The Impact of the OPEC Summit on Iran's Oil Revenue (SVAR-Quantile Hybrid Model Approach)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 PhD Student, Department of Oil and Gas Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran (* Corresponding Author)

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

Given the economic dependence of OPEC member countries, including Iran, on crude oil prices and export earnings, and considering the fact that one of the factors affecting crude oil prices is OPEC decisions, in this study, we investigate the impact of OPEC Summit Statements (increase, decrease and stabilization of production levels) focused on Iran's oil export earnings. Therefore, from the monthly data for the period 2018-1986 in the form of three quantities: West Texas crude oil prices are below $ 40 (Q-reg1), between $ 40 and $ 70 (Q-reg2) and above $ 70 (Q-). reg3) and Structural Vector Autoregressive Model (SVAR) were used in the quantile method. The results of the estimation of the instantaneous reaction functions (IRF) in the quintiles showed that the impact of Iranian oil export earnings on oil prices increased from $ 40 to $ 40 and then $ 70. Decreases. On the other hand, in quintiles of crude oil prices below $ 40, between $ 40 and $ 70 and above $ 70, first the shock caused by the statement declines, then the shock caused by the statement increases and finally, the shock caused by the level stability statement OPEC production affects Iran's oil export earnings. Also, as crude oil prices rise, the impact of these statements on Iran's oil earnings is diminished.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran
Volume 10, Issue 37
April 2021
Pages 235-265

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