصطفی؛ شهنازی، روح‌اله؛ بابکی، روح‌اله؛ و محمدزاده، عباس، (1385). «بررسی اثر فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر اشتغال». مجلۀ تحقیقات اقتصادی، 75: 221-197 .
- فطرس، محمدحسن؛ و دلائی‌میلان، علی، (1395). «بررسی اقتصاد زیرزمینی و فرار مالیاتی در چارچوب مدل­های تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE)». فصلنامۀ پژوهش­های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، 7 (25): 65-84.
- فرزین‌وش، اسداله؛ احسانی، محمدعلی؛ و کشاورز، هادی، (1392). «تکانه­های مالی و نوسانات بازار کار با وجود اصطکاک مالی». فصلنامۀ پژوهش­های اقتصادی ایران،  19 (59): 37-1.
- معاونت پژوهش‌های زیربنایی و امور تولیدی، دفتر مطالعات ارتباطات و فناوری‌های نوین، (1396)، شهریور، شمارۀ 15527.
- مقدم، غلامرضا؛ و جمالی‌پور، هدایت‌اله، (1387). «بررسی جامعه شناختی تأثیرات تکنولوژی بر نیروی کار». مجلۀ صنعت و دانشگاه، 1 (1): 82.-77
- مرادحاصل، نیلوفر؛ و مزینی، امیرحسین، (1392). «بررسی اثر نسبی فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر نابرابری جنسیتی ( مطالعه بین کشوری بازار کار)». فصلنامۀ مطالعات اجتماعی روان‌شناختی زنان، 11: 28-7.
- محمودی، مجید؛ و محمودی، الهه، (1396). «تأثیر فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات روی اشتغال بخش خدمات در ایران».‎ فصلنامۀ پژوهش­ها و سیاست­های اقتصادی. سال 19 (58): ۲۳۶-۲۱5.
- رهمتی، محمد، (1395). «اهمیت فناوری اطلاعات در ایجاد اشتغال و ارائه راهبردهای ممکن با استفاده از سیستم‌های قاعدۀ بنیان فازی». فصلنامۀ مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، 8 (4): 852-833.
 
- Afshari, Z.; Tavakolian, H. & Bayat, M., (2018). “The Effect of Stock Price Shock on Macroeconomic Variables: A DSGE Approach”. QJER. 18 (2): 81-103.
- Ahmed, S.; Ahmed, W.; Khan, S.; Pasha, F. & Rehman, M., (2012). Pakistan economy DSGE model with informality.
- Argilés-Bosch, J. Mª.; Ravenda, D. & Garcia-Blandón, J., (2020). E-commerce and labour tax avoidance. Critical Perspectives on Accounting.
- Arman, S.; Farazmand, H. & Danesh, H., (2015). “Impact of ICT on Women's Participation Rate in the Labor Force”. Quarterly Journal of Social Development (Previously Human Development), 9(4): 161-184.
- Artecona, R. & Chau, T., (2017). Labour issues in the digital economy.
- Audi, M. & Ali, A., (2019). The advancement in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and economic development: a panel analysis.
- Autor, D. & Dorn, D., (2013) “The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market”. American Economic Review, 103(5): 1553–1597.
- Bakhtiari, S. & Khoobkhahi, K., (2011). “Employment and its Affecting Factors in Iran's Informal Labor Market (1972-2006)”. Journal of Iran's Economic Essays, 8(15): 117-138.
- Berg, J.: Furrer, M.: Harmon, E.: Rani, U. & Silberman, M. S., (2018). Digital labour platforms and the future of work. Towards Decent Work in the Online World. Rapport de l’OIT.
- Berger, T. & Frey, C., (2016). Structural Transformation in the OECD: Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No.193.
- Bhattacharya, R., (2019). “ICT solutions for the informal sector in developing economies: What can one expect?”. E J Info Sys Dev Countries, 85: e12075.
- Brameshuber, E. & Zwinger, V., (2018). :Collectively Agreed (Minimum) Labour Conditions as ‘Protection Boosters”. International Journal of Comparative Labour Law and Industrial Relations, 34 (1): 77-110.
- Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A., (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. WW Norton & Company.
- Busato, F. & Bruno, Ch., (2004). “Market and Underground Activities in a Two-Sector Dynamic Equilibrium Model”. Economic Theory, 23, (4): 831–61, http://www.jstor.org/stable/25055790.
- Christiano, L. J.; Eichenbaum, M. & Evans, C. L., (2005). “Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy”. J. Political Econ. 113 (1): 1–45.
- Colombo, E.; Menna, L. & Tirelli, P., (2019). “Informality and the labor market effect s of financial crises”. World Development, 119: 1-22.
- Dalsgaard, T.; Elmeskov, J. & Park, C. Y., (2002). Ongoing changes in the business cycle-evidence and causes (No. 20). SUERF Studies.
- De Groen, W. P.; Lenaerts, K.; Bosc, R. & Paquier, F., (2017). “Impact of digitalisation and the on-demand economy on labour markets and the consequences for employment and industrial relations. Final Study”. CEPS Special Report, August 2017.
- Demand, O. L. M., (2016). ICTs and Jobs: Complements or Substitutes?
- Ebenezer, B.; Oluranti, O. I. & Kayode, B. M., Effects of information and communication technology (ict) access on the performance of informal micro-and small-business enterprises: further evidence from Nigeria.
- Edquist, C.; Hommen, L. & McKelvey, M. D., (2001). Innovation and employment: Process versus product innovation. Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Effoduh, J. O., (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab.
- Elisabeth, B. & Verena, Z., (2018). “Collectively Agreed (Minimum) Labour Conditions as ‘Protection Boosters”. International Journal of Comparative Labour Law and Industrial Relations, 34 (1): 77-110.
- Emadzadeh M.; Shahnazi R. A.; Babaki R. A. & Mohammadzadeh A. M., (2006). “The effect of ICT on employment”. Tahghighat-e-eghtesadi, 75: 197-221.
- Emami, K., (2019). Macroeconomic theory of dynamic stochastic general equation approach. Tehran: Arameh press
- Ergül, Ö. & Göksel, T., (2020). “The effects of technological development on the labor share of national income”. Economic Modelling, 87: 158-171.
- Esfandyari, M.; Dahmardeh, N. & Kavand, H., (2014). “Dual Labor Market in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of Iran”. QJER, 14 (1): 217-238.
- Farzin Vash, A.; Ehsani, M. & Keshavarz, H., (2014). “Financial Shocks and Labour Market Fluctuations with Financial Frictions”. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 19(59): 1-37.
- Fotros, M. & Dalaei Milan, A., (2016). “Examination of Underground Economy and Tax Evasion within the Framework of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGE)”. Economic Growth and Development Research, 7(25): 65-84.
- Freeman, C., (2013). Economics of industrial innovation. Routledge.
- Garcia-Murillo, M. & Velez-Ospina, J. A., (2014). The impact of ICTs on the informal economy.
- Greenwood, B.; Burtch, G. & Carnahan, S., (2017). “Unknowns of the gig-economy”. Communications of the ACM, 60(7): 27-29.
- Hamidikia, R. & Abbasian, E., (2019). “Factors Affecting Technological Unemployment and Its Implications for the Macroeconomic Outlook of Iran”. Applied Economics Studies, Iran (AESI), 7(28): 111-139.
- Hansen, G. D. & Wright, R., (1992). “The labor market in real business cycle theory”. Fed. Reserve Bank Minneap. Q. Rev. 16 (2): 2–12.
- Hemati, M., (2017). “The importance of information technology in creating occupation and representation the possibility strategies by using of fuzzy rule-based systems”. Journal of information technology management, 8(4): 833-852.
- Herman, E., (2020). “The Influence of ICT Sector on the Romanian Labour Market in the European Context”. Procedia Manufacturing, 46: 344-351.
- Hobsbawm, E. & Rudé, G., (2014). Captain swing. Verso Trade.
- Ilavarasan, P. V., (2019). “Present and future of the use and impact of information and communication technology in informal microenterprises: Insights from India”. The Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries, 85(3): e12091.
- Javan. M.; Afshari. Z. & Tavakolian. H., (2018). “Monetary policy and labor markets: a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model”. Journal of applied economics studies in Iran. 7(25): 1-28.
- Klinlampu, C.; Chaiboonsri, C.; Saosaovaphak, A. & Sirisrisakulchai, J., (2019). “An Analysis of the Impact of the Digital Economy on Change in Thailand’s Economic Trends Using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)”. In: International Conference of the Thailand Econometrics Society (Pp: 423-438). Springer, Cham.
- Koellinger, P., (2006). “Impact of ICT on Corporate Performance, Productivity and Employment Dynamics”. European Commission, 3(22): 3- 22.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2016), Automation and independent work in a digital economy: policy brief on the future of work, OECD policy brief on the future of work, May 2016, OECD Publications, Paris.
- Konkolewsky, H. H., (2017). “Digital economy and the future of social security”. Administration, 65(4): 21-30.
- Mahmoodi, M. & Mahmoodi, E., (2011). “The effects of ICT on employment of service sector in Iran”. Journal of economic research and policies, 19 (58) :213-236.
- Moghadam, H. & Jamalipoor, GH. R., (2008). “Sociological survey on recognizing the technologies impacts on work forces”. Journal of industry & university, 1(1): 77-82.
- Mokyr, J.; Vickers, C. & Ziebarth, N. L., (2015). “The history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth: Is this time different?”. Journal of economic perspectives, 29(3): 31-50.
- Moradhassel, N. & Mozayani, A., (2013). “The Relative effect of Information & Communication Technology on Gender Inequality”. Women's Studies Sociological and Psychological, 11(2): 7-28.
- OECD, (2001). The New Economy: Beyond the Hype. Final Report on the OECD Growth Project.
- Orsi, R.; Raggi, D. & Turino, F., (2012). “Estimating the size of the underground economy: A DSGE Approach”. SSRN Electronic Journal, Quaderni DSE Working Paper: 818.
- Rasekh Jahromi, E., (2015). “The effects of ICT on employment and labor productivity in Iran's economy”. Quarterly Journal of Knowledge and Information Management, 2(3): 73-80.
- Rasolinezhad, E. & Nouri, M., (2010). “The Effect of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Employment of Iran”. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 44(4): 87-107.
- Richardson, L., (2020). “Platforms, markets, and contingent calculation: The flexible arrangement of the delivered meal”. Antipode, 52(3): 619-636.
- Robert, B., (1990). Capital labor relations in oecd countries (the): from the fordist “golden age" to contrasted national trajectories. Cepremap.
- Samimi, S. & Hojabr Hiani, K., (2014). “Effect of Information and Communications Technology on Employment of Iran’s Manufacturing Industries”. QJERP., 22 (70): 55-74
- Sarangi, U., (2018). Information Economy and Data Protection Laws: A Global Perspective.
- Schmidt, F., (2017). Digital Labour Markets in the Platform Economy: Mapping the Political Challenges of Crowd Workand Gig Work.
- Soltani, M., (2014). “Transition from the informal economy to the formal economy”. International Labor Conference, scientific and cultural monthly of work and society - 6th National Labor Conference, International Labor Organization, International Labor Office (Geneva).
- Spiezia, V. & Vivarelli, M., (2002). “What Do We Know About the Effects of Information and Communication Technologies on Employment Levels?”. In: Greenan, N., L’Horty, Y., and Mairesse, J. (Eds.), Productivity, Inequality, and the Digital Economy – A Transatlantic Perspective, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.
- Spiezia, V., (2017). Jobs and skills in the digital economy. The OECD observer.
- Tripier, F., (2004). “Can the labor market search model explain the fluctuations of allocations of time?”. Econ. Modell., 21 (1): 131–146.
- Ulyssea, G., (2010). “Regulation of entry, labor market institutions and the informal sector”. Journal of Development Economics, 91(1): 87-99.
- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2017). Information economy report 2017: digitalization, trade and development. UN.
- Valsamis, D.; De Coen, A.; Vanoeteren, V. & Van der Beken, W., (2015). Employment and skills aspects of the digital single market strategy. European Parliament, Study for the EMPL Committee, Europäische Union.
- Vivarelli, M. & Pianta, M., (Eds.). (2000). The employment impact of innovation. Taylor & Francis.
- Vivarelli, M., (2007). Innovation and Employment: A Survey Institute for th- e Study ofLabor, Italy, Pp: 2-4.
- Wang, T. & Wright, G. C., (2020). “Increasing returns to scale within limits: A model of ICT and its effect on the income distribution and occupation choice”. Journal of Economic Theory, 189: 105105.
- World Economic Forum, (2016). The future of jobs: Employment, skills and workforce strategy for the fourth industrial revolution. Global Challenge Insight Report.
- World Economic Forum, (WEF) (2016). The Global Information Technology Report 2016: Innovating in the Digital Economy. World Economic Forum, Geneva.
Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 11, Issue 42
August 2022
Pages 135-169

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics