Iran’s Short term Natural Gas Pricing in the North-East Part Assumed Hub (According to Schwartz-Smith two factors model)

Document Type : Research Article

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Abstract

This paper examines the possibility of natural gas pricing in assumed hub formation in Northwestern Iran, in the Turkey border line for exporting natural gas to Europe by the Schwartz-Smith (S-S)two factors modelas a reduced form model. In the recent years European countries would like to purchasing natural gas in order to short term contracts and it seems in near future market movment is toward mentioned contract. However it is a good chance for Iran’s natural gas export to European countries additionaly evral ntruption of natural gas export convey from Russia to Europe will highlight Iran’s position in the natural gas trade to Europe.Based on the S-S model results stochastic range of natural gas price simulated for oil price between 35 to 100 $/bbl.Natural gas CIF dynamic simulation is based on average of six main European hubs,then according to net back calculation estimated natural gas FOB price in Iran’s North-East hub.According to the model results FOB average price ranges is between 232 to 335 $/1000 cubic Meters.Comparison long term and short term simulated price has not any significant diffrences and if Iran exercise short term contract can increase trade flexibility in market and also made an advantage from transit fee of nighburing countries who interested to develop natural gas export to European market.Hub formation can be applied as a natural gas pricing focal point for all the buyers.

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