Uncertainty of Oil Proved Reserves and Economic Growth in Iran

Document Type : Research Article


Ph.D. student, Department of Economics, Alzahra University


The relationship between the oil as a one of the principal factors in the production and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. Also, on the base of some optimistic new economic growth models, uncertainty of non-renewable proved reserves through positive probability including technology growth and discovering unexpected reserves, is one of the factors which positively affects on the economic growth; therefore, time allocation of non-renewable energy resources to ensure long term economic growth and intergenerational justice is not important. So, to find some evidences about it, in this research we try to find experimentally direct effects of uncertainty of oil proved reserves on macroeconomics of Iran by using annually data from 1980 to 2013 by using Multivariate GARCH-in-mean VAR model. We find that uncertainty in oil proved reserves has not had statistically significant effect on aggregate output in the country in our sample, which time allocation of non-renewable oil proved reserves to ensure long term economic growth and intergenerational justice must be attend. We also find some evidence that the responses to positive and negative shocks are symmetric.


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