The Relationship between dollar and euro on the basis of game theory

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Abstract

Since 2000, the economic and political deals have been dramatically changed due to the arrival of the euro in to the global currency market. Moreover, the euro currency had an influence on contribution of business trade and other currencies. However, it had a great impact on dollar as worldwide important money. At the moment after 15 years of emergence of euro in to the international finance, it seems that there is passing game between dollar and euro.  Nowadays, the investigation of relation between international variables is highly taken in to account due to improvement of international relations particularly in field of economy. The success in international market and adoption of appropriate currency and financial strategy heavily depend on recognition of international environment, variables and influential players. In this regard, the importance of currency issues is considerably high. Throughout last decade, it was observed that in addition to US dollar, the euro have had an extensive presence. This issue led to changing currency policy of countries in which to consider euro against dollar in to their currency basket. The selection of importance ratio of these two powerful money in currency basket may be decisive.  It seems that the relation between these two money can be defined not only in business deal but also in form of the game theory. This study is allocated to examine the action and reaction of these two currencies in the international environment. To accomplish this goal, the game theory and statistical model leader - satellite were used. Results indicate that the agreement between euro and dollar has been achieved after one decade struggle in prices. Furthermore, it is concluded that with respect to the proportion of these two currencies in international trade, there is Nash equilibrium in their game. Also, it is worth noting to say that after the crisis and the recent recession in Europe, dollar still plays key role and euro is follower. Other foreign currencies could also achieve satisfactory share of the market. 

Keywords


آریا، کیومرث و محبی­خواه، بیتا (1390). «بررسی تغییر ذخایر ارزی ایران از دلار آمریکا به دیگر ارزهای مورد پذیرش»، مجلهاقتصادی-ماهنامهبررسیمسائلوسیاست­هایاقتصادی، 11، 134-111.
بی­ریا، سهیلا و فرزین­وش، اسدالله (1383). «برآورد تابع تقاضای ذخایر ارزی برای کشورهای صادرکننده مواد خام»، تحقیقاتاقتصادی، 39(65)، 31-1.
خیابانی، ناصر و دهقانی، منوچهر (1393). «نقش بازار نفت در تلاطم بازارهای طلا و ارز (دلار/یورو)»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، 19(58)، 238-207.
دادجوی توکلی، عباس (1387). «بررسی آثار جایگزینی ذخایر ارزی از دلار به یورو (مورد مطالعه: ایران)»، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی‌ارشد، راهنما: ابوالقاسم مهدوی، مشاور: اسدالله فرزی نوش؛ دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران.
کمیجانی، اکبر و توکلیان، حسین (1389). «تأثیر ترکیب ذخایر خارجی بانک‌ها مرکزی بر جایگزینی یورو و دلار: مطالعه کشورهای ایران، عربستان، ترکیه و روسیه»، پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 10(2)، 43-15.
مهرآرا، محسن؛ جبل عاملی، فرخنده و براتی، مهدی (1389). «شبیه‌‌‌سازی آثار به‌کارگیری یورو به جای دلار در مبادلات نفتی»، سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی، 2(4)، 134-105.
هوشمند، محمود و فهیمی‌‌دوآب، رضا (1389). «تخمین رابطه بلندمدت قیمت حقیقی نفت خام و ارزش واقعی دلار آمریکا»، مجله دانشوتوسعه، 17(30)، 134-98.
Alington, K. (2005). “One Market, One Money, one Price”, Journal of Central Banking, 73-115.
Blue Book (2007). “Payment and Securities Settlement System in the European Union”, in ECB, August, 12-72.
Breitenfellner, A. and Cuaresma, J. C. (2008). “crude oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rates: A Forecasting Exercise”, Monetary Policy & the Eeconomy Q4/08, 102-121
Baldwin, B. R. (2005). “The Effect of the Euro Evidence from Sectoral Studies, in ECB (2008)”, 10 Years ECB, 99-112.
Chinn, M. and Frankel, J. (2007). Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?, R. Clarida (ed.), G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, NBER Report, University of Chicago Press, 283-321.
Eichengreen, B. (2005). “Sterling’s Past, Dollar’s Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition”, NBER Working Paper, No. 11336.
Elke, M. (2005). “Kontroversen in Der Internationalen Währungspolitik. Retrospektive zu Keynes-White-Boughton und IMF”, In: Intervention, Zeitschrift für Ökonomie, 57-73.
European Central Bank (ECB) (2008). The International Role of Euro, Julay, 15-69.
18- European Central Bank (ECB) (2014). The International Role of Euro, Julay, 65.
Melhem, S. and Terraza, M. (2007). The oil single price and the dollar.Agricultural and Resource Economics West Virginia University
Novotny, F. (2012). "The Link between the Brent Crude Oil Price and the us Dollar Exchange rate", Prague Economic Papers, 2.
Ozturk, I. (2008). “Do Oil Prices Affect the USD/YTL Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey”. Privredna kretanja i ekonomska politika.
Zhang, Y. J.; Fan, Y.; Tsai, H. T. and Wei, Y. M. (2008). “Spillover Effect of us Dollar Exchange Rate on Oil Prices”, Journal of Policy Modeling 30(6), 973-991.
Zrada, J. (2010); “Oil Prices and the us Dollar Exchange Rate Correlation orCausality”.