Investigating Factors Affecting Cyclical and Structural Budget Deficit in Iran

Document Type : Research Article


1 PhD student in Economics, Al-Zahra University

2 Associate Professor of Economics alzahra university

3 Professor of Economics alzahra university


The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting the structural and cyclical budget balance using Quartery data during the period of 1996-2017. Fristly, the factors affecting the cyclical and structural budget balance are identified using Sissokoand Dibooglu (2006) and inspired by Chalk (2002). Then, using the EU methodology, we will focus on the cyclical and structural components of the budget. Finally, by using SVAR Approach. The effect of effective shocks; such as   Taxes, government expenditures,GDP per capita, oil prices, inflation and terms of trade; on cyclical and structural budget deficits is investigated. According to research results, the oil prices shoks and current government expenditures are two variables that increase the adoption of discretionary decisions by governments and, consequently, the growth of structural budget deficits and the reduction of the power of influence of automatic stabilizers in the Iranian economy. And the shocks such as GDP per capita growth, inflation, investment government expenditure, and terms of trade have led to a reduction in structural deficit and increasing in the power of influence of automatic stabilizers in Iran.


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